Systems and sectors at baseline

5 min read0 figures2 tables16 notesNR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE.

Contents

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

WAT · Water

Total freshwater and saline withdrawals

322bn gal/day

Thermoelectric power took 41% and irrigation 37%.

Reported2015USGS⁷

ENE · Energy

Data centres’ share of US electricity

4.4%

6.7–12% projected for 2028.

Reported2023LBNL⁶

FOO · Food

Households food insecure

13.5%

about 18 million households in 2023.

Reported2023USDA ERS¹¹

HLT · Health

Heat-related deaths

2,325deaths

a record; heat deaths rose sharply after 2016.

Reported2023JAMA⁹

BIO · Biodiversity

Animal species at risk of extinction

40%

and 34% of plant species.

Reported2023NatureServe¹⁰

SYS · Cross-system

North American disaster losses · insured

133 · 93US$ bn

led by the Los Angeles wildfires at about US$53 billion.

Reported2025Munich Re²

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
Domain	Posture at baseline	Coupling	Status
WAT	Ample in the East, tight in the West; Colorado River under shortage; major aquifers depleting.	WAT → ENE cooling · WAT → FOO irrigation	Reported EQL 4
ENE	Gas-led power with growing renewables; reliability stressed in extremes; data-centre load rising.	ENE ↔ WAT · ENE → HLT	Reported EQL 4
FOO	A leading producer and exporter; 13.5% of households food insecure in 2023.	FOO ← WAT, ENE · FOO → TRD	Reported EQL 4
HLT	Record heat deaths in 2023; smoke and storms load health services.	HLT ← CLI, ENE	Reported EQL 4
BIO	About 40% of animal species at risk; wildfire and land use the fastest pressures.	BIO → WAT · BIO ← fire	Reported EQL 3
CLI	Warming faster than the global average; billion-dollar disasters every three weeks.	forcing on all five systems	Reported EQL 5
INF	Ageing grids, water systems and roads; critical functions defined nationally.	INF → ENE, WAT, HLT	Inferred EQL 3
FIN	Largest insured losses in the world; cover retreating in high-risk areas.	FIN ← CLI · FIN → households, states	Reported EQL 4
DAT	Cloud and data-centre hub of the world economy; cyber exposure of utilities.	DAT → ENE, HLT, FIN	Inferred EQL 3
AIC	Data centres about 4.4% of electricity in 2023 and rising.	AIC → ENE, WAT	Reported EQL 4
MIN	50 minerals on the critical list; import reliance for many.	MIN → ENE, AIC	Reported EQL 3
TRD	Tariff changes in 2025 reshape supply chains and prices.	TRD → all sectors	Inferred EQL 3

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
Code	Sector	Baseline evidence	Exposure to watch	Evidence coverage
GS-00	Cross-system	coupled losses across perils²¹⁵	compound heat–fire–grid summers	PARTIAL
GS-01	Water	Western shortage; aquifer depletion⁷⁸	drought; allocation conflict	PARTIAL
GS-02	Energy	gas-led mix; new load from data centres⁵⁶	heat and cold extremes	GOOD
GS-03	Food	leading producer²²	drought; aquifer decline	GOOD
GS-04	Health	record heat deaths, 2023⁹	heat and smoke surges	PARTIAL
GS-05	Finance	largest insured losses²	insurance retreat²¹	GOOD
GS-06	Development	food insecurity 13.5% of households¹¹	uneven recovery capacity	PARTIAL
GS-07	Climate	warming faster than global average³	extremes of heat, rain and fire	GOOD
GS-08	Disaster	27 billion-dollar events, 2024¹⁵	frequency of medium events	GOOD
GS-09	Infrastructure	critical functions defined¹⁸	ageing assets	PARTIAL
GS-10	Cities	growth in hot and dry metros	heat and water stress	PARTIAL
GS-11	Biodiversity	40% of animal species at risk¹⁰	fire and land use	PARTIAL
GS-12	Earth observation	strong federal observation programmes	continuity of missions	PARTIAL
GS-13	Cyber and digital	critical-infrastructure guidance¹⁹	attacks on utilities	PARTIAL
GS-14	Policy	major infrastructure and energy laws²⁸²⁹	policy change since 2025	PARTIAL
GS-15	Science	deep research base	translation into operations	THIN

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references.

7C. A. Dieter, M. A. Maupin, R. R. Caldwell et al., Estimated Use of Water in the United States in 2015, Circular 1441. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, 2018.back
6A. Shehabi, S. J. Smith, A. Hubbard et al., 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, December 2024.back
11USDA Economic Research Service (ed.), Household Food Security in the United States in 2023. USDA ERS, Washington, DC, December 2024.back
9J. T. Howard, N. Androne, K. C. Alcover and A. R. Santos-Lozada, “Trends of heat-related deaths in the US, 1999–2023,” JAMA, vol. 332, no. 14, pp. 1203–1204, 2024.back
10NatureServe (ed.), Biodiversity in Focus: United States Edition. NatureServe, Arlington, VA, 2023.back
2Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.back
15NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (ed.), U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters, 1980–2024. NOAA NCEI, Asheville, NC, January 2025.back
8U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (ed.), “Reclamation announces 2022 operating conditions for Lake Powell and Lake Mead.” News release, Washington, DC, August 2021.back
5U.S. Energy Information Administration (ed.), “Electricity in the United States” and Electric Power Monthly. EIA, Washington, DC, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
22USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (ed.), 2022 Census of Agriculture. USDA NASS, Washington, DC, 2024.back
21Federal Insurance Office (ed.), Analyses of U.S. Homeowners Insurance Markets, 2018–2022: Climate-Related Risks and Other Factors. U.S. Department of the Treasury, Washington, DC, January 2025.back
3A. R. Crimmins, C. W. Avery, D. R. Easterling, K. E. Kunkel, B. C. Stewart and T. K. Maycock (eds.), Fifth National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, 2023.back
18Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (ed.), National Critical Functions: An Evolved Lens for Critical Infrastructure Security and Resilience. CISA, Washington, DC, 2019.back
19The White House (ed.), National Security Memorandum on Critical Infrastructure Security and Resilience (NSM-22). Washington, DC, April 2024.back
28U.S. Congress (ed.), Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, Public Law 117-58. Washington, DC, 2021.back
29U.S. Congress (ed.), Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, Public Law 117-169, as amended by Public Law 119-21 (2025). Washington, DC.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In United States Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the United States’ Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report.