Canada Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

The eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

1. 685 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 10.3% below 2005, and 227–265 Mt above the 2030 target range.¹.

   Where do emissions stand?Reported

2. Insured severe-weather losses rose from C$14 billion (2006–2015) to C$37 billion (2016–2025); 2024 set the record at C$9.1 billion.²⁴.

   Are disaster losses rising?Reported

3. Insurance has covered about 54% of societal catastrophe losses over 43 years; households, businesses and governments carry the rest.³.

   Who bears the losses?Reported

4. Heat, drought and fire together, through hydro supply, heat and smoke health loads, crop yields and rail operations.⁶¹⁰²⁰.

   Which hazard couples the most systems?Inferred.

5. About 60% of generation is hydro, so a multi-year drought is an energy-security risk, not only a water one.⁹.

   How dependent is electricity on water?Inferred

6. 13.7% of land and 14.7% of marine territory conserved in 2023, against 30% by 2030.⁷¹³.

   Where is the nature gap?Reported

7. Trade with the United States, which takes about three-quarters of goods exports; the 2026 CUSMA joint review sets the 2027 path.¹²³⁵.

   What is the main economic shock channel?Inferred.

8. The Western Canada compound pathway: heat and drought through hydro, smoke and rail into health and food logistics. SCN-CAN-HDF-01.

   What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input.

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-FIN-003

Insurance has covered about 54% of societal catastrophe losses in Canada over 43 years; in 2025, C$1.0 billion of C$3.4 billion in societal losses was uninsured.

Where cover is thin, overland flood in high-risk areas, wildfire at the urban edge, and much public infrastructure, losses move onto household balance sheets and into public budgets through disaster assistance. A rising loss trend with a steady uninsured share means a rising absolute burden on both³²².

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

S.6What this edition is, and is not

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references.

1. 1Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), National Inventory Report 1990–2024: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada. Canada’s submission to the UNFCCC, 2026 edition. ECCC, Gatineau, April 2026.back
2. 2CatIQ (ed.), Canadian insured losses from catastrophic events: 2025 annual summary. Catastrophe Indices and Quantification Inc., Toronto, January 2026.back
3. 4Insurance Bureau of Canada (ed.), “Severe weather-related insured losses in Canada exceed $2.4 billion in 2025.” IBC, Toronto, January 2026.back
4. 3Institute for Catastrophe Loss Reduction (ed.), Societal losses from catastrophic events in Canada: 2025 estimates. ICLR, Toronto, 2026.back
5. 6BC Coroners Service (ed.), Extreme Heat and Human Mortality: A Review of Heat-Related Deaths in B.C. in Summer 2021. Government of British Columbia, Victoria, 2022.back
6. 10Natural Resources Canada (ed.), Canada’s record-breaking 2023 wildfire season. Canadian Forest Service, Ottawa, 2024.back
7. 20Statistics Canada (ed.), “Production of principal field crops, November 2021.” The Daily, Ottawa, December 2021.back
8. 9Natural Resources Canada (ed.), Energy Fact Book 2024–2025. NRCan, Ottawa, 2024.back
9. 7Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators: Canada’s conserved areas. ECCC, Gatineau, 2024.back
10. 13Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022.back
11. 12Statistics Canada (ed.), “Canadian international merchandise trade: annual review 2024.” The Daily, Ottawa, 2025.back
12. 35Global Affairs Canada (ed.), “Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement (CUSMA): joint review.” GAC, Ottawa, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
13. 22Public Safety Canada (ed.), Adapting to Rising Flood Risk: An Analysis of Insurance Solutions for Canada. Report of the Task Force on Flood Insurance and Relocation. Ottawa, 2022.back
14. 11Statistics Canada (ed.), “Canada’s population estimates, first quarter 2025.” The Daily, Ottawa, March 2025.back
15. 32Statistics Canada (ed.), Census of Population, 2021. Statistics Canada, Ottawa, 2022.back
16. 31Natural Resources Canada (ed.), The State of Canada’s Forests: Annual Report 2024. Canadian Forest Service, Ottawa, 2024.back
17. 30U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025. USGS, Reston, VA, 2025.back
18. 21Canadian Institute for Health Information (ed.), National Health Expenditure Trends, 2024. CIHI, Ottawa, 2024.back

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

• Where is Canada’s risk concentrated, and in which systems?
• Which couplings carry shocks from one system to the next?
• Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
• What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

• Narrative
• Headline finding
• Lead figure
• Twelve-domain reading
• Sector screens
• Dependency matrix
• Risk objects
• Capability ladder
• Scenario
• Three lenses
• Portfolio

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The Canada matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Transmission paths

1. 01

   WAT → ENE → HLT

   A dry year cuts hydro; heat raises peak demand; care settings need power and cooling.

   Inferred 2021 heat dome

2. 02

   CLI → BIO → HLT

   A fire season sends smoke over distant cities for weeks.

   Reported 2023 fire season

3. 03

   WAT → FOO → TRD

   Drought cuts yields and export volumes.

   Reported 2021 Prairie drought

4. 04

   CLI → INF → FOO

   Flood or fire cuts rail links to ports.

   Inferred 2021 BC floods

5. 05

   ENE → FOO

   Fuel and fertiliser costs pass into food prices.

   Inferred 2022 price shock

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references.

