Risks and capability

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

3 min read0 figures1 table9 notesNR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE.

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1France’s risk is coupled, not cumulative
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5Hot, dry summer with low river flows
  8. 6Lenses and readings
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-FRA-CLI-001

    Extreme heat

    Driver
    heatwaves above 40 °C; tropical nights
    Exposure
    people aged 75 and over; dense cities
    Vulnerability
    isolation; housing without cooling
    Capacity
    heat-health alerts; national heatwave plan
    Cascade
    CLI → HLT · CLI → ENE cooling demand
    Horizon
    seasonal

  2. ReportedEQL 4RSK-FRA-WAT-002

    Drought and low river flows

    Driver
    dry winters; hot summers
    Exposure
    nuclear cooling, irrigation, drinking water
    Vulnerability
    three uses sharing the same low flows
    Capacity
    water restrictions; Plan Eau11
    Cascade
    WAT → ENE, FOO, HLT
    Horizon
    seasonal · 5 years

  3. ReportedEQL 3RSK-FRA-FIN-003

    Clay shrink-swell subsidence

    Driver
    repeated droughts drying clay soils
    Exposure
    10.4 million detached houses21
    Vulnerability
    shallow foundations
    Capacity
    CatNat cover15; building standards
    Cascade
    CLI → WAT → FIN → households
    Horizon
    1–10 years

  4. ReportedEQL 4RSK-FRA-CLI-004

    River and Mediterranean flash flooding

    Driver
    intense autumn storms; river floods
    Exposure
    17.1 million residents22
    Vulnerability
    building in flood-prone areas
    Capacity
    flood forecasting; risk-prevention plans
    Cascade
    CLI → INF, HLT, FIN
    Horizon
    annual

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationEXISTSrisk-prevention plans and land-use rules; adaptation pace questioned3
Monitoring and observationDEMONSTRATEDMétéo-France and national monitoring in continuous use
Early warningDEMONSTRATEDweather, flood and heatwave vigilance in real events
Preparedness and planningEXISTSthird national adaptation plan9; reference warming trajectory10
Redundancy and reservesEXISTSinterconnected grid; limited water storage
ResponseDEMONSTRATEDcivil-protection response to fires, floods and cyclones
Continuity of critical servicesEXISTSenergy and water continuity plans; 2022 showed cooling limits25
RecoveryEXISTSCatNat compensation since 198215
AdaptationEXISTSPNACC-3 measures adopted in 20259
Social protectionEXISTSsocial support and heatwave registers for isolated people
Finance and insuranceDEMONSTRATEDCatNat regime paying claims in real events14
Institutional coordinationEXISTSState, regional and local crisis structures
Technical infrastructureEXISTSnetworks exposed to heat and ground movement
WorkforceEXISTShealth and care workforce pressures documented
Research capacityADEQUATEstrong climate, energy and agronomic science
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references.

  1. 11Gouvernement (ed.), Plan d’action pour une gestion résiliente et concertée de l’eau (Plan Eau). Paris, March 2023.back
  2. 21CGDD (ed.), Retrait-gonflement des argiles : plus de 10 millions de maisons individuelles potentiellement très exposées. Ministère de la Transition écologique, Paris, 2021.back
  3. 15Parlement (ed.), Loi n° 82-600 du 13 juillet 1982 relative à l’indemnisation des victimes de catastrophes naturelles. Journal officiel, Paris, 1982.back
  4. 22CGDD (ed.), Évaluation préliminaire des risques d’inondation : exposition de la population aux inondations par débordement de cours d’eau. Ministère de la Transition écologique, Paris.back
  5. 3Haut Conseil pour le Climat (ed.), Rapport annuel 2025. HCC, Paris, July 2025.back
  6. 9Ministère de la Transition écologique (ed.), Troisième plan national d’adaptation au changement climatique (PNACC-3). MTE, Paris, March 2025.back
  7. 10Ministère de la Transition écologique (ed.), Trajectoire de réchauffement de référence pour l’adaptation au changement climatique (TRACC). MTE, Paris, 2024.back
  8. 25RTE (ed.), Bilan électrique 2022. RTE, Paris, February 2023.back
  9. 14Caisse centrale de réassurance (ed.), Les catastrophes naturelles en France : bilan 1982–2023. CCR, Paris, 2024.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In France Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of France’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report.

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