Japan Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026

The State of Japan’s Interdependent Systems. The first annual edition of the Japan report. It fixes the 2026 reference state, the model, the voice and the positions against which every quarterly edition from Q1 2027 will be measured.

Read the executive summaryStart with chapter 1Cite this report
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi
Publisher of record
GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Status
Draft in stewardship review; not yet released
ReportsJPN

Country Systems Risk and Resilience

Japan 2026

The State of Japan’s Interdependent Systems

Baseline Edition 2026NR-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium
Findings12each with its status and source
Sources44numbered, editor first
Chapters and annexes11plus the executive summary
Indicators17in the data appendix, with CSV and JSON

01 · Key messages

What the edition finds.

Five of the questions the edition answers, each with its status. The executive summary has all of them, with their sources.

  1. 1,071 Mt CO₂e in FY2023, 23.3% below FY2013, or 27.1% net of removals.

    Where do emissions stand?Reported

  2. A Nankai Trough megaquake could, in the worst case, cause about 298,000 deaths and ¥292 trillion in damage.

    How exposed is Japan to great earthquakes?Reported.

  3. Clean power passed 30%, but almost all fossil fuel is imported.

    How secure is energy supply?Reported

  4. Japan grows 38% of its food on a calorie basis.

    How secure is food?Reported

  5. About 97,600 heatstroke ambulance transports in summer 2024.

    Is heat now a health hazard?Reported

All key messages and the headline finding

02 · Contents

Eight chapters and three annexes.

  1. ·

    Executive summary

    The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

  2. 1

    Chapter 1. Japan’s risk is seismic, climatic and demographic at once.

    Part I describes systems and their couplings.

  3. 2

    Chapter 2. Key findings

    Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked.

  4. 3

    Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline

  5. 4

    Chapter 4. Risks and capability

    Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank.

  6. 5

    Chapter 5. Great earthquake in an ageing region.

    A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

  7. 6

    Chapter 6. Lenses and readings

    The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole.

  8. 7

    Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda

    Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda.

  9. 8

    Chapter 8. Systems in depth

    One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

  10. A

    Annex A. Methodology

    How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

  11. B

    Annex B. Data appendix

    The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.

  12. C

    Annex C. References and record

    Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

List of figures (4)
  1. S.1Nankai Trough worst-case estimate (2025 revision)
  2. 1.1How far has Japan cut emissions, and how far is left? Emissions and targets (Mt CO₂e)
  3. 1.2Couplings between the five systems
  4. 2.1Nankai Trough worst-case estimate (2025 revision)
List of tables (44)
  1. 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
  2. 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
  3. 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
  4. 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
  5. 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
  6. 6.1Standards and regulatory watch
  7. 6.2Q1 2027 readiness pack
  8. 6.3Science and assessments
  9. 6.4Institutional reports
  10. 6.5Official statistics and national sources
  11. 6.6Industry, loss data and international sources
  12. 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
  13. 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
  14. 7.3Handoffs and routing
  15. 7.4Routing rules by publication class
  16. 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
  17. 7.6Signals at baseline
  18. 8.1State at baseline
  19. 8.2State at baseline
  20. 8.3State at baseline
  21. 8.4State at baseline
  22. 8.5State at baseline
  23. 8.6The quarterly rhythm every edition follows
  24. 8.7Who contributes what each quarter
  25. A.1Methods
  26. A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
  27. A.3Status grammar
  28. A.4From the baseline cut to the first Foundry cut
  29. A.5Evidence age and coverage
  30. A.6Coverage by system at baseline
  31. A.7Quality dimensions at baseline
  32. A.8Publication acceptance record
  33. A.9The status every value carries
  34. A.10Series terms
  35. A.11Abbreviations used in this edition
  36. A.12Technical annex
  37. B.1Baseline indicator set
  38. B.2Baseline indicator set
  39. B.3National source register
  40. B.4Regional reading, Japan by region
  41. B.5Japan system card
  42. B.6Licences of each kind of material
  43. B.7This edition in every format
  44. C.1Release path for this version

03 · Nexus Standards reading

How Nexus Standards reads this edition.

8 instruments shape these systems on the retrieval date, among them Paris Agreement · NDC, 46% by FY2030, 60% by FY2035, 73% by FY2040; GX Promotion Act, Act No. 32 of 2023; Climate Transition Bonds.

SUBMITTED 2025 · IN FORCE · ISSUED · ADOPTED 2025 · IN FORCE · AMENDED.

Chapter 6, lenses and readings

04 · Publication record

Version, dates and contributors.

The identity of this edition as its title pages record it. A review copy has no DOI; the DOI is issued at deposit.

Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Version
1.0.0, review copy
Edition date
Evidence close
Status
Draft under stewardship review; not yet released
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi
Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
Licence of the text
CC BY 4.0
DOI
Issued at deposit, on release
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-COUNTRY-JPN-2027-Q1-v1.0.0

Contributors

RoleContributionBy
ConceptualisationSeries architecture and the Japan system modelS. Valadbaygi (ed.)
MethodologyBaseline method, dependency scoring and status grammarReports editorial team, GCRI
Investigation · data curationSource review of Japanese and international releases to evidence closeReports editorial team, GCRI
Writing, original draftAll chapters; AI-assisted drafting, disclosed belowEditor · editorial team
Writing, review and editingFive review passes before releaseSteward reviewers (scheduled)
VisualisationPages, figures and tables in the Nexus design standardReports editorial team, GCRI
SupervisionEdition governance, registry record and depositS. Valadbaygi (ed.)

Review before release

PassScopeByState
1Scientific and technicalGCRI · key TScheduled
2Reproducibility of analytical valuesGCRI · key TScheduled
3Public meaning and claimsThe Global Risks Forum (GRF) · key MScheduled
4Finance-readiness boundaryThe Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · key FScheduled
5Country context and safeguardsNational pathway · key NScheduled

AI assistance was used for drafting, consistency checks and page composition. Every number, citation and status label was checked against its source by the editorial team before freeze. No AI system is recorded as an author or a reviewer, and no AI output is printed as fact without a source.

05 · Downloads

Read it in print, take the data.

FormatWhat it isStateGet it
Complete edition, print or PDFA4 or Letter, chosen in the print dialog: cover, contents, every chapter and annex, endnotes and running heads Review copyOpen for print
Indicators, CSV17 indicators with unit, year, status and source On this pageDownload
Indicators, JSONThe same indicators with the edition’s identity and licence On this pageDownload
Findings, CSV12 findings with status, evidence-quality level and references On this pageDownload
Citation, BibTeXFor LaTeX and reference managers On this pageDownload
Citation, RISFor Zotero, EndNote and Mendeley On this pageDownload
Signed PDF with DOIThe archival PDF/A with its DOI, signed with the web edition and the data bundle At releaseNot yet issued

The print and the files are produced from the same edition pack as the web pages, so they always agree. Until release they are review copies.

06 · Cite

Cite this report.

This edition is a draft in stewardship review. Cite it as a draft; the DOI and the UNI are issued at deposit, and the citation then names them.
Catalogue keyNR-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE

Standards applied to NR-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE

Cite as

S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Japan Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Japan’s Interdependent Systems. Reports, Baseline Edition 2026. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE. DOI at deposit.

Applied

NS-1 catalogue identity (a UNI is allocated at deposit and resolves to this record), NS-2 citation and attribution, NS-3b dataset metadata, NS-5 figures and maps, NS-12 software and AI disclosure.

Monitoring

Corrections are new versions with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable.

An attestation is evidence, not a certificate. Nexus Standards parts are preparatory working drafts (2026).

APA 7
Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Japan Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Japan’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/jpn/
Chicago
Valadbaygi, Saeed, ed. Japan Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Japan’s Interdependent Systems. Baseline Edition 2026. Nexus Reports NR-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE. Draft under review. Toronto: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), 2026. https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/jpn/.
BibTeX
@techreport{NR-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE,
  editor      = {Valadbaygi, Saeed},
  title       = {{Japan Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026}: The State of Japan’s Interdependent Systems},
  institution = {The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)},
  address     = {Toronto},
  year        = {2026},
  type        = {Nexus Reports, Baseline Edition 2026},
  number      = {NR-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE},
  note        = {Draft under stewardship review; not yet released. DOI assigned at deposit},
  url         = {https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/jpn/}
}
RIS
TY  - RPRT
ED  - Valadbaygi, Saeed
TI  - Japan Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Japan’s Interdependent Systems
T3  - Nexus Reports
ET  - Baseline Edition 2026
PY  - 2026
PB  - The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
CY  - Toronto
SN  - NR-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE
UR  - https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/jpn/
N1  - Draft under stewardship review; not yet released. DOI assigned at deposit.
LA  - en
ER  -
NR-CIT-1 (house style)
S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Japan Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Japan’s Interdependent Systems. Nexus Reports, Baseline Edition 2026. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE. DOI at deposit.
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Every quarter closes on a sealed evidence cut. A correction, a source or a method received before the cut is reviewed for that edition.

ContributeCorrections log
  • NR-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE
  • CC BY 4.0
  • Evidence close 30 September 2026
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