1. 4Insurance Bureau of Canada (ed.), “Severe weather-related insured losses in Canada exceed $2.4 billion in 2025.” IBC, Toronto, January 2026.back
2. 29Insurance Bureau of Canada (ed.), “Insured losses from Calgary hailstorm reach $3.25 billion.” IBC, Toronto, February 2025.back
3. 2CatIQ (ed.), Canadian insured losses from catastrophic events: 2025 annual summary. Catastrophe Indices and Quantification Inc., Toronto, January 2026.back
4. 3Institute for Catastrophe Loss Reduction (ed.), Societal losses from catastrophic events in Canada: 2025 estimates. ICLR, Toronto, 2026.back
5. 22Public Safety Canada (ed.), Adapting to Rising Flood Risk: An Analysis of Insurance Solutions for Canada. Report of the Task Force on Flood Insurance and Relocation. Ottawa, 2022.back
6. 5E. Bush and D. S. Lemmen (eds.), Canada’s Changing Climate Report. Government of Canada, Ottawa, 2019.back
7. 6BC Coroners Service (ed.), Extreme Heat and Human Mortality: A Review of Heat-Related Deaths in B.C. in Summer 2021. Government of British Columbia, Victoria, 2022.back
8. 10Natural Resources Canada (ed.), Canada’s record-breaking 2023 wildfire season. Canadian Forest Service, Ottawa, 2024.back
9. 9Natural Resources Canada (ed.), Energy Fact Book 2024–2025. NRCan, Ottawa, 2024.back
10. 20Statistics Canada (ed.), “Production of principal field crops, November 2021.” The Daily, Ottawa, December 2021.back
11. 18P. Berry and R. Schnitter (eds.), Health of Canadians in a Changing Climate: Advancing our Knowledge for Action. Government of Canada, Ottawa, 2022.back
12. 23Transport Canada (ed.), Action. Collaboration. Transformation. Final report of the National Supply Chain Task Force. Ottawa, 2022.back
13. 1Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), National Inventory Report 1990–2024: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada. Canada’s submission to the UNFCCC, 2026 edition. ECCC, Gatineau, April 2026.back
14. 38Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators: Greenhouse gas emissions. ECCC, Gatineau, 2026.back

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-FIN-003

Insurance has covered about 54% of societal catastrophe losses in Canada over 43 years; in 2025, C$1.0 billion of C$3.4 billion in societal losses was uninsured.

Implication

Where cover is thin, overland flood in high-risk areas, wildfire at the urban edge, and much public infrastructure, losses move onto household balance sheets and into public budgets through disaster assistance. A rising loss trend with a steady uninsured share means a rising absolute burden on both³²².

What would move it

Provincial loss splits (agenda item A-03), the design of a national flood insurance arrangement, and the 2026 and 2027 loss years would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

   National GHG emissions were 685 Mt CO₂e in 2024: 10.3% below 2005 and 0.3% below 2023.¹.

2. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-007

   Canada has warmed at about twice the global rate (1.7 °C, 1948–2016), and northern Canada faster still.⁵.

3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-010

   The 2023 wildfire season burned more than 15 million hectares, the largest on record, and 2025 led the record for fire catastrophes declared.¹⁰².

2.3Finance

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-FIN-002

   Insured catastrophe losses reached a record C$9.1 billion in 2024, then C$2.4 billion in 2025, with 17 catastrophes declared.².

2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-FIN-003

   Insurance has covered about 54% of societal catastrophe losses over 43 years; the long-run loss trend is rising by about 9% a year after inflation.³.

2.4Energy

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004

   Oil and gas remained the largest emitting sector (208 Mt, 30%, up 1.8%), while methane fell to its lowest level on record (105 Mt CO₂e).¹.

2. InferredEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-ENE-005

   Electricity emitted 50 Mt CO₂e (7.2%). Hydro’s dominance makes multi-year drought a direct risk to supply and to exports.¹⁹.

2.5Water

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-WAT-006

   Canada holds about 7% of the world’s renewable freshwater; most of it drains north, away from population and agriculture.⁸.

2.6Health

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-HLT-008

   The 2021 heat dome caused 619 heat-related deaths in British Columbia, establishing heat as a first-order health–power coupling.⁶.

2.7Biodiversity

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-BIO-009

   Protected and conserved areas covered 13.7% of land and 14.7% of marine territory in 2023, against a 30% target for 2030.⁷¹³.

2.8Trade

1. InferredEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-TRD-011

   About three-quarters of goods exports go to the United States, so trade policy is the main channel for economic shocks in 2026–2027.¹².

2.9Systemic

1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

   The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing runs from heat and drought through hydro shortfall, wildfire smoke and rail disruption into health and food logistics in Western Canada. §9.3.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references.

1. 2CatIQ (ed.), Canadian insured losses from catastrophic events: 2025 annual summary. Catastrophe Indices and Quantification Inc., Toronto, January 2026.back
2. 3Institute for Catastrophe Loss Reduction (ed.), Societal losses from catastrophic events in Canada: 2025 estimates. ICLR, Toronto, 2026.back
3. 22Public Safety Canada (ed.), Adapting to Rising Flood Risk: An Analysis of Insurance Solutions for Canada. Report of the Task Force on Flood Insurance and Relocation. Ottawa, 2022.back
4. 1Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), National Inventory Report 1990–2024: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada. Canada’s submission to the UNFCCC, 2026 edition. ECCC, Gatineau, April 2026.back
5. 5E. Bush and D. S. Lemmen (eds.), Canada’s Changing Climate Report. Government of Canada, Ottawa, 2019.back
6. 10Natural Resources Canada (ed.), Canada’s record-breaking 2023 wildfire season. Canadian Forest Service, Ottawa, 2024.back
7. 9Natural Resources Canada (ed.), Energy Fact Book 2024–2025. NRCan, Ottawa, 2024.back
8. 8Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), “Water sources: water availability in Canada.” ECCC, Gatineau, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
9. 6BC Coroners Service (ed.), Extreme Heat and Human Mortality: A Review of Heat-Related Deaths in B.C. in Summer 2021. Government of British Columbia, Victoria, 2022.back
10. 7Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators: Canada’s conserved areas. ECCC, Gatineau, 2024.back
11. 13Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022.back
12. 12Statistics Canada (ed.), “Canadian international merchandise trade: annual review 2024.” The Daily, Ottawa, 2025.back

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The reading states where the baseline evidence points; the coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references.

