Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

7 min read0 figures5 tables21 notesNR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE.

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Canada’s risk is coupled, not cumulative
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Western heat, drought and fire year
  8. 6Lenses and readings
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Water, the baseline system chapter
    2. 8.2 Energy, the baseline system chapter
    3. 8.3 Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter
    4. 8.4 Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter
    5. 8.5 Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

Canada’s water system is defined by abundance in total and scarcity where people, farms and power plants are. The binding stresses at baseline are drought in the West, flood in cities and corridors, and service gaps in remote communities.

≈20%

of the world’s fresh surface water, mostly flowing north8.

≈7%

of the world’s renewable freshwater8

≈60%

of electricity generated from hydro9

Table 8.1State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Supply and storagelarge but seasonal; snowpack and glaciers drive western summer flows85Reported
Droughtrecurrent on the Prairies and in southern British Columbia; 2021 is the reference year20Reported
Floodurban pluvial and riverine flooding is a leading driver of insured and uninsured losses422Inferred
Service accesslong-term drinking-water advisories persist on some First Nations systems28Reported
Energy linkhydro dominance makes low water an electricity event9Inferred

Couplings into other systems

  • WAT → ENE hydro output in dry years
  • WAT → FOO irrigation and rain-fed yields
  • WAT → HLT drinking water and sanitation
  • BIO → WAT wetland and forest regulation

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • basin-scale water stress under multi-year drought
  • groundwater levels and recharge
  • municipal supply resilience in dry years

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

A low-emitting electricity system sits beside an emissions-intensive oil and gas sector. Hydro dominance makes water the key energy risk, while heat and cold set peak demand.

≈83%

electricity from non-emitting sources9

208Mt CO₂e

oil and gas emissions, 20241

50Mt CO₂e

electricity emissions, 20241

Table 8.2State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Generation mixabout 60% hydro, with nuclear concentrated in Ontario9Reported
Emissionsoil and gas the largest emitting sector; methane at a record low1Reported
Reliabilitypeak demand in heat and cold; interties and trade balance provinces15Inferred
Dry-year exposurelower hydro output raises imports and cuts exports9Inferred
Transitionelectrification raises demand; long-run projections in Canada’s Energy Future15Reported

Couplings into other systems

  • WAT → ENE hydro supply
  • ENE → FOO fuel, fertiliser and cold chain
  • ENE → HLT power and cooling for care
  • AIC → ENE new data-centre load

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • monthly hydro storage and import dependence
  • peak-demand margins under compound heat
  • data-centre load growth by province

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

Canada is a major exporter of grains, oilseeds and potash, and its yields swing with Prairie weather. Food security at home depends on access and affordability as much as on production.

≈⅓share

of world potash output30

−35%

canola output, 2021 against 202020

70Mt CO₂e

agriculture emissions, 20241

Table 8.3State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Productiongrains, oilseeds and pulses on the Prairies; diverse production in the East20Reported
Drought sensitivity2021 heat and drought cut canola by about a third, and wheat by more20Reported
Inputsfertiliser, fuel and potash; Canada is a leading potash producer30Reported
Logisticsexport grain moves by rail to west-coast and Great Lakes ports23Inferred
Accesshousehold food access and affordability not yet bound at baseline,Expert input

Couplings into other systems

  • WAT → FOO rain-fed and irrigated yields
  • ENE → FOO inputs and cold chain
  • FOO → TRD export volumes
  • BIO → FOO pollination and soils

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • post-2021 drought impacts by region
  • household food access and affordability
  • rail and port continuity in harvest season

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

Health is an active system, not only an outcome. Heat, smoke and zoonotic spillover now load it each season; spending is high, and surge depth is not documented.

12.4% GDP

health spending, 202421

619deaths

2021 heat dome, British Columbia6

2024H5N1

first domestically acquired human case27

Table 8.4State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Spendingtotal health spending at 12.4% of GDP in 202421Reported
Heatthe 2021 heat dome is the deadliest weather event in Canadian history6Reported
Smokefire seasons bring weeks of smoke to distant cities1840Reported
One HealthH5N1 in poultry and wild birds; a domestic human case in 202427Reported
Surge capacitynot documented nationally at public-safe resolution,Expert input

Couplings into other systems

  • CLI → HLT heat mortality and morbidity
  • BIO → HLT smoke and zoonoses
  • ENE → HLT power and cooling in care settings
  • FOO → HLT nutrition and food safety

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • emergency surge under concurrent heat and smoke
  • cooling in long-term care and housing
  • One Health surveillance integration

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

Canada holds vast forest, freshwater and marine ecosystems. Conservation stands at about half of the 2030 target, and fire is now the fastest-changing pressure.

