References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

10 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE.

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1America’s risk is coupled, not cumulative
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Western heat, fire and grid summer
  8. 6Lenses and readings
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 40 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.140 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (ed.), Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2022. EPA, Washington, DC, April 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6
  2. 2Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  3. 3A. R. Crimmins, C. W. Avery, D. R. Easterling, K. E. Kunkel, B. C. Stewart and T. K. Maycock (eds.), Fifth National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, 2023. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  4. 4U.S. Census Bureau (ed.), Vintage 2024 national population estimates. Census Bureau, Washington, DC, December 2024. Cited in the summary
  5. 5U.S. Energy Information Administration (ed.), “Electricity in the United States” and Electric Power Monthly. EIA, Washington, DC, retrieved 2026-09-30. Cited in the summary, chapter 3, chapter 8
  6. 6A. Shehabi, S. J. Smith, A. Hubbard et al., 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, December 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  7. 7C. A. Dieter, M. A. Maupin, R. R. Caldwell et al., Estimated Use of Water in the United States in 2015, Circular 1441. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, 2018. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  8. 8U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (ed.), “Reclamation announces 2022 operating conditions for Lake Powell and Lake Mead.” News release, Washington, DC, August 2021. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  9. 9J. T. Howard, N. Androne, K. C. Alcover and A. R. Santos-Lozada, “Trends of heat-related deaths in the US, 1999–2023,” JAMA, vol. 332, no. 14, pp. 1203–1204, 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  10. 10NatureServe (ed.), Biodiversity in Focus: United States Edition. NatureServe, Arlington, VA, 2023. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  11. 11USDA Economic Research Service (ed.), Household Food Security in the United States in 2023. USDA ERS, Washington, DC, December 2024. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  12. 12U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), “2022 Final List of Critical Minerals.” Federal Register, vol. 87, 24 February 2022. Cited in the summary, chapter 6
  13. 13U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025. USGS, Reston, VA, 2025. Cited in chapter 6
  14. 14Federal Emergency Management Agency (ed.), National Risk Index: Technical Documentation. FEMA, Washington, DC, 2023. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  15. 15NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (ed.), U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters, 1980–2024. NOAA NCEI, Asheville, NC, January 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
  16. 16Texas Department of State Health Services (ed.), February 2021 Winter Storm-Related Deaths, Texas. DSHS, Austin, TX, 2021. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 8
  17. 17National Drought Mitigation Center (ed.), U.S. Drought Monitor. University of Nebraska–Lincoln, retrieved 2026-09-30. Cited in chapter 8
  18. 18Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (ed.), National Critical Functions: An Evolved Lens for Critical Infrastructure Security and Resilience. CISA, Washington, DC, 2019. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  19. 19The White House (ed.), National Security Memorandum on Critical Infrastructure Security and Resilience (NSM-22). Washington, DC, April 2024. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
  20. 20Federal Emergency Management Agency (ed.), 2024 National Preparedness Report. FEMA, Washington, DC, 2024. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  21. 21Federal Insurance Office (ed.), Analyses of U.S. Homeowners Insurance Markets, 2018–2022: Climate-Related Risks and Other Factors. U.S. Department of the Treasury, Washington, DC, January 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  22. 22USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (ed.), 2022 Census of Agriculture. USDA NASS, Washington, DC, 2024. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  23. 23H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Cited in chapter 6
  24. 24J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Cited in chapter 6
  25. 25S. V. Buldyrev, R. Parshani, G. Paul, H. E. Stanley and S. Havlin, “Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks,” Nature, vol. 464, pp. 1025–1028, 2010. Cited in chapter 6
  26. 26P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  27. 27International Energy Agency (ed.), Energy and AI. World Energy Outlook Special Report. IEA, Paris, 2025. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 7
  28. 28U.S. Congress (ed.), Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, Public Law 117-58. Washington, DC, 2021. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  29. 29U.S. Congress (ed.), Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, Public Law 117-169, as amended by Public Law 119-21 (2025). Washington, DC. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  30. 30UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement, and notification of withdrawal by the United States of America (effective January 2026). United Nations, New York. Cited in chapter 6
  31. 31Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and North American Electric Reliability Corporation (eds.), February 2021 Cold Weather Outages in Texas and the South Central United States. FERC and NERC, Washington, DC, 2021. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  32. 32North American Electric Reliability Corporation (ed.), 2025 Summer Reliability Assessment. NERC, Atlanta, GA, 2025. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  33. 33WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, WMO-No. 1391. WMO, Geneva, March 2026.
  34. 34U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Industry and Security (ed.), export controls on advanced computing and semiconductor manufacturing items. Federal Register, October 2022, as updated. Cited in chapter 6
  35. 35S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports, The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
  36. 36S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0.
  37. 37S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Canada Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0.
  38. 38S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Water Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
  39. 39S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Exponential Technology Report 2026, AI and Agentic Systems, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.
  40. 40Federal Emergency Management Agency (ed.), National Flood Insurance Program: program description and policy statistics. FEMA, Washington, DC, retrieved 2026-09-30. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
United States Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Edition 2026–2030
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe Q1 2027 edition reports changes against this baselineQ1 2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-COUNTRY-USA-2027-Q1-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
USANR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Series alias
NR-NAT-USA-2026-BL
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. USA edition Reports United States 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; USA is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In United States Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the United States’ Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report.

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