1. 8Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), “Water sources: water availability in Canada.” ECCC, Gatineau, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
2. 1Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), National Inventory Report 1990–2024: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada. Canada’s submission to the UNFCCC, 2026 edition. ECCC, Gatineau, April 2026.back
3. 6BC Coroners Service (ed.), Extreme Heat and Human Mortality: A Review of Heat-Related Deaths in B.C. in Summer 2021. Government of British Columbia, Victoria, 2022.back
4. 7Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators: Canada’s conserved areas. ECCC, Gatineau, 2024.back
5. 2CatIQ (ed.), Canadian insured losses from catastrophic events: 2025 annual summary. Catastrophe Indices and Quantification Inc., Toronto, January 2026.back
6. 3Institute for Catastrophe Loss Reduction (ed.), Societal losses from catastrophic events in Canada: 2025 estimates. ICLR, Toronto, 2026.back
7. 28Indigenous Services Canada (ed.), “Ending long-term drinking water advisories.” ISC, Ottawa, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
8. 9Natural Resources Canada (ed.), Energy Fact Book 2024–2025. NRCan, Ottawa, 2024.back
9. 30U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025. USGS, Reston, VA, 2025.back
10. 21Canadian Institute for Health Information (ed.), National Health Expenditure Trends, 2024. CIHI, Ottawa, 2024.back
11. 27Public Health Agency of Canada (ed.), “Avian influenza A(H5N1): current situation summary.” PHAC, Ottawa, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
12. 5E. Bush and D. S. Lemmen (eds.), Canada’s Changing Climate Report. Government of Canada, Ottawa, 2019.back
13. 23Transport Canada (ed.), Action. Collaboration. Transformation. Final report of the National Supply Chain Task Force. Ottawa, 2022.back
14. 32Statistics Canada (ed.), Census of Population, 2021. Statistics Canada, Ottawa, 2022.back
15. 17Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), Canada’s National Adaptation Strategy: Building Resilient Communities and a Strong Economy. ECCC, Gatineau, 2023.back

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

1. ReportedEQL 3RSK-CAN-CLI-001

   Compound wildfire, smoke and heat season

   Driver

   longer fire seasons; heat; drought

   Exposure

   communities at the wildland–urban edge; city populations under smoke

   Vulnerability

   older adults, outdoor workers, people with chronic illness; single-access towns

   Capacity

   interagency fire mutual aid; public alerting; clean-air spaces

   Cascade

   CLI → BIO → HLT → ENE cooling load

   Horizon

   seasonal · 1 and 5 years

2. InferredEQL 3RSK-CAN-WAT-002

   Multi-year drought in western Canada

   Driver

   low snowpack; heat; low summer flows

   Exposure

   Prairie agriculture; western hydro; municipal supply

   Vulnerability

   rain-fed farms; reservoir-limited systems

   Capacity

   drought monitoring; crop insurance; interties and imports

   Cascade

   WAT → ENE → FOO → TRD

   Horizon

   1–3 years

3. ReportedEQL 4RSK-CAN-CLI-003

   Pluvial and riverine flooding in cities and corridors

   Driver

   extreme rainfall; atmospheric rivers; snowmelt

   Exposure

   basements and networks in large cities; rail and road links

   Vulnerability

   older drainage; high-risk households with thin cover²²

   Capacity

   flood mapping; disaster assistance; insurance

   Cascade

   CLI → INF → FOO, FIN

   Horizon

   annual

4. InferredEQL 3RSK-CAN-TRD-004

   Trade-terms shock to integrated supply chains

   Driver

   tariffs; the 2026 CUSMA joint review³⁵

   Exposure

   autos, steel and aluminium, energy, agri-food

   Vulnerability

   concentration of export markets¹²

   Capacity

   trade diversification; fiscal measures

   Cascade

   TRD → FIN → households

   Horizon

   1–5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline, from a policy listing to performance in real events.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references.

1. 22Public Safety Canada (ed.), Adapting to Rising Flood Risk: An Analysis of Insurance Solutions for Canada. Report of the Task Force on Flood Insurance and Relocation. Ottawa, 2022.back
2. 35Global Affairs Canada (ed.), “Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement (CUSMA): joint review.” GAC, Ottawa, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
3. 12Statistics Canada (ed.), “Canadian international merchandise trade: annual review 2024.” The Daily, Ottawa, 2025.back
4. 36Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission (ed.), Telecom Regulatory Policy CRTC 2017-91: Implementation of the National Public Alerting System by wireless service providers. CRTC, Ottawa, 2017.back
5. 16Public Safety Canada (ed.), National Risk Profile: A national emergency preparedness and awareness tool, first public report. Government of Canada, Ottawa, 2023.back
6. 33Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (ed.), National wildland fire situation reports, 2023–2025. CIFFC, Winnipeg, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
7. 17Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), Canada’s National Adaptation Strategy: Building Resilient Communities and a Strong Economy. ECCC, Gatineau, 2023.back
8. 34Federation of Canadian Municipalities et al. (eds.), Canadian Infrastructure Report Card 2019: Monitoring the State of Canada’s Core Public Infrastructure. Ottawa, 2019.back

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-CAN-HDF-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline

the 2026 reference state in this edition

Drivers

a second consecutive low-snowpack winter in British Columbia and Alberta; a heat dome of 2021 magnitude in late June; an early and intense fire season

Analogues

2021 heat dome and Prairie drought; 2023 fire season

Interventions

none modelled, the specification describes the unmitigated case

Run state

narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1. 1

   CLI → WAT

   low snowpack and heat cut summer flows and reservoir inflow.

