Key findings

Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

3 min read1 figure0 tables12 notesNR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE.

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1America’s risk is coupled, not cumulative
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Climate forcing
    3. 2.3 Finance
    4. 2.4 Energy
    5. 2.5 Water
    6. 2.6 Health
    7. 2.7 Food
    8. 2.8 Biodiversity
    9. 2.9 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Western heat, fire and grid summer
  8. 6Lenses and readings
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-FIN-002

North America carried US$133 billion of the US$224 billion in global natural-disaster losses in 2025; about US$93 billion, roughly 70%, was insured.

Figure 2.1North American disaster losses, 2025 (US$ billion)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Insured93
Uninsured40

Source: Munich Re NatCatSERVICE 20252; uninsured = overall − insured.

Implication

High insured shares can hide a growing gap at the margins. Where premiums rise and insurers withdraw, uninsured losses concentrate among households least able to bear them and shift onto state and federal budgets2140.

What would move it

Non-renewal rates in high-risk states, reforms of residual-market insurers, and the 2026 and 2027 loss years would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

    Gross greenhouse-gas emissions were 6,343 Mt CO₂e in 2022; net emissions were about 17% below 2005.1.

  2. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-CLI-004

    The contiguous United States has warmed about 1.4 °C since 1970, faster than the global average.3.

  3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-CLI-005

    There were 27 billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2024, after a record 28 in 2023.15.

2.3Finance

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-FIN-002

    North America carried US$133 billion of 2025’s US$224 billion in global disaster losses; about US$93 billion was insured.2.

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-FIN-003

    The January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires caused about US$53 billion in losses, US$40 billion insured, the costliest wildfire disaster on record.2.

2.4Energy

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-ENE-006

    Data centres used about 4.4% of US electricity in 2023, with 6.7–12% projected for 2028.6.

2.5Water

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-WAT-007

    Water withdrawals were about 322 billion gallons a day in 2015; thermoelectric power took 41% and irrigation 37%.7.

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-WAT-008

    The first-ever shortage on the Colorado River was declared in August 2021 for the lower basin.8.

2.6Health

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-HLT-009

    Heat-related deaths reached a record 2,325 in 2023.9.

2.7Food

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-FOO-010

    13.5% of US households were food insecure in 2023.11.

2.8Biodiversity

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-BIO-011

    About 40% of animal species and 34% of plant species in the United States are at risk of extinction.10.

2.9Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing runs from Western heat and drought through wildfire and grid stress into health, water and insurance availability. §9.3.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references.

  1. 2Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.back
  2. 21Federal Insurance Office (ed.), Analyses of U.S. Homeowners Insurance Markets, 2018–2022: Climate-Related Risks and Other Factors. U.S. Department of the Treasury, Washington, DC, January 2025.back
  3. 40Federal Emergency Management Agency (ed.), National Flood Insurance Program: program description and policy statistics. FEMA, Washington, DC, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
  4. 1U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (ed.), Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2022. EPA, Washington, DC, April 2024.back
  5. 3A. R. Crimmins, C. W. Avery, D. R. Easterling, K. E. Kunkel, B. C. Stewart and T. K. Maycock (eds.), Fifth National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, 2023.back
  6. 15NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (ed.), U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters, 1980–2024. NOAA NCEI, Asheville, NC, January 2025.back
  7. 6A. Shehabi, S. J. Smith, A. Hubbard et al., 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, December 2024.back
  8. 7C. A. Dieter, M. A. Maupin, R. R. Caldwell et al., Estimated Use of Water in the United States in 2015, Circular 1441. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, 2018.back
  9. 8U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (ed.), “Reclamation announces 2022 operating conditions for Lake Powell and Lake Mead.” News release, Washington, DC, August 2021.back
  10. 9J. T. Howard, N. Androne, K. C. Alcover and A. R. Santos-Lozada, “Trends of heat-related deaths in the US, 1999–2023,” JAMA, vol. 332, no. 14, pp. 1203–1204, 2024.back
  11. 11USDA Economic Research Service (ed.), Household Food Security in the United States in 2023. USDA ERS, Washington, DC, December 2024.back
  12. 10NatureServe (ed.), Biodiversity in Focus: United States Edition. NatureServe, Arlington, VA, 2023.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In United States Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the United States’ Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report.

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