Systemic Risks
Some risks live in the connections between systems, or on horizons beyond any budget cycle. This programme relates global, catastrophic and long-term risk practice and the scenario and foresight methods that let those risks be stated, compared and revisited as evidence changes. Each artefact of these areas carries a UNI (Unique Nexus Identifier).
- Global and systemic risk: couples with
compound-and-cascading-hazard-standards,financial-stability-and-prudential-risk,supply-chain-and-trade-risk,future-generations-and-long-term-risk. - Global catastrophic and existential: couples with
frontier-technology-risk-standards,climate-risk-standards,food-security-and-nutrition-risk,future-generations-and-long-term-risk. - Future generations and long-term risk: couples with
global-catastrophic-and-existential-risk-standards,climate-adaptation-and-transition-risk,global-and-systemic-risk,frontier-technology-risk-standards. - Scenarios, models and foresight: couples with
ai-and-models-standards,finance-and-payments-data,decision-records-and-accountability.
Summary
- Programme
nexustandards.com/systemic-risk/ - StatusIn preparation.
- Areas4 · 1 catalogued
- Nexus StandardsNS-0, NS-3, NS-9, NS-10, NS-11, NS-14, NS-13, NS-12, NS-3b
- Open standards14
- Data sources9
- Couplings20 with 9 programmes
Area profiles are proposed.
- Areas
- 4
- 1 catalogued, 3 proposed
- Nexus Standards
- 9
- applied across the areas
- Open standards
- 14
- named and linked, never reproduced
- Data sources
- 9
- listed for reference
- UNI
- requested · allocation in progress
- Status
- Proposedin preparation
- Last reviewed
- area profile
Nexus Standards (2026). Systemic Risks: a programme of the Nexus Standards. Proposed. https://nexustandards.com/systemic-risk/. Last reviewed 17 October 2026.
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Couplings, indicators and sources
The couplings with other programmes, the indicators, the references and the data sources the programme draws on.
Couplings with other programmes
20 couplings link the areas of this programme with 9 other programmes, counted in both directions from the area profiles.
| Coupled programme | Couplings | Example mechanism |
|---|---|---|
| Digital, Cyber and AI | 5 | Mechanism: some frontier technologies carry catastrophic tail risk.Frontier technology risk standards to Global catastrophic and existential risk standards |
| Finance, Insurance and the Economy | 5 | Mechanism: financial contagion is a core systemic channel.Financial stability and prudential risk to Global and systemic risk |
| Hazards and Disaster Risk Reduction | 3 | Mechanism: cascades across sectors are the core of systemic risk.Compound and cascading hazard standards to Global and systemic risk |
| Climate and Earth Systems | 2 | Tail risk: high-end warming and tipping cascades are catastrophic scenarios.Global catastrophic and existential risk standards to Climate risk standards |
| Data and Evidence | 1 | Decisions taken under deep uncertainty record which scenarios and robustness tests were considered.Scenarios, models and foresight to Decision records and accountability |
| Health and Biosecurity | 1 | Cascade: pandemics trigger economic and social cascades.Health security and One Health to Global and systemic risk |
| Humanitarian Action and Development | 1 | The Declaration on Future Generations’ commitment to foresight is carried into scenario and long-horizon risk records in the Systemic Risks programme.Pact for the Future alignment to Future generations and long-term risk |
| Industry, Trade and Supply Chains | 1 | Cascade: production networks propagate local shocks globally.Global and systemic risk to Supply chain and trade risk |
How a shock travels through this system
A system model of this programme built from the registry: 16 hazards, 14 systems, 8 sectors, 15 controls, 9 feeds, 6 indicators. Select the components to include, choose an initiating hazard and run the scenario. Stress propagates through the hazard relations of the Nexus Hazard Standard (NHS-1), the exposure of each system, the recorded couplings and the sectors that carry the loss; adopted standards dampen transmission and live data sources support detection. All parameters are stated assumptions that the reader can adjust; results are illustrative scenario outputs for exercises and training, not forecasts or risk assessments. The Map view places the same run on an example geography, Bangladesh, a region suited to the hazards named, with open data: country boundaries, a grid of hexagonal cells and NASA satellite layers for the initiating hazard. The geography serves exercises and training and is not an assessment of that place.
