References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

11 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE.

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Canada’s risk is coupled, not cumulative
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Western heat, drought and fire year
  8. 6Lenses and readings
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 48 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.148 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), National Inventory Report 1990–2024: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada. Canada’s submission to the UNFCCC, 2026 edition. ECCC, Gatineau, April 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  2. 2CatIQ (ed.), Canadian insured losses from catastrophic events: 2025 annual summary. Catastrophe Indices and Quantification Inc., Toronto, January 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 7
  3. 3Institute for Catastrophe Loss Reduction (ed.), Societal losses from catastrophic events in Canada: 2025 estimates. ICLR, Toronto, 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
  4. 4Insurance Bureau of Canada (ed.), “Severe weather-related insured losses in Canada exceed $2.4 billion in 2025.” IBC, Toronto, January 2026. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
  5. 5E. Bush and D. S. Lemmen (eds.), Canada’s Changing Climate Report. Government of Canada, Ottawa, 2019. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  6. 6BC Coroners Service (ed.), Extreme Heat and Human Mortality: A Review of Heat-Related Deaths in B.C. in Summer 2021. Government of British Columbia, Victoria, 2022. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  7. 7Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators: Canada’s conserved areas. ECCC, Gatineau, 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  8. 8Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), “Water sources: water availability in Canada.” ECCC, Gatineau, retrieved 2026-09-30. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
  9. 9Natural Resources Canada (ed.), Energy Fact Book 2024–2025. NRCan, Ottawa, 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
  10. 10Natural Resources Canada (ed.), Canada’s record-breaking 2023 wildfire season. Canadian Forest Service, Ottawa, 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  11. 11Statistics Canada (ed.), “Canada’s population estimates, first quarter 2025.” The Daily, Ottawa, March 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 6
  12. 12Statistics Canada (ed.), “Canadian international merchandise trade: annual review 2024.” The Daily, Ottawa, 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4
  13. 13Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  14. 14Natural Resources Canada (ed.), The Canadian Critical Minerals Strategy and Critical Minerals List (2024 update). NRCan, Ottawa, 2022–2024.
  15. 15Canada Energy Regulator (ed.), Canada’s Energy Future 2023: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2050. CER, Calgary, 2023. Cited in chapter 8
  16. 16Public Safety Canada (ed.), National Risk Profile: A national emergency preparedness and awareness tool, first public report. Government of Canada, Ottawa, 2023. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  17. 17Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), Canada’s National Adaptation Strategy: Building Resilient Communities and a Strong Economy. ECCC, Gatineau, 2023. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  18. 18P. Berry and R. Schnitter (eds.), Health of Canadians in a Changing Climate: Advancing our Knowledge for Action. Government of Canada, Ottawa, 2022. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
  19. 19Canadian Climate Institute (ed.), Damage Control: Reducing the Costs of Climate Impacts in Canada. CCI, Ottawa, 2022. Cited in chapter 6
  20. 20Statistics Canada (ed.), “Production of principal field crops, November 2021.” The Daily, Ottawa, December 2021. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  21. 21Canadian Institute for Health Information (ed.), National Health Expenditure Trends, 2024. CIHI, Ottawa, 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  22. 22Public Safety Canada (ed.), Adapting to Rising Flood Risk: An Analysis of Insurance Solutions for Canada. Report of the Task Force on Flood Insurance and Relocation. Ottawa, 2022. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  23. 23Transport Canada (ed.), Action. Collaboration. Transformation. Final report of the National Supply Chain Task Force. Ottawa, 2022. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  24. 24Bank of Canada and Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (eds.), Using Scenario Analysis to Assess Climate Transition Risk: Final Report of the BoC–OSFI Climate Scenario Analysis Pilot. Ottawa, 2022. Cited in chapter 6
  25. 25Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (ed.), Guideline B-15: Climate Risk Management. OSFI, Ottawa, 2023. Cited in chapter 6
  26. 26H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Cited in chapter 6
  27. 27Public Health Agency of Canada (ed.), “Avian influenza A(H5N1): current situation summary.” PHAC, Ottawa, retrieved 2026-09-30. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 7, chapter 8
  28. 28Indigenous Services Canada (ed.), “Ending long-term drinking water advisories.” ISC, Ottawa, retrieved 2026-09-30. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 8
  29. 29Insurance Bureau of Canada (ed.), “Insured losses from Calgary hailstorm reach $3.25 billion.” IBC, Toronto, February 2025. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
  30. 30U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025. USGS, Reston, VA, 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 3, chapter 8
  31. 31Natural Resources Canada (ed.), The State of Canada’s Forests: Annual Report 2024. Canadian Forest Service, Ottawa, 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 6, chapter 8
  32. 32Statistics Canada (ed.), Census of Population, 2021. Statistics Canada, Ottawa, 2022. Cited in the summary, chapter 3
  33. 33Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (ed.), National wildland fire situation reports, 2023–2025. CIFFC, Winnipeg, retrieved 2026-09-30. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 7
  34. 34Federation of Canadian Municipalities et al. (eds.), Canadian Infrastructure Report Card 2019: Monitoring the State of Canada’s Core Public Infrastructure. Ottawa, 2019. Cited in chapter 4
  35. 35Global Affairs Canada (ed.), “Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement (CUSMA): joint review.” GAC, Ottawa, retrieved 2026-09-30. Cited in the summary, chapter 4, chapter 6
  36. 36Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission (ed.), Telecom Regulatory Policy CRTC 2017-91: Implementation of the National Public Alerting System by wireless service providers. CRTC, Ottawa, 2017. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  37. 37Insurance Bureau of Canada (ed.), “Northern Alberta wildfire costliest insured natural disaster in Canadian history.” IBC, Toronto, January 2017. Cited in chapter 6
  38. 38Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators: Greenhouse gas emissions. ECCC, Gatineau, 2026. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
  39. 39J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Cited in chapter 6
  40. 40P. Jain, Q. E. Barber, S. W. Taylor et al., “Drivers and impacts of the record-breaking 2023 wildfire season in Canada,” Nature Communications, vol. 15, art. 6764, 2024. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  41. 41F. J. Warren and N. Lulham (eds.), Canada in a Changing Climate: National Issues Report. Government of Canada, Ottawa, 2021. Cited in chapter 6
  42. 42M. D. Flannigan, M. A. Krawchuk, W. J. de Groot, B. M. Wotton and L. M. Gowman, “Implications of changing climate for global wildland fire,” International Journal of Wildland Fire, vol. 18, pp. 483–507, 2009. Cited in chapter 6
  43. 43S. V. Buldyrev, R. Parshani, G. Paul, H. E. Stanley and S. Havlin, “Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks,” Nature, vol. 464, pp. 1025–1028, 2010. Cited in chapter 6
  44. 44P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  45. 45UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Cited in chapter 6
  46. 46National Research Council Canada (ed.), National Building Code of Canada 2020. NRC, Ottawa, 2022. Cited in chapter 6
  47. 47Canadian Sustainability Standards Board (ed.), Canadian Sustainability Disclosure Standards CSDS 1 and CSDS 2. CSSB, Toronto, December 2024. Cited in chapter 6
  48. 48Government of Canada (ed.), Canada’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution under the Paris Agreement. Submission to the UNFCCC, 2025. Cited in chapter 6

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
Canada Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Edition 2026–2030
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe Q1 2027 edition reports changes against this baselineQ1 2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2027-Q1-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
CANNR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Series alias
NR-NAT-CAN-2026-BL
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. CAN edition Reports Canada 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; CAN is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In Canada Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Canada’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report.

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