13.7%

of land conserved, 20237

14.7%

of marine areas conserved, 20237

≈9%

of the world’s forests31

Table 8.5State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Extentabout 9% of the world’s forests; extensive wetlands and peatlands31Reported
Conservation13.7% of land and 14.7% of marine areas, against 30% by 2030713Reported
Firerecord 2023 season; seasons starting earlier and lasting longer1040Reported
Conditionecosystem condition outside protected areas not yet bound,Expert input
Serviceswater regulation, pollination and carbon storage44Inferred

Couplings into other systems

  • BIO → WAT regulation and filtration
  • BIO → FOO pollination and soils
  • BIO → HLT smoke and zoonoses
  • CLI → BIO fire and heat

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • ecosystem condition indicators
  • peatland carbon under fire
  • species-at-risk trends by region

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references.

  1. 8Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), “Water sources: water availability in Canada.” ECCC, Gatineau, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
  2. 9Natural Resources Canada (ed.), Energy Fact Book 2024–2025. NRCan, Ottawa, 2024.back
  3. 5E. Bush and D. S. Lemmen (eds.), Canada’s Changing Climate Report. Government of Canada, Ottawa, 2019.back
  4. 20Statistics Canada (ed.), “Production of principal field crops, November 2021.” The Daily, Ottawa, December 2021.back
  5. 4Insurance Bureau of Canada (ed.), “Severe weather-related insured losses in Canada exceed $2.4 billion in 2025.” IBC, Toronto, January 2026.back
  6. 22Public Safety Canada (ed.), Adapting to Rising Flood Risk: An Analysis of Insurance Solutions for Canada. Report of the Task Force on Flood Insurance and Relocation. Ottawa, 2022.back
  7. 28Indigenous Services Canada (ed.), “Ending long-term drinking water advisories.” ISC, Ottawa, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
  8. 1Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), National Inventory Report 1990–2024: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada. Canada’s submission to the UNFCCC, 2026 edition. ECCC, Gatineau, April 2026.back
  9. 15Canada Energy Regulator (ed.), Canada’s Energy Future 2023: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2050. CER, Calgary, 2023.back
  10. 30U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025. USGS, Reston, VA, 2025.back
  11. 23Transport Canada (ed.), Action. Collaboration. Transformation. Final report of the National Supply Chain Task Force. Ottawa, 2022.back
  12. 21Canadian Institute for Health Information (ed.), National Health Expenditure Trends, 2024. CIHI, Ottawa, 2024.back
  13. 6BC Coroners Service (ed.), Extreme Heat and Human Mortality: A Review of Heat-Related Deaths in B.C. in Summer 2021. Government of British Columbia, Victoria, 2022.back
  14. 27Public Health Agency of Canada (ed.), “Avian influenza A(H5N1): current situation summary.” PHAC, Ottawa, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
  15. 18P. Berry and R. Schnitter (eds.), Health of Canadians in a Changing Climate: Advancing our Knowledge for Action. Government of Canada, Ottawa, 2022.back
  16. 40P. Jain, Q. E. Barber, S. W. Taylor et al., “Drivers and impacts of the record-breaking 2023 wildfire season in Canada,” Nature Communications, vol. 15, art. 6764, 2024.back
  17. 7Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators: Canada’s conserved areas. ECCC, Gatineau, 2024.back
  18. 31Natural Resources Canada (ed.), The State of Canada’s Forests: Annual Report 2024. Canadian Forest Service, Ottawa, 2024.back
  19. 13Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022.back
  20. 10Natural Resources Canada (ed.), Canada’s record-breaking 2023 wildfire season. Canadian Forest Service, Ottawa, 2024.back
  21. 44P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In Canada Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Canada’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report.

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