Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

6 min read0 figures5 tables18 notesNR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE.

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Crises are entangled, not stacked
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Concurrent breadbasket shortfall and energy price shock
  8. 6Lenses and readings
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Common causes
    2. 8.2 Domino effects
    3. 8.3 Inter-systemic feedbacks
    4. 8.4 Shared vulnerabilities
    5. 8.5 Thresholds and tipping
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Common causes

A common cause stresses several systems at once. Warming is the clearest: one forcing that loads water, food, health and nature in the same years124.

1.43°C

warming in 20251

6 of 9boundaries

transgressed20

US$102trillion

public debt, 202413

Table 8.1Evidence at baseline
InstanceMechanism in actionEvidenceStatus
Warming1.43 °C in 2025 after a record 1.55 °C; stress on all five core systems141Reported
Energy pricesone price shock passes into food, fertiliser and household budgets4Inferred
Land-use changedrives biodiversity loss, emissions and zoonotic risk together1617Reported
Interest ratesa rise tightens every indebted budget at once13Inferred

Pathways in this mechanism

  • Warming loads water, food, health and nature together
  • One energy shock reaches food, fertiliser and budgets
  • Interest-rate rises tighten every indebted budget

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • Attribution of joint stress to each common cause
  • Timing of common shocks across regions

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-03 Food
  • GS-05 Finance
  • SR-05 Fiscal resilience
  • SR-09 Planetary boundaries

8.2Domino effects

A domino effect carries a shock from one system to the next. Food and finance are the main channels at baseline.

673million

facing hunger, 20247

123.2million

forcibly displaced, 202412

116US$ bn

uninsured disaster losses, 20252

Table 8.2Evidence at baseline
InstanceMechanism in actionEvidenceStatus
Drought → food → pricesbreadbasket shortfalls transmitted through trade23Reported
Disaster → budgetsuninsured losses become public and household debt213Inferred
Prices → hungerfood-price rises cut diets in import-dependent households7Reported
Conflict → displacement123.2 million forcibly displaced at the end of 202412Reported

Pathways in this mechanism

  • Breadbasket shortfall → prices → hunger
  • Disaster → uninsured losses → public debt
  • Conflict → displacement → host-country strain

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • Speed of price transmission to households
  • Fiscal cost of disasters by country group

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-03 Food
  • GS-05 Finance
  • SR-05 Fiscal resilience
  • SR-09 Planetary boundaries

8.3Inter-systemic feedbacks

Feedbacks make crises reinforce each other: debt slows recovery, slow recovery deepens vulnerability, and vulnerability raises the cost of the next shock.

3.4billion

where interest exceeds health or education13

US$187–359bn a year

adaptation finance gap42

+167%

heat deaths of over-65s vs 1990s26

Table 8.3Evidence at baseline
InstanceMechanism in actionEvidenceStatus
Debt–disaster loopinterest costs crowd out adaptation, raising future losses1342Inferred
Hunger–conflict loopfood insecurity and conflict reinforce each other712Inferred
Nature–climate loopecosystem loss weakens carbon and water regulation1620Reported
Heat–health–labour loopheat cuts work capacity and income26Reported

Pathways in this mechanism

  • Debt slows recovery; slow recovery raises the next loss
  • Hunger and conflict reinforce each other
  • Nature loss weakens climate and water regulation

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • Recovery times after major disasters
  • Strength of the debt–disaster loop by region

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-03 Food
  • GS-05 Finance
  • SR-05 Fiscal resilience
  • SR-09 Planetary boundaries

8.4Shared vulnerabilities

Entanglement is worst where buffers are thinnest. Fiscal space, insurance cover and social protection decide whether a shock stays contained.

48%

of 2025 disaster losses insured2

52.4%

covered by social protection44

108countries

with multi-hazard early warning35

Table 8.4Evidence at baseline
InstanceMechanism in actionEvidenceStatus
Fiscal space3.4 billion people where interest exceeds health or education spending13Reported
Insuranceabout half of 2025 losses uninsured; about 12% insured in Asia2Reported
Social protection52.4% of people covered by at least one benefit44Reported
Early warning108 countries with multi-hazard systems in 202435Reported

Pathways in this mechanism

  • Thin buffers turn shocks into crises
  • Where insurance, protection and warning are all thin, losses compound
  • Buffers bought before the shock cost least

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • Overlap of hazard, debt and thin cover
  • Tested performance of buffers in real events

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-03 Food
  • GS-05 Finance
  • SR-05 Fiscal resilience
  • SR-09 Planetary boundaries

8.5Thresholds and tipping

Some couplings change character past a threshold. Planetary boundaries and tipping systems mark where gradual stress can become abrupt change.

6 of 9boundaries

transgressed, 202320

5systems

tipping at risk at current warming21

record2025

Earth energy imbalance1

Table 8.5Evidence at baseline
InstanceMechanism in actionEvidenceStatus
Planetary boundariessix of nine assessed as transgressed in 202320Reported
Tipping systemsfive major systems at risk at current warming21Reported
Safe and just limitsboundaries defined for people as well as the planet47Reported
Energy imbalancerecord high in 2025; the system is still gaining heat1Reported

Pathways in this mechanism

  • Gradual stress can become abrupt change
  • Some tipping systems interact and may cascade
  • Thresholds shrink the time available to respond

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • Early-warning indicators for each tipping system
  • Interactions between tipping systems

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-03 Food
  • GS-05 Finance
  • SR-05 Fiscal resilience
  • SR-09 Planetary boundaries

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references.

  1. 1WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, WMO-No. 1391. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, March 2026.back
  2. 20K. Richardson, W. Steffen, W. Lucht et al., “Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries,” Science Advances, vol. 9, eadh2458, 2023.back
  3. 13UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2025: It Is Time for Reform. UNCTAD, Geneva, 2025.back
  4. 41WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2024, WMO-No. 1368. WMO, Geneva, 2025.back
  5. 4International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.back
  6. 16P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054back
  7. 17K. O’Brien, L. Garibaldi and A. Agrawal (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Underlying Causes of Biodiversity Loss and the Determinants of Transformative Change. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024.back
  8. 24M. Lawrence, T. Homer-Dixon, S. Janzwood, J. Rockström, O. Renn and J. F. Donges, “Global polycrisis: the causal mechanisms of crisis entanglement,” Global Sustainability, vol. 7, e6, 2024.back
  9. 7FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025. FAO, Rome, 2025.back
  10. 12UNHCR (ed.), Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2024. UNHCR, Copenhagen, June 2025.back
  11. 2Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.back
  12. 23F. Gaupp, J. Hall, S. Hochrainer-Stigler and S. Dadson, “Changing risks of simultaneous global breadbasket failure,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 10, pp. 54–57, 2020.back
  13. 42UNEP (ed.), Adaptation Gap Report 2024: Come Hell and High Water. UNEP, Nairobi, 2024.back
  14. 26M. Romanello et al., “The 2024 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change,” The Lancet, vol. 404, pp. 1847–1896, 2024.back
  15. 44International Labour Organization (ed.), World Social Protection Report 2024–26: Universal Social Protection for Climate Action and a Just Transition. ILO, Geneva, 2024.back
  16. 35WMO and UNDRR (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2024. WMO and UNDRR, Geneva, 2024.back
  17. 21T. M. Lenton, D. I. Armstrong McKay, S. Loriani et al. (eds.), The Global Tipping Points Report 2023. University of Exeter, Exeter, 2023.back
  18. 47J. Rockström, J. Gupta, D. Qin et al., “Safe and just Earth system boundaries,” Nature, vol. 619, pp. 102–111, 2023.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report.

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