Systems and sectors at baseline

5 min read0 figures2 tables15 notesNR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE.

Contents

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

WAT · Water

Share of the world’s renewable freshwater

≈7%

Canada holds about a fifth of the world’s fresh surface water, but most of it flows north, away from where people live.

Reportedlong-run meanECCC⁸

ENE · Energy

Electricity-sector emissions

50Mt CO₂e

7.2% of the national total. Hydro’s share of generation makes drought an energy risk.

Reported2024NIR 2026¹

FOO · Food

Agriculture-sector emissions

70Mt CO₂e

10% of the national total; up 1.0% on 2023 with higher fertiliser use.

Reported2024NIR 2026¹

HLT · Health

Heat-related deaths, 2021 heat dome (BC)

619deaths

The deadliest weather event in Canadian history, and the reference case for heat–health–power coupling.

Reported2021BC Coroners⁶

BIO · Biodiversity

Land in protected and conserved areas

13.7%

Against the 30% by 2030 target of the Kunming-Montreal framework; marine share 14.7%.

Reported2023ECCC CESI⁷

SYS · Cross-system

Insured catastrophe losses

9.1 · 2.4C$ bn

2024 record, then 2025. Insurance covers about 54% of societal catastrophe losses.

Reported2024 · 2025CatIQ² · ICLR³.

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The reading states where the baseline evidence points; the coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
Domain	Posture at baseline	Coupling	Status
WAT	Abundant in total, scarce where people and farms are; drought on the Prairies and in southern British Columbia is the binding stress.	WAT → ENE hydro · WAT → FOO irrigation	Inferred EQL 3
ENE	Low-emitting power; emissions concentrated in oil and gas; hydro output exposed to dry years.	ENE ↔ WAT · ENE → FOO inputs	Reported EQL 4
FOO	A major exporter of grains, oilseeds and potash; yields swing with Prairie drought.	FOO ← WAT, ENE · FOO → TRD	Reported EQL 4
HLT	Heat and smoke now load the health system each season; One Health signals include H5N1 in poultry and a domestic human case in 2024.	HLT ← CLI, ENE, BIO	Reported EQL 3
BIO	Vast forest and freshwater ecosystems; conservation at about half of the 2030 target.	BIO → WAT regulation · BIO ← fire	Reported EQL 4
CLI	Warming at about twice the global rate; fire, heat, flood and ice storms set the loss record.	forcing on all five systems	Reported EQL 5
INF	Long, thin corridors carry trade; gateways have shown capacity and continuity limits.	INF → TRD, FOO, ENE	Inferred EQL 3
FIN	Insured losses rising; about 46% of societal losses uninsured; climate-risk supervision in place for federally regulated institutions.	FIN ← CLI · FIN → households, provinces	Reported EQL 4
DAT	Digital and data dependencies of the five systems are not yet mapped at public-safe resolution.	DAT → ENE, HLT, FIN	Expert input EQL 2
AIC	Compute and data-centre growth adds new electricity and water demand; national figures are not yet consolidated.	AIC → ENE, WAT	Expert input EQL 2
MIN	34 critical minerals listed; processing and refining capacity is the binding constraint.	MIN → ENE transition · MIN ← TRD	Inferred EQL 3
TRD	About three-quarters of goods exports go to the United States; the 2025 tariffs and the 2026 review set the channel.	TRD → all sectors	Reported EQL 4

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
Code	Sector	Baseline evidence	Exposure to watch	Evidence coverage
GS-00	Cross-system	coupled losses across perils; frequency rising	compound heat–drought–fire years	PARTIAL
GS-01	Water	large endowment, uneven access; long-term advisories persist on some First Nations systems²⁸	Prairie and southern BC drought	PARTIAL
GS-02	Energy	about 60% hydro and 83% non-emitting power⁹	dry years; peak demand in heat and cold	GOOD
GS-03	Food and agrifood	grain, oilseed and potash exporter³⁰	drought yield shocks; rail and port continuity	GOOD
GS-04	Health	spending at 12.4% of GDP in 2024²¹	heat, smoke and zoonotic spillover²⁷	PARTIAL
GS-05	Finance	insured losses rising; about 54% of losses covered³	flood and wildfire insurability	GOOD
GS-06	Development	service gaps in remote and northern communities	fuel, food and water supply to remote areas	THIN
GS-07	Climate	warming at about twice the global rate⁵	fire weather, heat, extreme rainfall	GOOD
GS-08	Disaster	17 catastrophes declared in 2025²	concurrent events straining response	GOOD
GS-09	Infrastructure	long, thin trade corridors²³	flood and fire on rail and road links	PARTIAL
GS-10	Cities	growth concentrated in a few metropolitan regions³²	pluvial flooding; heat in dense neighbourhoods	PARTIAL
GS-11	Biodiversity	13.7% of land and 14.7% of marine areas conserved⁷	fire, habitat loss, invasive species	PARTIAL
GS-12	Earth observation	established national EO and monitoring programmes	data continuity and integration	PARTIAL
GS-13	Cyber and digital	dependencies not yet mapped	concentration in networks and cloud	THIN
GS-14	Policy and institutions	national adaptation strategy adopted in 2023¹⁷	coordination across jurisdictions	PARTIAL
GS-15	Science and engineering	deep research base	translation into operations	THIN

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references.

8Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), “Water sources: water availability in Canada.” ECCC, Gatineau, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
1Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), National Inventory Report 1990–2024: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada. Canada’s submission to the UNFCCC, 2026 edition. ECCC, Gatineau, April 2026.back
6BC Coroners Service (ed.), Extreme Heat and Human Mortality: A Review of Heat-Related Deaths in B.C. in Summer 2021. Government of British Columbia, Victoria, 2022.back
7Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators: Canada’s conserved areas. ECCC, Gatineau, 2024.back
2CatIQ (ed.), Canadian insured losses from catastrophic events: 2025 annual summary. Catastrophe Indices and Quantification Inc., Toronto, January 2026.back
3Institute for Catastrophe Loss Reduction (ed.), Societal losses from catastrophic events in Canada: 2025 estimates. ICLR, Toronto, 2026.back
28Indigenous Services Canada (ed.), “Ending long-term drinking water advisories.” ISC, Ottawa, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
9Natural Resources Canada (ed.), Energy Fact Book 2024–2025. NRCan, Ottawa, 2024.back
30U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025. USGS, Reston, VA, 2025.back
21Canadian Institute for Health Information (ed.), National Health Expenditure Trends, 2024. CIHI, Ottawa, 2024.back
27Public Health Agency of Canada (ed.), “Avian influenza A(H5N1): current situation summary.” PHAC, Ottawa, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
5E. Bush and D. S. Lemmen (eds.), Canada’s Changing Climate Report. Government of Canada, Ottawa, 2019.back
23Transport Canada (ed.), Action. Collaboration. Transformation. Final report of the National Supply Chain Task Force. Ottawa, 2022.back
32Statistics Canada (ed.), Census of Population, 2021. Statistics Canada, Ottawa, 2022.back
17Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), Canada’s National Adaptation Strategy: Building Resilient Communities and a Strong Economy. ECCC, Gatineau, 2023.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In Canada Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Canada’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report.