Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk

The first annual edition of the polycrisis report. It fixes the 2026 reference state of entangled global risk, and the model, voice and positions, against which the 2027 edition and every strategic report will be read.

Read the executive summaryStart with chapter 1Cite this report
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi
Publisher of record
GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Status
Draft in stewardship review; not yet released
ReportsSR-01

Strategic Systems

Global Polycrisis 2026

Baseline Edition 2026NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium
Findings12each with its status and source
Sources48numbered, editor first
Chapters and annexes11plus the executive summary
Indicators19in the data appendix, with CSV and JSON

01 · Key messages

What the edition finds.

Five of the questions the edition answers, each with its status. The executive summary has all of them, with their sources.

  1. 1.43 °C above 1850–1900 in 2025, after a record 1.55 °C in 2024; 2023–2025 averaged 1.48 °C.

    How warm is the world?Reported

  2. Insured losses exceeded US$100 billion for the sixth year running; 2025 losses were driven by floods, storms and wildfires.

    Are disaster losses rising?Reported

  3. Half of 2025 losses were uninsured; in Asia almost nine-tenths were.

    Who carries the losses?Reported

  4. No: energy CO₂ set a record in 2024, although clean power supplied about 41% of electricity.

    Are emissions falling?Reported

  5. 673 million people faced hunger in 2024; concurrent breadbasket failure is a rising tail risk.

    Is the food system stable?Reported

All key messages and the headline finding

02 · Contents

Eight chapters and three annexes.

  1. ·

    Executive summary

    The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

  2. 1

    Chapter 1. Crises are entangled, not stacked

    Part I describes systems and their couplings.

  3. 2

    Chapter 2. Key findings

    Twelve findings carry the global baseline.

  4. 3

    Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline

  5. 4

    Chapter 4. Risks and capability

    Four global risk objects open the portfolio.

  6. 5

    Chapter 5. Concurrent breadbasket shortfall and energy price shock.

    A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

  7. 6

    Chapter 6. Lenses and readings

    The global baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole.

  8. 7

    Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda

    Eight bounded questions open the 2027 polycrisis agenda.

  9. 8

    Chapter 8. Systems in depth

    One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

  10. A

    Annex A. Methodology

    How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

  11. B

    Annex B. Data appendix

    The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.

  12. C

    Annex C. References and record

    Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

List of figures (4)
  1. S.1Natural-disaster losses in 2025 (US$ billion)
  2. 1.1Where did 2025’s natural-disaster losses fall? Overall losses by region (US$ billion)
  3. 1.2Couplings between the five systems
  4. 2.1Natural-disaster losses in 2025 (US$ billion)
List of tables (43)
  1. 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
  2. 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
  3. 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
  4. 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
  5. 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
  6. 6.1Standards and regulatory watch
  7. 6.22027 polycrisis readiness pack
  8. 6.3Assessments and peer-reviewed science
  9. 6.4Institutional flagships
  10. 6.5UN and multilateral statistics
  11. 6.6Industry, energy and nature data
  12. 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
  13. 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the polycrisis candidate mission
  14. 7.3Handoffs and routing
  15. 7.4Routing rules by publication class
  16. 7.5Feeds watched from 2027
  17. 7.6Signals at baseline
  18. 8.1Evidence at baseline
  19. 8.2Evidence at baseline
  20. 8.3Evidence at baseline
  21. 8.4Evidence at baseline
  22. 8.5Evidence at baseline
  23. A.1Methods
  24. A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
  25. A.3Status grammar
  26. A.4From the baseline cut to the federation cut
  27. A.5Evidence age and coverage
  28. A.6Coverage by system at baseline
  29. A.7Quality dimensions at baseline
  30. A.8Publication acceptance record
  31. A.9The status every value carries
  32. A.10Series terms
  33. A.11Abbreviations used in this edition
  34. A.12Technical annex
  35. B.1Global baseline indicator set
  36. B.2Global baseline indicator set
  37. B.3Global source register
  38. B.4Regional reading, ten regional clusters
  39. B.5How countries appear in the global edition
  40. B.6National Baseline Editions in the 2026 programme
  41. B.7Licences of each kind of material
  42. B.8This edition in every format
  43. C.1Release path for this version

03 · Nexus Standards reading

How Nexus Standards reads this edition.

8 instruments shape these systems on the retrieval date, among them Paris Agreement; Kunming-Montreal Framework; Sendai Framework 2015–2030.