Hazards
- Dam failure
- Financial contagion
- Nuclear war
- River flood (set off downstream)
- Flash flood (set off downstream)
- Mass displacement (set off downstream)
- Nuclear detonation (set off downstream)
- Health-system overload (set off downstream)
- Widespread power outage (set off downstream)
- Water supply shortfall (set off downstream)
- Sovereign debt crisis (set off downstream)
- Currency crisis (set off downstream)
- Nuclear winter (set off downstream)
- High-altitude electromagnetic pulse (set off downstream)
- Simultaneous multi-region crop failure (set off downstream)
- Satellite space-environment anomaly (set off downstream)
Systems and couplings
- Global and systemic risk
- Global catastrophic and existential risk standards
- Future generations and long-term risk
- Scenarios, models and foresight
- Compound and cascading hazard standards Mechanism
- Financial stability and prudential risk Mechanism
- Supply chain and trade risk Cascade
- Frontier technology risk standards Mechanism
- Climate risk standards Tail risk
- Food security and nutrition risk Cascade
- Climate adaptation and transition risk Mechanism
- AI, models and agents Coupling
- Finance and payments data Coupling
- Decision records and accountability Coupling
Controls
NS-0Constitution and principlesNS-3Risk record UNIs (grammar, legacy crosswalk, allocation authority)NS-9Contextual UNIs (deployments, instances, programme instances)NS-10Policies and clauses (machine-readable obligations: definition, binding, evaluation and enforcement)NS-11Verification and monitoring (evidence, attestations, zero-trust conformance observation)NS-14Conformance and crosswalk to external standardsNS-13Standards development process (open proposals, review, versioning, adoption)NS-12Software, model and AI/ML artefacts (supply chain, model cards, dataset sheets)NS-3bDataset and product metadata profile (STAC, DCAT, PROV-O)NRS-H120Hazard family: Structural fragility of interconnected systems (NHS-1 sys.fragility)NRS-H65Hazard family: Planetary boundary transgressions (NHS-1 planet.boundary)NRS-H83Hazard family: Health system capacity failure (NHS-1 health.system)NRS-U12Universe platform profile: Foresight NexusNRS-H7Hazard family: Large-scale circulation anomalies (NHS-1 atmo.climate-mode)NRS-H62Hazard family: Compound and multi-hazard events (NHS-1 sys.compound)
Observation
- INFORM Risk Index (listed for reference)
- World Bank Open Data and World Development Indicators API (listed for reference)
- IMF data services (WEO, IFS, FSI via SDMX) (listed for reference)
- Our World in Data datasets (listed for reference)
- Sentry impact monitoring API (listed for reference)
- CMIP6 climate projections (Copernicus Climate Data Store) (listed for reference)
- NGFS scenarios database (listed for reference)
- SSP Scenario Explorer (listed for reference)
- Copernicus Climate Data Store (CMIP6 projections) (listed for reference)
- Direct economic loss attributed to disasters in relation to global GDP
- Macroeconomic Dashboard
- Number of deaths and missing persons attributed to disasters per 100,000 population
- Number of countries with mechanisms in place to enhance policy coherence of sustainable development
- Number of countries with NDCs, long-term strategies, NAPs and adaptation communications
- National DRR strategies (forward-looking risk assessment component)
Example geography
- Bangladesh: 134 hexagonal cells
- Night lights tonight, outages (VIIRS Day/Night Band), NASA GIBS
- Surface water through cloud, 30 m (OPERA DSWx-S1 radar), NASA GIBS
- Rain rate, last half hour (IMERG), NASA GIBS
- Surface soil moisture (SMAP), NASA GIBS
The programme at work
Its development and participation, the areas it holds, the standards that apply and the channels to related areas.
Areas of Systemic Risks
4 areas, each with its tier, registry status, the Nexus Standards it lists, the open standards it references, its data sources and its couplings.
- 01Global and systemic riskRisk disciplinesStatusproposedNexus StandardsNS-0 · NS-3 · NS-9 · NS-10 · NS-11 · NS-14Open standards5Data sources3Couplings4
- 02Global catastrophic and existential risk standardsHazard and threat familiesStatus
listed·plannedNexus StandardsNS-0 · NS-9 · NS-11 · NS-13Open standards4Data sources2Couplings4 - 03Future generations and long-term riskRisk disciplinesStatusproposedNexus StandardsNS-0 · NS-9 · NS-10 · NS-11 · NS-13Open standards4Data sources3Couplings4
- 04Scenarios, models and foresightCross-cutting capabilitiesStatusproposedNexus StandardsNS-12 · NS-3b · NS-11Open standards5Data sources3Couplings3
Area index1 of 4 areas have a catalogue entry; the others are proposed, each with a complete expert brief.
Transmission channels to related areas and programmes
The systemic couplings recorded for this context, grouped by transmission mechanism. The bar summarises each mechanism (select one to filter); each entry names the connected area or programme and describes the mechanism.
