- United States 2026
- Chapter 4
Risks and capability
Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1America’s risk is coupled, not cumulative
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Western heat, fire and grid summer
- 6Lenses and readings
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
4.1Risk objects
Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.
ReportedEQL 4RSK-USA-CLI-001
Wildfire at the urban edge, with insurance retreat
- Driver
- heat, drought and wind; longer fire seasons
- Exposure
- wildland–urban interface communities
- Vulnerability
- rising premiums and non-renewals21
- Capacity
- fire services; building codes; residual insurers
- Cascade
- CLI → BIO → HLT · CLI → FIN
- Horizon
- seasonal · 1 and 5 years
ReportedEQL 4RSK-USA-ENE-002
Grid failure in heat or cold extremes
- Driver
- extreme heat and cold; new load growth
- Exposure
- regions with thin reserve margins32
- Vulnerability
- winterisation gaps; gas–power interdependence31
- Capacity
- interconnection; demand response; storage
- Cascade
- ENE → WAT → HLT
- Horizon
- seasonal
ReportedEQL 4RSK-USA-WAT-003
Western drought and Colorado River shortage
- Driver
- low flows; heat; over-allocation
- Exposure
- cities, farms and hydropower of the Southwest
- Vulnerability
- reservoirs near minimum levels
- Capacity
- shortage
rules;conservation;groundwater - Cascade
- WAT → ENE, FOO, cities
- Horizon
- 1–5 years
ReportedEQL 3RSK-USA-CLI-004
Compound hurricane, surge and inland flooding
- Driver
- warmer oceans; heavier rainfall
- Exposure
- Gulf and Atlantic coasts; inland river valleys
- Vulnerability
- low flood-insurance take-up40
- Capacity
- forecasting and evacuation; flood insurance
- Cascade
- CLI → INF → ENE, HLT, FIN
- Horizon
- annual
4.2Capability ladder
Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.
| Function | Rung | Level | Strongest public evidence at baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prevention and mitigation | EXISTS | building codes and land-use rules vary by state and locality | |
| Monitoring and observation | DEMONSTRATED | national weather, water and Earth-observation programmes in continuous use | |
| Early warning | DEMONSTRATED | National Weather Service warnings and wireless alerts in real events | |
| Preparedness and planning | EXISTS | national preparedness reporting20; national risk index14 | |
| Redundancy and reserves | EXISTS | strategic reserves for some commodities; grid reserve margins thin in places32 | |
| Response | DEMONSTRATED | federal, state and local response in major disasters | |
| Continuity of critical services | EXISTS | critical functions defined18; 2021 grid failure showed gaps31 | |
| Recovery | EXISTS | federal disaster assistance and state programmes | |
| Adaptation | EXISTS | infrastructure investment law of 202128 | |
| Social protection | EXISTS | income and food assistance programmes | |
| Finance and insurance | EXISTS | deep private markets; flood cover largely public40 | |
| Institutional coordination | EXISTS | federal–state–tribal frameworks, tested event by event | |
| Technical infrastructure | EXISTS | ageing assets across water, power and transport | |
| Workforce | EXISTS | emergency and health workforce pressures documented | |
| Research capacity | ADEQUATE | national laboratories and universities; translation uneven | |
| A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline. | |||
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references.
- 21Federal Insurance Office (ed.), Analyses of U.S. Homeowners Insurance Markets, 2018–2022: Climate-Related Risks and Other Factors. U.S. Department of the Treasury, Washington, DC, January 2025.back
- 32North American Electric Reliability Corporation (ed.), 2025 Summer Reliability Assessment. NERC, Atlanta, GA, 2025.back
- 31Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and North American Electric Reliability Corporation (eds.), February 2021 Cold Weather Outages in Texas and the South Central United States. FERC and NERC, Washington, DC, 2021.back
- 40Federal Emergency Management Agency (ed.), National Flood Insurance Program: program description and policy statistics. FEMA, Washington, DC, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
- 20Federal Emergency Management Agency (ed.), 2024 National Preparedness Report. FEMA, Washington, DC, 2024.back
- 14Federal Emergency Management Agency (ed.), National Risk Index: Technical Documentation. FEMA, Washington, DC, 2023.back
- 18Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (ed.), National Critical Functions: An Evolved Lens for Critical Infrastructure Security and Resilience. CISA, Washington, DC, 2019.back
- 28U.S. Congress (ed.), Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, Public Law 117-58. Washington, DC, 2021.back