IN FORCE · ADOPTED 2022 · ADOPTED 2015 · ADOPTED 2023 · ADOPTED 2024.

Chapter 6, lenses and readings

04 · Publication record

Version, dates and contributors.

The identity of this edition as its title pages record it. A review copy has no DOI; the DOI is issued at deposit.

Publication ID
NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Version
1.0.0, review copy
Edition date
Evidence close
Status
Draft under stewardship review; not yet released
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi
Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
Licence of the text
CC BY 4.0
DOI
Issued at deposit, on release
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0

Contributors

RoleContributionBy
ConceptualisationSeries architecture and the global system modelS. Valadbaygi (ed.)
MethodologyBaseline method, dependency scoring and status grammarReports editorial team, GCRI
Investigation · data curationSource review of global assessments, UN statistics and loss data to evidence closeReports editorial team, GCRI
Writing, original draftAll chapters; AI-assisted drafting, disclosed belowEditor · editorial team
Writing, review and editingFive review passes before releaseSteward reviewers (scheduled)
VisualisationPages, figures and tables in the Nexus design standardReports editorial team, GCRI
SupervisionEdition governance, registry record and depositS. Valadbaygi (ed.)

Review before release

PassScopeByState
1Scientific and technicalGCRI · key TScheduled
2Reproducibility of analytical valuesGCRI · key TScheduled
3Public meaning and claimsThe Global Risks Forum (GRF) · key MScheduled
4Finance-readiness boundaryThe Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · key FScheduled
5Regional context and safeguardsRegional consortia · key NScheduled

AI assistance was used for drafting, consistency checks and page composition. Every number, citation and status label was checked against its source by the editorial team before freeze. No AI system is recorded as an author or a reviewer, and no AI output is printed as fact without a source.

05 · Downloads

Read it in print, take the data.

FormatWhat it isStateGet it
Complete edition, print or PDFA4 or Letter, chosen in the print dialog: cover, contents, every chapter and annex, endnotes and running heads Review copyOpen for print
Indicators, CSV19 indicators with unit, year, status and source On this pageDownload
Indicators, JSONThe same indicators with the edition’s identity and licence On this pageDownload
Findings, CSV12 findings with status, evidence-quality level and references On this pageDownload
Citation, BibTeXFor LaTeX and reference managers On this pageDownload
Citation, RISFor Zotero, EndNote and Mendeley On this pageDownload
Signed PDF with DOIThe archival PDF/A with its DOI, signed with the web edition and the data bundle At releaseNot yet issued

The print and the files are produced from the same edition pack as the web pages, so they always agree. Until release they are review copies.

06 · Cite

Cite this report.

This edition is a draft in stewardship review. Cite it as a draft; the DOI and the UNI are issued at deposit, and the citation then names them.
Catalogue keyNR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Standards applied to NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Cite as

S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk. Reports, Baseline Edition 2026. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE. DOI at deposit.

Applied

NS-1 catalogue identity (a UNI is allocated at deposit and resolves to this record), NS-2 citation and attribution, NS-3b dataset metadata, NS-5 figures and maps, NS-12 software and AI disclosure.

Monitoring

Corrections are new versions with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable.

An attestation is evidence, not a certificate. Nexus Standards parts are preparatory working drafts (2026).

APA 7
Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/sr-01/
Chicago
Valadbaygi, Saeed, ed. Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk. Baseline Edition 2026. Nexus Reports NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE. Draft under review. Toronto: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), 2026. https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/sr-01/.
BibTeX
@techreport{NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE,
  editor      = {Valadbaygi, Saeed},
  title       = {{Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk}},
  institution = {The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)},
  address     = {Toronto},
  year        = {2026},
  type        = {Nexus Reports, Baseline Edition 2026},
  number      = {NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE},
  note        = {Draft under stewardship review; not yet released. DOI assigned at deposit},
  url         = {https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/sr-01/}
}
RIS
TY  - RPRT
ED  - Valadbaygi, Saeed
TI  - Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk
T3  - Nexus Reports
ET  - Baseline Edition 2026
PY  - 2026
PB  - The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
CY  - Toronto
SN  - NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE
UR  - https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/sr-01/
N1  - Draft under stewardship review; not yet released. DOI assigned at deposit.
LA  - en
ER  -
NR-CIT-1 (house style)
S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk. Nexus Reports, Baseline Edition 2026. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE. DOI at deposit.
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