The interactive view requires JavaScript; the sections below present the same records.
Working groups, participation and learning
How to take part, the proposed working groups, the readiness pathways, learning at Risk Academy, the institutions of the network and common questions.
Participation and governance
- 01
Charter a working group
Select an area above, adopt its proposed charter and submit it as a public change record under NS-13; the editors decide with written reasons. Develop a standard.
- 02
Amend an area brief
Propose an amendment to an area profile, citing a peer-reviewed or official source.
- 03
Propose a data source
Propose a source with its provider, licence and delivery path for licence review.
- 04
National participation
Each participating country takes part through its National Nexus Consortium (NNC). The National Standards Council (NSC) decides adoption, adaptation or reference in its jurisdiction, and National Working Groups (NWGs) draft national inputs and run field exercises. Competent national authorities are engaged through official channels.
- 05
Contribute at the issuing body
Contributions to an external standard are made through the issuing body’s own channels; outcomes are reflected here as register changes. Movement and contribution.
Questions and answers
What is the status of Systemic Risks?
What is the basis of the area briefs?
How are data sources presented?
Contribute evidence from this page.
Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
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Every figure on this page is indexed: hazards, climate, conflict, the world.
The Index is the Consortium’s indexing system for risk data. Every indicator, hazard, series and country profile carries its Nexus Standards identifier, its source and its licence, so what this page shows can be traced, corrected and reused.
- 01 · Sources205 registered sourcesEvery value keeps its source and licence; withheld values are counted.Data and licences
- 02 · Nexus StandardsNIS-1 and NHS-1451 indicators, 905 hazards; every record carries a UNI.Nexus Standards
- 03 · The Index54 series, 195 country profilesComputed on the standards; no value is published until an edition is released.The Global Risks Index
- 04 · This pageSystemic RisksMaps, figures and feeds read the Index in the context of hazards, climate, conflict.Public API
global, sector, strategic, technology, thematicSeries in this context hazards, climate, conflict
- GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap…NXS-GRX-AR-000002Hazards · Climate · Conflict
- THDisaster Risk Intelligence (DRI)Signals, observations, event streams, geospatial layers and scenario packs turned into structured risk intelligence for preparedness and planning.NXS-GRX-AR-000111Hazards · Climate · Conflict
- GSGlobal CitiesUrban exposure, heat, flooding, informal settlement, service dependency and the economic weight of cities at risk.NXS-GRX-AR-000068Hazards · Infrastructure · Climate
- GSGlobal ClimateChronic and acute physical climate hazard, transition exposure, adaptation gaps and scenario pathways to 2030, 2050 and 2100.NXS-GRX-AR-000065Climate · Hazards · Finance
Country profiles the world
Every country profile carries the source and licence of each value. Correct a value or reply.
Hazard domains NHS-1
- Atmosphere and weatherNXS-GRX-AR-000135
- Solid EarthNXS-GRX-AR-000138
- Systemic and compound eventsNXS-GRX-AR-000148
Geodata and API open
Open layers on an equal-area hexagon grid, shown as densities per km² or as symbols: People · GHSL 2025People · WorldPop 2025Built-up areaPortsAirportsRoadsRailwaysRivers and lake centrelines.
/api/v1/public/grix · https://nexustandards.com/uni/{uni}
Developers · Data · Made with Natural Earth, Public domain; GHSL and WorldPop, CC BY 4.0.
Snapshot of the Index registries pinned 2026-10-23 · 22c6eed. Research and risk-analytics information: not a rating, an official classification, a warning, a benchmark or advice.
Contribute to Systemic Risks
Institutions and experts are invited to charter a working group, amend an area brief or propose a data source. National participation is organised through each country’s National Nexus Consortium (NNC) and its National Working Groups (NWGs); competent national authorities are engaged through official channels.
Status and use. The Nexus Standards are proposed standards developed through an open process under NS-13 and published for voluntary use; they do not constitute certification, accreditation or regulatory approval, and adoption remains a decision of the Global Standards Council and, in each country, of its National Standards Council. A UNI (Unique Nexus Identifier) identifies an artefact; it does not certify it. Names of standards bodies and their standards belong to their stewards and are used only to identify the documents; no text of an external standard is reproduced here. Nexus Standards is not affiliated with, endorsed by or certified by any standards body named here.
Licences: CC BY 4.0 for standards text, registries, schemas and data; Apache-2.0 for reference code. External standards are cited by name, number and link under their own licences. Third-party data, libraries and fonts keep their own licences: see Third-party notices.