- Japan 2026
- Chapter 3
Systems and sectors at baseline
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Japan’s risk is seismic, climatic and demographic at once
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Great earthquake in an ageing region
- 6Lenses and readings
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
3.1Where each system stood at evidence close
WAT · Water
Share of rivers and supply exposed to typhoon and flood extremes
2019HagibisTyphoon Hagibis breached levees at 140 points and flooded more than 70,000 homes.
Reported2019MLIT20
ENE · Energy
Renewables and nuclear in electricity
>30%Japan still imports almost all of its oil, gas and coal.
ReportedFY2023MoE2
FOO · Food
Food self-sufficiency, calorie basis
38%One of the lowest among large economies; the plan targets 45% by FY2030.
ReportedFY2023MAFF16
HLT · Health
Heatstroke ambulance transports, May–September
97,600peopleA record at the time; older people are about half of all cases.
Reported2024FDMA12
BIO · Biodiversity
Land in protected areas
20.5%Marine protected areas about 13.3%, against 30% by 2030.
Reported2023MoE19
SYS · Cross-system
Nankai Trough worst-case damage estimate
292¥ trillionAbout 298,000 deaths in the worst case (2025 revision).
Reported2025Cabinet Office9
3.2Domain posture
Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.
| Domain | Posture at baseline | Coupling | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | Ample rainfall but steep, short rivers; flood and landslide risk high; ageing pipes and seismic exposure. | WAT → HLT · WAT ↔ INF | Reported EQL 3 |
| ENE | Record-low emissions; >30% clean power; near-total fossil import dependence. | ENE ← TRD · ENE → all | Reported EQL 4 |
| FOO | 38% calorie self-sufficiency; feed and fertiliser largely imported. | FOO ← TRD, ENE | Reported EQL 4 |
| HLT | Long life expectancy; heat and ageing load care each summer. | HLT ← CLI, SEI | Reported EQL 4 |
| BIO | High endemism; protected land about 20.5%, sea about 13.3%. | BIO ↔ WAT, FOO | Reported EQL 3 |
| CLI | Warmest year on record in 2024; heavier rain and heat. | forcing on all systems | Reported EQL 5 |
| INF | Dense, ageing networks; strong seismic codes; remote regions fragile. | INF → all | Inferred EQL 3 |
| FIN | Deep markets; about a third of homes with earthquake cover; public debt high. | FIN ← SEI, CLI | Reported EQL 3 |
| DAT | Digital dependencies of lifelines not mapped at public-safe resolution. | DAT → ENE, FIN | Expert input EQL 2 |
| AIC | New semiconductor and data-centre capacity adds power and water demand. | AIC → ENE, WAT | Expert input EQL 2 |
| MIN | Critical minerals and fuels imported; stockpiles held for oil and rare metals. | MIN ← TRD | Inferred EQL 3 |
| TRD | A trading nation dependent on sea lanes for fuel, food and inputs. | TRD → all | Inferred EQL 3 |
3.3Sector screens
All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.
| Code | Sector | Baseline evidence | Exposure to watch | Evidence coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS-00 | Cross-system | compound seismic, climate and demographic stress | earthquake in an ageing region | PARTIAL |
| GS-01 | Water | steep rivers; ageing pipes | floods; seismic pipe failure | PARTIAL |
| GS-02 | Energy | >30% clean power; imported fuel2 | supply disruption; peak heat demand | GOOD |
| GS-03 | Food | 38% self-sufficiency16 | import shocks | GOOD |
| GS-04 | Health | ageing society; heat1215 | heat surge; care continuity | GOOD |
| GS-05 | Finance | deep markets; high public debt24 | catastrophe fiscal cost | PARTIAL |
| GS-06 | Development | depopulating rural regions | service withdrawal | PARTIAL |
| GS-07 | Climate | warmest year 20247 | heat and heavy rain | GOOD |
| GS-08 | Disaster | highly developed early warning | great earthquakes and tsunamis | GOOD |
| GS-09 | Infrastructure | ageing assets20 | maintenance backlog | PARTIAL |
| GS-10 | Cities | very dense metropolitan regions | urban flooding and heat | PARTIAL |
| GS-11 | Biodiversity | high endemism18 | land-use and invasive species | PARTIAL |
| GS-12 | Earth observation | strong national observing systems | continuity | GOOD |
| GS-13 | Cyber and digital | dependencies not yet mapped | systemic outages | THIN |
| GS-14 | Policy | national resilience plan27 | coordination across levels | PARTIAL |
| GS-15 | Science | deep research base | translation to regions | PARTIAL |
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references.
- 20Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (ed.), White Paper on Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism in Japan 2025. MLIT, Tokyo, 2025.back
- 2Ministry of the Environment (ed.), Progress of the Plan for Global Warming Countermeasures in FY2023. MoE, Tokyo, 2025.back
- 16Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (ed.), Food self-sufficiency ratio, FY2023. MAFF, Tokyo, August 2024.back
- 12Fire and Disaster Management Agency (ed.), “Heatstroke emergency transports, May–September 2024.” FDMA, Tokyo, October 2024.back
- 19Ministry of the Environment (ed.), “30by30 roadmap and protected-area statistics.” MoE, Tokyo, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
- 9Central Disaster Management Council, Working Group on Nankai Trough Megaquake Countermeasures (ed.), Revised damage estimates for a Nankai Trough megaquake. Cabinet Office, Tokyo, March 2025.back
- 15Statistics Bureau of Japan (ed.), Population Estimates as of 1 October 2024. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Tokyo, 2025.back
- 24Bank of Japan (ed.), Financial System Report, April 2025. Bank of Japan, Tokyo, 2025.back
- 7Japan Meteorological Agency (ed.), “Characteristics of the climate in Japan in 2024.” JMA, Tokyo, January 2025.back
- 18Ministry of the Environment (ed.), National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan of Japan 2023–2030. MoE, Tokyo, 2023.back
- 27Cabinet Secretariat (ed.), Basic Plan for National Resilience, 2023 revision. Government of Japan, Tokyo, 2023.back