   2023 low water

2. 2

   WAT → ENE

   lower hydro output; imports at peak prices

   2023–2024

3. 3

   CLI → HLT

   heat deaths and emergency visits; cooling in care settings.

   2021 heat dome⁶

4. 4

   BIO → HLT

   smoke over Prairie and BC cities for weeks.

   2023 season¹⁰

5. 5

   WAT → FOO

   canola and wheat yields fall by a third or more.

   2021 drought²⁰

6. 6

   CLI → INF

   fire and heat slow rail operations; export delays.

   2021 · 2023

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-CAN-HDF-01 would travel through Canada’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Canada 2026, scenario SCN-CAN-HDF-01 (2026); Canada 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references.

1. 6BC Coroners Service (ed.), Extreme Heat and Human Mortality: A Review of Heat-Related Deaths in B.C. in Summer 2021. Government of British Columbia, Victoria, 2022.back
2. 10Natural Resources Canada (ed.), Canada’s record-breaking 2023 wildfire season. Canadian Forest Service, Ottawa, 2024.back
3. 20Statistics Canada (ed.), “Production of principal field crops, November 2021.” The Daily, Ottawa, December 2021.back

6.1Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

6.2Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

• IN FORCE
• ADOPTED
• SUBMITTED
• UNDER REVIEW
• PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

6.3GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology.

6.4Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

6.5Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack

The registers that open the first operational quarter. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Publication dispositions

• Publish
• Hold
• Needs evidence
• Restricted
• Superseded

6.6Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, national and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.

Review protocol

Question

What does the published evidence establish about Canada’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks?

Sources searched

peer-reviewed literature; national and international assessments; federal and provincial releases; industry loss data

Window

releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026

Selection

sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition

Next step

systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references.

1. 25Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (ed.), Guideline B-15: Climate Risk Management. OSFI, Ottawa, 2023.back
2. 24Bank of Canada and Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (eds.), Using Scenario Analysis to Assess Climate Transition Risk: Final Report of the BoC–OSFI Climate Scenario Analysis Pilot. Ottawa, 2022.back
3. 1Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), National Inventory Report 1990–2024: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada. Canada’s submission to the UNFCCC, 2026 edition. ECCC, Gatineau, April 2026.back
4. 48Government of Canada (ed.), Canada’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution under the Paris Agreement. Submission to the UNFCCC, 2025.back
5. 13Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022.back
6. 45UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015.back
7. 47Canadian Sustainability Standards Board (ed.), Canadian Sustainability Disclosure Standards CSDS 1 and CSDS 2. CSSB, Toronto, December 2024.back
8. 36Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission (ed.), Telecom Regulatory Policy CRTC 2017-91: Implementation of the National Public Alerting System by wireless service providers. CRTC, Ottawa, 2017.back
9. 46National Research Council Canada (ed.), National Building Code of Canada 2020. NRC, Ottawa, 2022.back
10. 35Global Affairs Canada (ed.), “Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement (CUSMA): joint review.” GAC, Ottawa, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
11. 22Public Safety Canada (ed.), Adapting to Rising Flood Risk: An Analysis of Insurance Solutions for Canada. Report of the Task Force on Flood Insurance and Relocation. Ottawa, 2022.back
12. 39J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018.back
13. 40P. Jain, Q. E. Barber, S. W. Taylor et al., “Drivers and impacts of the record-breaking 2023 wildfire season in Canada,” Nature Communications, vol. 15, art. 6764, 2024.back
14. 42M. D. Flannigan, M. A. Krawchuk, W. J. de Groot, B. M. Wotton and L. M. Gowman, “Implications of changing climate for global wildland fire,” International Journal of Wildland Fire, vol. 18, pp. 483–507, 2009.back
15. 43S. V. Buldyrev, R. Parshani, G. Paul, H. E. Stanley and S. Havlin, “Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks,” Nature, vol. 464, pp. 1025–1028, 2010.back
16. 26H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023.back
17. 5E. Bush and D. S. Lemmen (eds.), Canada’s Changing Climate Report. Government of Canada, Ottawa, 2019.back
18. 41F. J. Warren and N. Lulham (eds.), Canada in a Changing Climate: National Issues Report. Government of Canada, Ottawa, 2021.back
19. 18P. Berry and R. Schnitter (eds.), Health of Canadians in a Changing Climate: Advancing our Knowledge for Action. Government of Canada, Ottawa, 2022.back
20. 44P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054back
21. 16Public Safety Canada (ed.), National Risk Profile: A national emergency preparedness and awareness tool, first public report. Government of Canada, Ottawa, 2023.back
22. 17Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), Canada’s National Adaptation Strategy: Building Resilient Communities and a Strong Economy. ECCC, Gatineau, 2023.back
23. 19Canadian Climate Institute (ed.), Damage Control: Reducing the Costs of Climate Impacts in Canada. CCI, Ottawa, 2022.back
24. 23Transport Canada (ed.), Action. Collaboration. Transformation. Final report of the National Supply Chain Task Force. Ottawa, 2022.back
25. 2CatIQ (ed.), Canadian insured losses from catastrophic events: 2025 annual summary. Catastrophe Indices and Quantification Inc., Toronto, January 2026.back
26. 3Institute for Catastrophe Loss Reduction (ed.), Societal losses from catastrophic events in Canada: 2025 estimates. ICLR, Toronto, 2026.back
27. 4Insurance Bureau of Canada (ed.), “Severe weather-related insured losses in Canada exceed $2.4 billion in 2025.” IBC, Toronto, January 2026.back
28. 29Insurance Bureau of Canada (ed.), “Insured losses from Calgary hailstorm reach $3.25 billion.” IBC, Toronto, February 2025.back
29. 37Insurance Bureau of Canada (ed.), “Northern Alberta wildfire costliest insured natural disaster in Canadian history.” IBC, Toronto, January 2017.back
30. 7Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators: Canada’s conserved areas. ECCC, Gatineau, 2024.back
31. 38Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators: Greenhouse gas emissions. ECCC, Gatineau, 2026.back
32. 11Statistics Canada (ed.), “Canada’s population estimates, first quarter 2025.” The Daily, Ottawa, March 2025.back
33. 20Statistics Canada (ed.), “Production of principal field crops, November 2021.” The Daily, Ottawa, December 2021.back
34. 21Canadian Institute for Health Information (ed.), National Health Expenditure Trends, 2024. CIHI, Ottawa, 2024.back
35. 10Natural Resources Canada (ed.), Canada’s record-breaking 2023 wildfire season. Canadian Forest Service, Ottawa, 2024.back
36. 31Natural Resources Canada (ed.), The State of Canada’s Forests: Annual Report 2024. Canadian Forest Service, Ottawa, 2024.back
37. 6BC Coroners Service (ed.), Extreme Heat and Human Mortality: A Review of Heat-Related Deaths in B.C. in Summer 2021. Government of British Columbia, Victoria, 2022.back

