Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

4 min read1 figure0 tables14 notesNR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE.

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
    1. S.1 Abstract
    2. S.2 Key messages
    3. S.3 Headline finding
    4. S.4 At a glance
    5. S.5 What each steward reads in it
    6. S.6 What this edition is, and is not
  3. 1Germany’s risk is coupled, not cumulative
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Hot, dry summer with low Rhine water
  8. 6Lenses and readings
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

S.1Abstract

Germany enters 2027 having cut its greenhouse-gas emissions to 649 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 3.4% below 2023 and 48% below 1990, while closing its last nuclear reactors in April 2023 and ending its reliance on Russian pipeline gas within a year11617. Renewables supplied about 54% of gross electricity consumption in 20247. 2024 was the warmest year in the national record8. The floods of July 2021 killed more than 180 people, 135 of them in the Ahr valley, and caused damage of about €40 billion1415, yet only about 54% of homes carry natural-hazard insurance13. Low water on the Rhine in 2018 and 2022 restricted freight and industrial supply24; about 500,000 hectares of forest were damaged by drought, heat and bark beetles between 2018 and 202120; and flying-insect biomass fell by more than 75% over 27 years in protected areas18. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state for the five core systems, maps the dependencies through which shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer in Q1 2027. It ranks nothing and decides nothing.

S.2Key messages

The eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  1. 649 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 48% below 1990, about 35 Mt a year of cuts still needed to 2030.13.

    Where do emissions stand?Reported

  2. 2024 was the warmest year on record; the first federal adaptation law took effect in July 2024.810.

    Is the climate already changing?Reported

  3. Flash floods in small, steep valleys killed more than 180 people and caused about €40 billion of damage.1415.

    What did 2021 show?Reported

  4. Nearly half of homes have no natural-hazard cover; much damage falls on households and reconstruction funds.1314.

    Who carries flood losses?Reported

  5. Russian pipeline gas stopped; storage, LNG terminals and demand cuts filled the gap.17.

    How did the energy system cope with 2022?Reported.

  6. Low Rhine water in 2018 and 2022 restricted shipping and industrial supply.24.

    How exposed is freight to drought?Reported

  7. Insect biomass down more than 75% in protected areas; 500,000 ha of forest damaged.1820.

    How is nature faring?Reported

  8. A hot, dry summer with low Rhine water, heat and forest fires. SCN-DEU-HDR-01.

    What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input.

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-WAT-004

The floods of July 2021 killed more than 180 people in Germany, 135 in the Ahr valley, and caused damage of about €40 billion, while only about 54% of homes carried natural-hazard insurance.

Figure S.1July 2021 floods in Germany
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Deaths in Germany180+
Deaths in the Ahr valley135

Source: BMI flood report14.

Flash floods in small, steep catchments give little warning and leave little time to act. Where homes are uninsured, recovery depends on public reconstruction funds, so flood exposure is also a fiscal exposure131415.

S.4At a glance

83.6million

population, end 20246

649Mt CO₂e

emissions, 20241

≈54%

renewable electricity, 20247

10.9°C

mean temperature, 2024 record8

≈54%

homes with natural-hazard cover13

500khectares

forest damaged, 2018–202120

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of German risk.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people risk arrives as a flooded valley, a heatwave or an energy bill.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Thin natural-hazard cover, a large new infrastructure fund and an energy system in transition show where finance-readiness evidence will matter.

NEXUS

Synthesis

Germany has rebuilt its energy system fast and observes its risks well, but its rivers, forests and valleys carry growing exposure.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the state of Germany’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems in 2026, the dependencies between them, the risks that travel through them and the capabilities that hold them. It sets the questions the operational series will answer.

What it is not

Not a national risk assessment, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any federal ministry, Land, municipality, operator or company. Competent authorities at federal, Land and local level keep every mandate they hold.

What comes next

Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline, new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references.

  1. 1Umweltbundesamt (ed.), Treibhausgas-Emissionen in Deutschland 2024: Vorjahresschätzung. UBA, Dessau-Roßlau, March 2025.back
  2. 16Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Klimaschutz (ed.), “Abschaltung der letzten drei Kernkraftwerke am 15. April 2023.” BMWK, Berlin, 2023.back
  3. 17Bundesnetzagentur (ed.), Lageberichte zur Gasversorgung 2022–2023. BNetzA, Bonn.back
  4. 7Umweltbundesamt (ed.), Erneuerbare Energien in Zahlen 2024 (AGEE-Stat). UBA, Dessau-Roßlau, 2025.back
  5. 8Deutscher Wetterdienst (ed.), Deutschlandwetter im Jahr 2024. DWD, Offenbach, December 2024.back
  6. 14Bundesministerium des Innern und für Heimat (ed.), Bericht zur Hochwasserkatastrophe 2021: Katastrophenhilfe, Wiederaufbau und Evaluierungsprozesse. BMI, Berlin, 2022.back
  7. 15Prognos, IÖW and GWS (eds.), Kosten durch Klimawandelfolgen in Deutschland. Report for BMWK and BMUV, Berlin, 2022.back
  8. 13Gesamtverband der Deutschen Versicherungswirtschaft (ed.), Naturgefahrenreport 2024. GDV, Berlin, 2024.back
  9. 24Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde (ed.), Das Niedrigwasser 2018 und 2022 an Rhein und Elbe. BfG, Koblenz.back
  10. 20Thünen-Institut (ed.), Satellitengestützte Erfassung der Waldschäden in Deutschland 2018–2021. Thünen-Institut, Braunschweig, 2022.back
  11. 18C. A. Hallmann, M. Sorg, E. Jongejans et al., “More than 75 percent decline over 27 years in total flying insect biomass in protected areas,” PLOS ONE, vol. 12, e0185809, 2017.back
  12. 3Expertenrat für Klimafragen (ed.), Prüfbericht zur Berechnung der deutschen Treibhausgasemissionen für das Jahr 2024. ERK, Berlin, 2025.back
  13. 10Bundestag (ed.), Bundes-Klimaanpassungsgesetz (KAnG). Bundesgesetzblatt, Berlin, 2023; in force 1 July 2024.back
  14. 6Statistisches Bundesamt (ed.), Bevölkerungsstand: Bevölkerung am 31.12.2024. Destatis, Wiesbaden, 2025.back

Cite this summary

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Executive summary: Executive summary. In Germany Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Germany’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report.

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