- Global Polycrisis 2026
- Annex B
Data appendix
The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Crises are entangled, not stacked
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Concurrent breadbasket shortfall and energy price shock
- 6Lenses and readings
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
B.1The indicator set
| Indicator | Value | Unit | Year | State | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global mean temperature above 1850–1900 | 1.43 | °C | 2025 | Reported | 1 |
| Record year temperature | 1.55 | °C | 2024 | Reported | 41 |
| Three-year average temperature | 1.48 | °C | 2023–2025 | Reported | 40 |
| CO₂ concentration | 423.9 | ppm | 2024 | Reported | 1 |
| Total GHG emissions | 57.1 | Gt CO₂e | 2023 | Reported | 3 |
| Energy-related CO₂ | 37.8 | Gt CO₂ | 2024 | Reported | 4 |
| Data-centre electricity use | ≈415 | TWh | 2024 | Reported | 5 |
| Natural-disaster losses | 224 | US$ billion | 2025 | Reported | 2 |
| Insured disaster losses | 108 | US$ billion | 2025 | Reported | 2 |
| Disaster deaths | 17,200 | deaths | 2025 | Reported | 2 |
| People facing hunger | 673 | million | 2024 | Reported | 7 |
| Without safely managed water | 2.2 | billion | 2022 | Reported | 8 |
| Air-pollution deaths | 6.7 | million a year | 2019–2020 | Reported | 14 |
| Wildlife population change | −73 | % | 1970–2020 | Reported | 9 |
| Protected land · ocean | 17.6 · 8.4 | % | 2024 | Reported | 10 |
| Population | 8.2 | billion | 2024 | Reported | 11 |
| Forcibly displaced | 123.2 | million | 2024 | Reported | 12 |
| Public debt | 102 | US$ trillion | 2024 | Reported | 13 |
| Covered by social protection | 52.4 | % | 2023 | Reported | 44 |
B.2Global source register
The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.
Domains bound by the register
- WAT
- ENE
- FOO
- HLT
- BIO
- CLI
- FIN
- TRD
- MIN
- AIC
| Source | Category | Coverage | Period | Cadence | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State of the Global Climate1 | UN technical body | global | 1850–2025 | annual | CLI |
| NatCatSERVICE2 | industry | global | 1980–2025 | annual | FIN |
| Emissions Gap Report3 | UN programme | global | 1990–2023 | annual | CLI · ENE |
| Global Energy Review4 | intergovernmental | global | 2024 | annual | ENE |
| SOFI 20257 | UN agencies | global | 2024 | annual | FOO |
| JMP8 | UN agencies | global | 2000–2022 | biennial | WAT · HLT |
| Living Planet Report9 | civil society | global | 1970–2020 | biennial | BIO |
| World Population Prospects11 | UN statistics | global | 1950–2100 | biennial | profile |
| Global Trends12 | UN agency | global | 2024 | annual | development |
| A World of Debt13 | UN agency | global | 2024 | annual | FIN |
| Air-quality data14 | UN agency | global | 2019–2020 | periodic | HLT |
| Critical Minerals Outlook36 | intergovernmental | global | 2024 | annual | MIN |
B.3Regional reading, ten regional clusters
Map plates follow with the regional Baseline Editions, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form, and ranks no region.
| Region | Principal hazards | Systems most exposed | Baseline evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| North America | wildfire, severe storms, hurricanes, heat | insurance, power, housing | 2025 losses2 |
| South America | drought, flood, fire | hydropower, agriculture, forests | regional assessments15 |
| Europe | heat, flood, drought, wildfire | health, energy, agriculture | 2025 losses2 |
| Eurasia | heat, drought, permafrost thaw | agriculture, infrastructure | assessments15 |
| Middle East and North Africa | extreme heat, water scarcity | water, food imports, health | water reports38 |
| Africa | drought, flood, heat | food, health, livelihoods | losses largely uninsured2 |
| South Asia | heat, monsoon floods, cyclones | health, labour, agriculture | heat–health26 |
| East Asia | typhoons, floods, heat | manufacturing, cities, power | 2025 losses2 |
| ASEAN | typhoons, floods, sea-level rise | coasts, agriculture, supply chains | assessments15 |
| Oceania-Pacific | cyclones, floods, sea-level rise | small islands, coasts, insurance | assessments15 |
B.4Regional card, South Asia
- region
- basin
- monsoon system
- corridor
- Systems in view
health,labour,water,food,energy- Defining hazards
- extreme heat before the monsoon; monsoon floods; cyclones on the Bay of Bengal
- Couplings
- CLI → HLT heat; WAT → FOO monsoon-fed agriculture; ENE → HLT cooling demand
- Capability evidence
- cyclone early warning credited with large falls in deaths over recent decades35
- Gaps
- heat mortality and labour-loss data; groundwater depletion
- Agenda items
- P-06 · P-07
Pre-monsoon heat is the region’s leading climate–health exposure, falling hardest on outdoor workers and people without cooling [26].