7.1Questions for the operational series

1. A-01

   How would a multi-year drought combined with peak-electricity constraints affect agriculture, municipal water and food logistics in Western Canada?

   INI-CAN-WAT-01 · drought–energy–rail model; first output: dependency graph and data cut for three basins.

2. A-02

   How much health-system surge capacity remains during concurrent heat and wildfire smoke in large western and central cities?

   INI-CAN-HLT-02 · heat–smoke surge readiness; first output: surge baseline for five health regions.

3. A-03

   How large is the protection gap by peril and province, and where does the uninsured share land?

   INI-CAN-FIN-03 · protection gap and fiscal exposure; first output: peril-by-province loss table, 2016–2025.

4. A-04

   Through which sectors and provinces would a change in North American trade terms travel fastest?

   INI-CAN-TRD-04 · trade-shock transmission; first output: input–output exposure map.

5. A-05

   What is the condition of ecosystems outside protected areas, and how fast is it changing?

   INI-CAN-BIO-05 · ecosystem condition; first output: indicator set and coverage matrix.

6. A-06

   Where do rail, port and grid assets share failure modes on the western gateway?

   INI-CAN-WAT-01 · workstream; first output: public-safe interdependence schematic.

7. A-07

   How exposed are northern and remote communities to permafrost thaw and to fuel and food supply disruption?

   To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.

8. A-08

   Which capabilities on the ladder have been tested in real events, and which are only documented?

   National capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives, one project and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

7.3The pathway

Canada is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run in Canada from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

1. 01

   One National Agenda

   bounded national questions for the year

   DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment.

2. 02

   National Desk

   coordination, records, routing and continuity

   DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027

3. 03

   National Model

   the country as a system of systems

   v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut.

4. 04

   National Portfolio

   risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions.

   7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment.

5. 05

   Foundry

   continuous computational environment

   PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-CAN-2027-Q1

6. 06

   Reports

   quarterly and annual publication

   BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda.

7. 07

   Universe

   annual proving environment

   CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027

8. 08

   Evidence and correction

   after-action, correction and renewal

   OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027.

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission

1. 01

   Mandate

2. 02

   Core Build · 1 month

3. 03

   Action · 1 week

4. 04

   Evidence seal

5. 05

   Portfolio correction

6. 06

   Next mandate

Mission

ID

MSN-CAN-2027-01 · compound drought–energy–rail

Role spine

Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)

Receiving actors

to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

7.6Feeds and signal register

Escalation routes

• none · keep monitoring
• research question
• project
• risk object
• quarterly publication
• signal report

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references.

1. 33Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (ed.), National wildland fire situation reports, 2023–2025. CIFFC, Winnipeg, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
2. 27Public Health Agency of Canada (ed.), “Avian influenza A(H5N1): current situation summary.” PHAC, Ottawa, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
3. 2CatIQ (ed.), Canadian insured losses from catastrophic events: 2025 annual summary. Catastrophe Indices and Quantification Inc., Toronto, January 2026.back
4. 1Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), National Inventory Report 1990–2024: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada. Canada’s submission to the UNFCCC, 2026 edition. ECCC, Gatineau, April 2026.back
5. 40P. Jain, Q. E. Barber, S. W. Taylor et al., “Drivers and impacts of the record-breaking 2023 wildfire season in Canada,” Nature Communications, vol. 15, art. 6764, 2024.back

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

Canada’s water system is defined by abundance in total and scarcity where people, farms and power plants are. The binding stresses at baseline are drought in the West, flood in cities and corridors, and service gaps in remote communities.

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

A low-emitting electricity system sits beside an emissions-intensive oil and gas sector. Hydro dominance makes water the key energy risk, while heat and cold set peak demand.

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

Canada is a major exporter of grains, oilseeds and potash, and its yields swing with Prairie weather. Food security at home depends on access and affordability as much as on production.

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

Health is an active system, not only an outcome. Heat, smoke and zoonotic spillover now load it each season; spending is high, and surge depth is not documented.

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

Canada holds vast forest, freshwater and marine ecosystems. Conservation stands at about half of the 2030 target, and fire is now the fastest-changing pressure.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references.

