The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

5 min read0 figures6 tables2 notesNR-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE.

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Japan’s risk is seismic, climatic and demographic at once
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Great earthquake in an ageing region
  8. 6Lenses and readings
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. A-01

    How would a large earthquake in an ageing region cut water, power, roads and care together, and how long would recovery take?

    INI-JPN-SEI-01 · lifeline–care continuity; first output: dependency graph for two regions.

  2. A-02

    How deep are fuel and LNG stocks against a prolonged shipping disruption?

    INI-JPN-ENE-02 · import resilience; first output: stock-and-route register.

  3. A-03

    How exposed are food and feed supply to concurrent import and domestic shocks?

    INI-JPN-FOO-03 · food import exposure; first output: commodity dependence table.

  4. A-04

    How much heat-health surge capacity remains in large cities and rural care?

    INI-JPN-HLT-04 · heat and ageing; first output: surge baseline for five prefectures.

  5. A-05

    Where do typhoon and heavy-rain losses fall on the uninsured, and on public budgets?

    INI-JPN-FIN-05 · protection gap; first output: peril-by-prefecture loss table.

  6. A-06

    How do river basins and dams perform under more intense rainfall?

    INI-JPN-WAT-01 · workstream; first output: basin performance note.

  7. A-07

    How resilient are semiconductor and battery supply chains to seismic shocks?

    To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.

  8. A-08

    Which capabilities have been tested in real disasters, and which are only planned?

    National capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-JPN-SEI-01Lifeline–care continuity after great earthquakesInitiativeA-01PROPOSED
INI-JPN-ENE-02Fuel and LNG import resilienceInitiativeA-02PROPOSED
INI-JPN-FOO-03Food and feed import exposureInitiativeA-03PROPOSED
INI-JPN-HLT-04Heat, ageing and care surgeInitiativeA-04PROPOSED
INI-JPN-FIN-05Disaster protection gapInitiativeA-05PROPOSED
PRJ-JPN-SEI-01aTwo-region lifeline dependency graphProjectA-01PROPOSED
MSN-JPN-2027-01Earthquake–lifeline–care Universe missionMissionA-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

Japan is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run in Japan from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

  1. 01

    One National Agenda

    bounded national questions for the year

    DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment.

  2. 02

    National Desk

    coordination, records, routing and continuity

    DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027

  3. 03

    National Model

    the country as a system of systems

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut.

  4. 04

    National Portfolio

    risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions.

    7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment.

  5. 05

    Foundry

    continuous computational environment

    PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-JPN-2027-Q1

  6. 06

    Reports

    quarterly and annual publication

    BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda.

  7. 07

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027

  8. 08

    Evidence and correction

    after-action, correction and renewal

    OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027.

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNEDQ4 2027 annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-JPN-2027-01 · Earthquake–lifeline–care Universe mission
Role spine
Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
CLI-001 · emissionspublic recordreference for the 2027 seriesPUBLIC
SEI-004 · Nankai TroughINI-JPN-SEI-01lifeline–care continuityPUBLIC
SEI-005 · NotoINI-JPN-SEI-01two-region graphPUBLIC
ENE-002 · importsINI-JPN-ENE-02import resiliencePUBLIC
FOO-006 · foodINI-JPN-FOO-03import exposurePUBLIC
HLT-007 · heatINI-JPN-HLT-04heat and ageingPUBLIC
FIN-010 · insuranceINI-JPN-FIN-05 · key F reviewprotection gapPUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-JPN-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the national pathwayconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
Earthquake and tsunami informationJapan Meteorological Agencyreal timeSEI findings
Heat-illness alertsMoE · JMAdaily in summerHLT-007
Heatstroke transport countsFDMAweekly in summerHLT-007
River and rainfall informationMLITreal timeRSK-JPN-CLI-002
Electricity supply–demand outlookOCCTOdailyENE findings
LNG and oil stock dataMETImonthlyRSK-JPN-ENE-004
Disaster damage reportsCabinet Officeper eventSEI-005

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • quarterly publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-JPN-001Foreshock-sensitive advisories for the Nankai Trough (August 2024)CORROBORATEDSEI · allrisk object RSK-JPN-SEI-001
SIG-JPN-002Record heatstroke transports in 202412CORROBORATEDHLT · CLIinitiative A-04
SIG-JPN-003Repeat disasters in the same region (Noto, 2024)11CORROBORATEDSEI · CLI · HLTresearch question A-01

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references.

  1. 12Fire and Disaster Management Agency (ed.), “Heatstroke emergency transports, May–September 2024.” FDMA, Tokyo, October 2024.back
  2. 11Cabinet Office (ed.), “Damage situation of the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake.” Cabinet Office, Tokyo, retrieved 2026-09-30.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In Japan Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Japan’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report.

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