HEALTH
Heat and work
Agriculture depends on monsoon timing and groundwater; a late or weak monsoon couples water, food prices and rural incomes [38].
WATER AND FOOD
The monsoon as infrastructure
Cyclone warning and evacuation along the Bay of Bengal is among the clearest cases of early warning saving lives at scale [35].
EARLY WARNING
A demonstrated capability
B.5How countries appear in the global edition
Countries enter the global edition through their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never placed in a league table.
| Card field | What it shows | Source |
|---|---|---|
| WEFH+B state | each core system against peer distribution bands | national edition |
| Couplings | the national dependency matrix | national edition |
| Risk objects | the national risk portfolio | national edition |
| Capability rungs | the national capability ladder | national edition |
| Evidence age | oldest and newest source dates | national source register |
Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme
26national
countries and unions
10regional
clusters
16global
flagship and sector
20frontier
technology reports
How to read a country card
- Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist
- Couplings and risk objects come from the country’s own national edition
- Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions
- Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such
| Wave | Countries and unions | State |
|---|---|---|
| W0 | Canada | ISSUED |
| W1 | United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, European Union, Switzerland | PLANNED |
| W2 | Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Türkiye, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, South Africa, Senegal, Kenya, African Union, India, China, Republic of Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, Australia | PLANNED |
B.6Licences
| Material | Licence |
|---|---|
| Text | CC BY 4.0 |
| Data | on the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0 |
| Figures | Nexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited |
| Maps | boundary source and licence printed on each plate |
| Metadata | CC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it |
| Third-party data, figures and text | The source’s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed |
| Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence. | |
B.7Formats and provenance
| Format | Kind | State | What it is | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Web edition | HTML | On this site | Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source. | NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| Print edition | At release | A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release. | NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | |
| Indicator data | CSV · JSON | On this site | 19 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release. | NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE data release v1 |
| Figures | SVG · PNG | On this site | 4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder. | FIG-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-* |
| Slides | Not recorded | No slide deck is recorded for this edition. | ||
| Evidence brief | HTML · PDF | Not recorded | No evidence brief is recorded for this edition. | |
| Dataset with DOI | DataCite | At release | Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet. |
Provenance
- Edition pack
- The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built
- Evidence cut
- DC-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026
- Reproducibility
- sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
- Self-check
- 14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release
- Review
- five passes scheduled before release
- Publisher of record
- The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium
- Corrections
- Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references.
- 1WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, WMO-No. 1391. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, March 2026.back
- 41WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2024, WMO-No. 1368. WMO, Geneva, 2025.back
- 40WMO (ed.), “WMO confirms 2025 was one of warmest years on record.” Press release. WMO, Geneva, January 2026.back
- 3UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air … please! UNEP, Nairobi, 2024.back
- 4International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.back
- 5International Energy Agency (ed.), Energy and AI. World Energy Outlook Special Report. IEA, Paris, 2025.back
- 2Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.back
- 7FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025. FAO, Rome, 2025.back
- 8WHO and UNICEF (eds.), Progress on Household Drinking Water, Sanitation and Hygiene 2000–2022. Joint Monitoring Programme, New York and Geneva, 2023.back
- 14World Health Organization (ed.), “Ambient (outdoor) air pollution” and “Household air pollution” fact sheets. WHO, Geneva, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
- 9WWF (ed.), Living Planet Report 2024: A System in Peril. WWF, Gland, 2024.back
- 10UNEP-WCMC and IUCN (eds.), Protected Planet Report 2024. UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, Cambridge and Gland, 2024.back
- 11UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results. United Nations, New York, 2024.back
- 12UNHCR (ed.), Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2024. UNHCR, Copenhagen, June 2025.back
- 13UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2025: It Is Time for Reform. UNCTAD, Geneva, 2025.back
- 44International Labour Organization (ed.), World Social Protection Report 2024–26: Universal Social Protection for Climate Action and a Just Transition. ILO, Geneva, 2024.back
- 36International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.back
- 15H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023.back
- 38UNESCO World Water Assessment Programme (ed.), The United Nations World Water Development Report 2024: Water for Prosperity and Peace. UNESCO, Paris, 2024.back
- 26M. Romanello et al., “The 2024 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change,” The Lancet, vol. 404, pp. 1847–1896, 2024.back
- 35WMO and UNDRR (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2024. WMO and UNDRR, Geneva, 2024.back