1. 8Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), “Water sources: water availability in Canada.” ECCC, Gatineau, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
2. 9Natural Resources Canada (ed.), Energy Fact Book 2024–2025. NRCan, Ottawa, 2024.back
3. 5E. Bush and D. S. Lemmen (eds.), Canada’s Changing Climate Report. Government of Canada, Ottawa, 2019.back
4. 20Statistics Canada (ed.), “Production of principal field crops, November 2021.” The Daily, Ottawa, December 2021.back
5. 4Insurance Bureau of Canada (ed.), “Severe weather-related insured losses in Canada exceed $2.4 billion in 2025.” IBC, Toronto, January 2026.back
6. 22Public Safety Canada (ed.), Adapting to Rising Flood Risk: An Analysis of Insurance Solutions for Canada. Report of the Task Force on Flood Insurance and Relocation. Ottawa, 2022.back
7. 28Indigenous Services Canada (ed.), “Ending long-term drinking water advisories.” ISC, Ottawa, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
8. 1Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), National Inventory Report 1990–2024: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada. Canada’s submission to the UNFCCC, 2026 edition. ECCC, Gatineau, April 2026.back
9. 15Canada Energy Regulator (ed.), Canada’s Energy Future 2023: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2050. CER, Calgary, 2023.back
10. 30U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025. USGS, Reston, VA, 2025.back
11. 23Transport Canada (ed.), Action. Collaboration. Transformation. Final report of the National Supply Chain Task Force. Ottawa, 2022.back
12. 21Canadian Institute for Health Information (ed.), National Health Expenditure Trends, 2024. CIHI, Ottawa, 2024.back
13. 6BC Coroners Service (ed.), Extreme Heat and Human Mortality: A Review of Heat-Related Deaths in B.C. in Summer 2021. Government of British Columbia, Victoria, 2022.back
14. 27Public Health Agency of Canada (ed.), “Avian influenza A(H5N1): current situation summary.” PHAC, Ottawa, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
15. 18P. Berry and R. Schnitter (eds.), Health of Canadians in a Changing Climate: Advancing our Knowledge for Action. Government of Canada, Ottawa, 2022.back
16. 40P. Jain, Q. E. Barber, S. W. Taylor et al., “Drivers and impacts of the record-breaking 2023 wildfire season in Canada,” Nature Communications, vol. 15, art. 6764, 2024.back
17. 7Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators: Canada’s conserved areas. ECCC, Gatineau, 2024.back
18. 31Natural Resources Canada (ed.), The State of Canada’s Forests: Annual Report 2024. Canadian Forest Service, Ottawa, 2024.back
19. 13Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022.back
20. 10Natural Resources Canada (ed.), Canada’s record-breaking 2023 wildfire season. Canadian Forest Service, Ottawa, 2024.back
21. 44P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054back

A.1Methods

The baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

A.2Model card, National Model v0

Model ID

MDL-CAN-NATIONAL · v0.1

Purpose

represent Canada as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems with forcing and transmission layers

Family

graph-based system of systems

Inputs

the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data

Method

expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from evidence and analogue events

Validation

none yet, first validation against Q1 2027 Foundry evidence

Uncertainty

qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements

Domain of validity

national scale; not for provincial or asset-level use

Reproducibility

strength table and sources published in this edition

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Model runs begin with the first Foundry cut in Q1 2027.

Cut ID

NQ-CAN-2026-Q0-1

Type

baseline documentary cut

Resolution policy

pinned · as of 30 September 2026

Sources pinned

48 cited sources, each at the edition and retrieval date in the references

Model runs

none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method

Digest

computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record

Supersedes

nothing, first cut of the series

Superseded by

NQ-CAN-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close

Lineage

1. 01

   source edition

2. 02

   pinned citation

3. 03

   finding

4. 04

   page

5. 05

   publication record

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027

• ICLR societal loss estimates³, method for uninsured losses
• Conserved areas indicator⁷, coverage and counting rules
• Field crop production²⁰, provincial yield series
• Health expenditure trends²¹, forecast and actual

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

A.7Status words

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at Nexus Standards (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

A.10Technical annex

A.1 · indicator definition, national GHG emissions

Construct

annual anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions

Unit

Mt CO₂e, 100-year global warming potentials

Scope

excludes land use, land-use change and forestry

Source

National Inventory Report 2026¹

Revision

back-revised each April edition

Known limits

about 16 months’ lag at release

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references.

1. 1Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), National Inventory Report 1990–2024: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada. Canada’s submission to the UNFCCC, 2026 edition. ECCC, Gatineau, April 2026.back
2. 2CatIQ (ed.), Canadian insured losses from catastrophic events: 2025 annual summary. Catastrophe Indices and Quantification Inc., Toronto, January 2026.back
3. 3Institute for Catastrophe Loss Reduction (ed.), Societal losses from catastrophic events in Canada: 2025 estimates. ICLR, Toronto, 2026.back
4. 7Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators: Canada’s conserved areas. ECCC, Gatineau, 2024.back
5. 20Statistics Canada (ed.), “Production of principal field crops, November 2021.” The Daily, Ottawa, December 2021.back
6. 21Canadian Institute for Health Information (ed.), National Health Expenditure Trends, 2024. CIHI, Ottawa, 2024.back

B.1The indicator set

B.2National source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

• WAT
• ENE
• FOO
• HLT
• BIO
• CLI
• INF
• FIN
• TRD
• MIN

B.3Regional reading, Canada by macro-region

Map plates for every province and territory follow in Q2 2027, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form.

