Key findings

Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

3 min read1 figure0 tables14 notesNR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE.

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Germany’s risk is coupled, not cumulative
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Climate forcing
    3. 2.3 Water
    4. 2.4 Finance
    5. 2.5 Energy
    6. 2.6 Health
    7. 2.7 Biodiversity
    8. 2.8 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Hot, dry summer with low Rhine water
  8. 6Lenses and readings
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-WAT-004

The floods of July 2021 killed more than 180 people in Germany, 135 in the Ahr valley, and caused damage of about €40 billion, while only about 54% of homes carried natural-hazard insurance.

Figure 2.1July 2021 floods in Germany
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Deaths in Germany180+
Deaths in the Ahr valley135

Source: BMI flood report14.

Implication

Flash floods in small, steep catchments give little warning and leave little time to act. Where homes are uninsured, recovery depends on public reconstruction funds, so flood exposure is also a fiscal exposure131415.

What would move it

Decisions on mandatory natural-hazard insurance, flood-warning reforms after 2021 and heavy-rain events in the 2027 summer would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

    Greenhouse-gas emissions were 649 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 3.4% below 2023 and 48% below 1990.1.

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

    The 2030 target of 65% below 1990 (about 438 Mt) requires cuts of about 35 Mt a year.311.

  3. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-CLI-003

    2024 was the warmest year in the German record, which begins in 1881.8.

2.3Water

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-WAT-004

    The July 2021 floods killed more than 180 people in Germany, 135 in the Ahr valley, and caused damage of about €40 billion.1415.

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-WAT-009

    Low water on the Rhine in 2018 and 2022 restricted freight shipping and industrial supply.24.

2.4Finance

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-FIN-005

    Only about 54% of residential buildings carry natural-hazard insurance.13.

2.5Energy

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-ENE-006

    Renewables supplied about 54% of gross electricity consumption in 2024; the last nuclear reactors closed in April 2023.716.

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-ENE-007

    Russian pipeline gas stopped in 2022; supply was secured through storage, new LNG terminals and demand reduction.17.

2.6Health

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-HLT-008

    About 4,500 heat-related deaths were estimated in 2022.4.

2.7Biodiversity

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-BIO-010

    Flying-insect biomass declined by more than 75% over 27 years in protected areas.18.

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-BIO-011

    About 500,000 hectares of forest were damaged by drought, heat and bark beetles between 2018 and 2021.20.

2.8Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a hot, dry summer in which low Rhine water cuts freight and industrial supply while heat, drought and forest fires load health, forests and power. §9.3.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references.

  1. 14Bundesministerium des Innern und für Heimat (ed.), Bericht zur Hochwasserkatastrophe 2021: Katastrophenhilfe, Wiederaufbau und Evaluierungsprozesse. BMI, Berlin, 2022.back
  2. 13Gesamtverband der Deutschen Versicherungswirtschaft (ed.), Naturgefahrenreport 2024. GDV, Berlin, 2024.back
  3. 15Prognos, IÖW and GWS (eds.), Kosten durch Klimawandelfolgen in Deutschland. Report for BMWK and BMUV, Berlin, 2022.back
  4. 1Umweltbundesamt (ed.), Treibhausgas-Emissionen in Deutschland 2024: Vorjahresschätzung. UBA, Dessau-Roßlau, March 2025.back
  5. 3Expertenrat für Klimafragen (ed.), Prüfbericht zur Berechnung der deutschen Treibhausgasemissionen für das Jahr 2024. ERK, Berlin, 2025.back
  6. 11Bundestag (ed.), Bundes-Klimaschutzgesetz (KSG), as amended in 2024. Bundesgesetzblatt, Berlin.back
  7. 8Deutscher Wetterdienst (ed.), Deutschlandwetter im Jahr 2024. DWD, Offenbach, December 2024.back
  8. 24Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde (ed.), Das Niedrigwasser 2018 und 2022 an Rhein und Elbe. BfG, Koblenz.back
  9. 7Umweltbundesamt (ed.), Erneuerbare Energien in Zahlen 2024 (AGEE-Stat). UBA, Dessau-Roßlau, 2025.back
  10. 16Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Klimaschutz (ed.), “Abschaltung der letzten drei Kernkraftwerke am 15. April 2023.” BMWK, Berlin, 2023.back
  11. 17Bundesnetzagentur (ed.), Lageberichte zur Gasversorgung 2022–2023. BNetzA, Bonn.back
  12. 4Robert Koch-Institut (ed.), “Hitzebedingte Mortalität in Deutschland 2022,” Epidemiologisches Bulletin. RKI, Berlin, 2023.back
  13. 18C. A. Hallmann, M. Sorg, E. Jongejans et al., “More than 75 percent decline over 27 years in total flying insect biomass in protected areas,” PLOS ONE, vol. 12, e0185809, 2017.back
  14. 20Thünen-Institut (ed.), Satellitengestützte Erfassung der Waldschäden in Deutschland 2018–2021. Thünen-Institut, Braunschweig, 2022.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In Germany Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Germany’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report.

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