Share of population by region, 2021 Census³²

B.4Atlas card, British Columbia

• province
• basin
• grid region
• corridor

Systems in view

health, energy, water, transport

Defining events

2021 heat dome, 619 deaths⁶; November 2021 atmospheric-river floods; recurrent low water, 2023–2025

Couplings

WAT → ENE hydro; CLI → HLT heat; CLI → INF corridor links

Capability evidence

public alerting in use since 2018³⁶; wildfire mutual aid in 2023³³

Gaps

basin-scale drought stress; corridor interdependence; surge capacity

Agenda items

A-01 · A-02 · A-06

B.5Canada system card

The card through which Canada appears in the North America regional edition and the global series. It summarises; it does not rank.

Context

Archetype

high-income, resource-exporting federation with a northern frontier

Population

41.5 million (2025)¹¹

Trade

about three-quarters of goods exports to the United States¹²

Losses

record insured catastrophe losses in 2024²

B.6Licences

B.7Formats and provenance

Provenance

Edition pack

The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built

Evidence cut

NQ-CAN-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026

Reproducibility

sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters

Self-check

14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release

Review

five passes scheduled before release

Publisher of record

GCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Corrections

Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references.

1. 1Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), National Inventory Report 1990–2024: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada. Canada’s submission to the UNFCCC, 2026 edition. ECCC, Gatineau, April 2026.back
2. 38Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators: Greenhouse gas emissions. ECCC, Gatineau, 2026.back
3. 2CatIQ (ed.), Canadian insured losses from catastrophic events: 2025 annual summary. Catastrophe Indices and Quantification Inc., Toronto, January 2026.back
4. 3Institute for Catastrophe Loss Reduction (ed.), Societal losses from catastrophic events in Canada: 2025 estimates. ICLR, Toronto, 2026.back
5. 4Insurance Bureau of Canada (ed.), “Severe weather-related insured losses in Canada exceed $2.4 billion in 2025.” IBC, Toronto, January 2026.back
6. 5E. Bush and D. S. Lemmen (eds.), Canada’s Changing Climate Report. Government of Canada, Ottawa, 2019.back
7. 6BC Coroners Service (ed.), Extreme Heat and Human Mortality: A Review of Heat-Related Deaths in B.C. in Summer 2021. Government of British Columbia, Victoria, 2022.back
8. 7Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators: Canada’s conserved areas. ECCC, Gatineau, 2024.back
9. 11Statistics Canada (ed.), “Canada’s population estimates, first quarter 2025.” The Daily, Ottawa, March 2025.back
10. 21Canadian Institute for Health Information (ed.), National Health Expenditure Trends, 2024. CIHI, Ottawa, 2024.back
11. 14Natural Resources Canada (ed.), The Canadian Critical Minerals Strategy and Critical Minerals List (2024 update). NRCan, Ottawa, 2022–2024.back
12. 32Statistics Canada (ed.), Census of Population, 2021. Statistics Canada, Ottawa, 2022.back
13. 20Statistics Canada (ed.), “Production of principal field crops, November 2021.” The Daily, Ottawa, December 2021.back
14. 10Natural Resources Canada (ed.), Canada’s record-breaking 2023 wildfire season. Canadian Forest Service, Ottawa, 2024.back
15. 31Natural Resources Canada (ed.), The State of Canada’s Forests: Annual Report 2024. Canadian Forest Service, Ottawa, 2024.back
16. 30U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025. USGS, Reston, VA, 2025.back
17. 29Insurance Bureau of Canada (ed.), “Insured losses from Calgary hailstorm reach $3.25 billion.” IBC, Toronto, February 2025.back
18. 37Insurance Bureau of Canada (ed.), “Northern Alberta wildfire costliest insured natural disaster in Canadian history.” IBC, Toronto, January 2017.back
19. 36Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission (ed.), Telecom Regulatory Policy CRTC 2017-91: Implementation of the National Public Alerting System by wireless service providers. CRTC, Ottawa, 2017.back
20. 33Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (ed.), National wildland fire situation reports, 2023–2025. CIFFC, Winnipeg, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
21. 12Statistics Canada (ed.), “Canadian international merchandise trade: annual review 2024.” The Daily, Ottawa, 2025.back

C.148 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1. 1Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), National Inventory Report 1990–2024: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada. Canada’s submission to the UNFCCC, 2026 edition. ECCC, Gatineau, April 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
2. 2CatIQ (ed.), Canadian insured losses from catastrophic events: 2025 annual summary. Catastrophe Indices and Quantification Inc., Toronto, January 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 7
3. 3Institute for Catastrophe Loss Reduction (ed.), Societal losses from catastrophic events in Canada: 2025 estimates. ICLR, Toronto, 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
4. 4Insurance Bureau of Canada (ed.), “Severe weather-related insured losses in Canada exceed $2.4 billion in 2025.” IBC, Toronto, January 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
5. 5E. Bush and D. S. Lemmen (eds.), Canada’s Changing Climate Report. Government of Canada, Ottawa, 2019. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
6. 6BC Coroners Service (ed.), Extreme Heat and Human Mortality: A Review of Heat-Related Deaths in B.C. in Summer 2021. Government of British Columbia, Victoria, 2022. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
7. 7Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators: Canada’s conserved areas. ECCC, Gatineau, 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
8. 8Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), “Water sources: water availability in Canada.” ECCC, Gatineau, retrieved 2026-09-30. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
9. 9Natural Resources Canada (ed.), Energy Fact Book 2024–2025. NRCan, Ottawa, 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
10. 10Natural Resources Canada (ed.), Canada’s record-breaking 2023 wildfire season. Canadian Forest Service, Ottawa, 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
11. 11Statistics Canada (ed.), “Canada’s population estimates, first quarter 2025.” The Daily, Ottawa, March 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 6
12. 12Statistics Canada (ed.), “Canadian international merchandise trade: annual review 2024.” The Daily, Ottawa, 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4
13. 13Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
14. 14Natural Resources Canada (ed.), The Canadian Critical Minerals Strategy and Critical Minerals List (2024 update). NRCan, Ottawa, 2022–2024.
15. 15Canada Energy Regulator (ed.), Canada’s Energy Future 2023: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2050. CER, Calgary, 2023. Cited in chapter 8
16. 16Public Safety Canada (ed.), National Risk Profile: A national emergency preparedness and awareness tool, first public report. Government of Canada, Ottawa, 2023. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
17. 17Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), Canada’s National Adaptation Strategy: Building Resilient Communities and a Strong Economy. ECCC, Gatineau, 2023. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
18. 18P. Berry and R. Schnitter (eds.), Health of Canadians in a Changing Climate: Advancing our Knowledge for Action. Government of Canada, Ottawa, 2022. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
19. 19Canadian Climate Institute (ed.), Damage Control: Reducing the Costs of Climate Impacts in Canada. CCI, Ottawa, 2022. Cited in chapter 6
20. 20Statistics Canada (ed.), “Production of principal field crops, November 2021.” The Daily, Ottawa, December 2021. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
21. 21Canadian Institute for Health Information (ed.), National Health Expenditure Trends, 2024. CIHI, Ottawa, 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
22. 22Public Safety Canada (ed.), Adapting to Rising Flood Risk: An Analysis of Insurance Solutions for Canada. Report of the Task Force on Flood Insurance and Relocation. Ottawa, 2022. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
23. 23Transport Canada (ed.), Action. Collaboration. Transformation. Final report of the National Supply Chain Task Force. Ottawa, 2022. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
24. 24Bank of Canada and Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (eds.), Using Scenario Analysis to Assess Climate Transition Risk: Final Report of the BoC–OSFI Climate Scenario Analysis Pilot. Ottawa, 2022. Cited in chapter 6
25. 25Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (ed.), Guideline B-15: Climate Risk Management. OSFI, Ottawa, 2023. Cited in chapter 6
26. 26H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Cited in chapter 6
27. 27Public Health Agency of Canada (ed.), “Avian influenza A(H5N1): current situation summary.” PHAC, Ottawa, retrieved 2026-09-30. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 7, chapter 8
28. 28Indigenous Services Canada (ed.), “Ending long-term drinking water advisories.” ISC, Ottawa, retrieved 2026-09-30. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 8
29. 29Insurance Bureau of Canada (ed.), “Insured losses from Calgary hailstorm reach $3.25 billion.” IBC, Toronto, February 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
30. 30U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025. USGS, Reston, VA, 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 3, chapter 8
31. 31Natural Resources Canada (ed.), The State of Canada’s Forests: Annual Report 2024. Canadian Forest Service, Ottawa, 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 6, chapter 8
32. 32Statistics Canada (ed.), Census of Population, 2021. Statistics Canada, Ottawa, 2022. Cited in the summary, chapter 3
33. 33Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (ed.), National wildland fire situation reports, 2023–2025. CIFFC, Winnipeg, retrieved 2026-09-30. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 7
34. 34Federation of Canadian Municipalities et al. (eds.), Canadian Infrastructure Report Card 2019: Monitoring the State of Canada’s Core Public Infrastructure. Ottawa, 2019. Cited in chapter 4
35. 35Global Affairs Canada (ed.), “Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement (CUSMA): joint review.” GAC, Ottawa, retrieved 2026-09-30. Cited in the summary, chapter 4, chapter 6
36. 36Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission (ed.), Telecom Regulatory Policy CRTC 2017-91: Implementation of the National Public Alerting System by wireless service providers. CRTC, Ottawa, 2017. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
37. 37Insurance Bureau of Canada (ed.), “Northern Alberta wildfire costliest insured natural disaster in Canadian history.” IBC, Toronto, January 2017. Cited in chapter 6
38. 38Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators: Greenhouse gas emissions. ECCC, Gatineau, 2026. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
39. 39J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Cited in chapter 6
40. 40P. Jain, Q. E. Barber, S. W. Taylor et al., “Drivers and impacts of the record-breaking 2023 wildfire season in Canada,” Nature Communications, vol. 15, art. 6764, 2024. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
41. 41F. J. Warren and N. Lulham (eds.), Canada in a Changing Climate: National Issues Report. Government of Canada, Ottawa, 2021. Cited in chapter 6
42. 42M. D. Flannigan, M. A. Krawchuk, W. J. de Groot, B. M. Wotton and L. M. Gowman, “Implications of changing climate for global wildland fire,” International Journal of Wildland Fire, vol. 18, pp. 483–507, 2009. Cited in chapter 6
43. 43S. V. Buldyrev, R. Parshani, G. Paul, H. E. Stanley and S. Havlin, “Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks,” Nature, vol. 464, pp. 1025–1028, 2010. Cited in chapter 6
44. 44P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
45. 45UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Cited in chapter 6
46. 46National Research Council Canada (ed.), National Building Code of Canada 2020. NRC, Ottawa, 2022. Cited in chapter 6
47. 47Canadian Sustainability Standards Board (ed.), Canadian Sustainability Disclosure Standards CSDS 1 and CSDS 2. CSSB, Toronto, December 2024. Cited in chapter 6
48. 48Government of Canada (ed.), Canada’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution under the Paris Agreement. Submission to the UNFCCC, 2025. Cited in chapter 6

C.2Publication record

Colophon

Format

A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF

Typefaces

Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)

Design standard

Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII

Accessibility

tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure

Production

Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version