Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

5 min read0 figures5 tables17 notesNR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE.

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Germany’s risk is coupled, not cumulative
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Hot, dry summer with low Rhine water
  8. 6Lenses and readings
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Water, the baseline system chapter
    2. 8.2 Energy, the baseline system chapter
    3. 8.3 Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter
    4. 8.4 Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter
    5. 8.5 Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

Germany’s water risk runs at both extremes: flash floods in small valleys and low water on the great rivers in dry summers.

180+deaths

July 2021 floods14

≈44%

of abstraction for energy12

2023strategy

national water strategy26

Table 8.1State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Flash floodsJuly 2021: more than 180 deaths14Reported
Low waterRhine restrictions in 2018 and 202224Reported
Usecooling about 44%, public supply about 27%12Reported
Strategynational water strategy to 205026Reported

Couplings into other systems

  • WAT → TRD freight on the Rhine
  • WAT → ENE cooling
  • WAT → FIN uninsured flood losses

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • flash-flood exposure by district
  • groundwater trends in the east

Related editions

  • REG-EUR Europe
  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-05 Finance
  • GS-11 Biodiversity

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

The energy system was rebuilt under pressure: Russian gas replaced in 2022, nuclear closed in 2023, renewables above half of electricity in 2024.

≈54%

renewable electricity, 20247

2023April

last nuclear reactors closed16

2022shock

Russian pipeline gas stopped17

Table 8.2State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Renewablesabout 54% of gross electricity consumption7Reported
Nuclearlast three reactors closed 15 April 202316Reported
Gasstorage, LNG and demand cuts after 202217Reported
Emissions649 Mt CO₂e in 20241Reported

Couplings into other systems

  • ENE → industry costs
  • ENE → HLT power for care
  • WAT → ENE cooling

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • grid flexibility after coal
  • electrified heat and transport demand

Related editions

  • REG-EUR Europe
  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-05 Finance
  • GS-11 Biodiversity

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

Germany is one of the EU’s largest agricultural producers. Dry years cut yields, and insect declines threaten pollination.

≈13%

of EU agricultural output23

2018drought

yield losses22

>75%

insect biomass decline18

Table 8.3State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Productionamong the EU’s largest producers23Reported
Droughtyields cut in 2018 and 202222Reported
Pollinationinsect decline a risk to pollination18Inferred
Waterirrigation small but rising in dry years12Reported

Couplings into other systems

  • WAT → FOO rainfall and irrigation
  • BIO → FOO pollination
  • ENE → FOO inputs

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • yield losses by Land
  • pollination dependence

Related editions

  • REG-EUR Europe
  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-05 Finance
  • GS-11 Biodiversity

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

Heat is Germany’s deadliest climate hazard in most years, and an ageing population raises exposure.

≈4,500deaths

heat-related, 20224

2024record

warmest year8

2023plans

heat-protection planning

Table 8.4State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Heatabout 4,500 heat-related deaths in 20224Reported
Recent yearscontinued heat mortality in 2023 and 20245Reported
Floodsdeaths and injuries in 202114Reported
Surge capacitynot consolidated nationally,Expert input

Couplings into other systems

  • CLI → HLT heat
  • WAT → HLT floods
  • ENE → HLT cooling and care

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • heat surge capacity
  • cooling in care homes

Related editions

  • REG-EUR Europe
  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-05 Finance
  • GS-11 Biodiversity

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

Insect biomass has collapsed in protected areas, and drought and pests damaged half a million hectares of forest in four years.

>75%

insect biomass decline18

≈500khectares

forest damaged, 2018–202120

2024survey

forest condition21

Table 8.5State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Insectsmore than 75% decline over 27 years18Reported
Forestsabout 500,000 ha damaged 2018–202120Reported
Conditionforest crowns remain stressed21Reported
Red Listsmany species at risk19Reported

Couplings into other systems

  • BIO → WAT forest water regulation
  • BIO → FOO pollination
  • CLI → BIO drought and pests

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • recent insect trends
  • forest recovery and conversion

Related editions

  • REG-EUR Europe
  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-01 Water
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-05 Finance
  • GS-11 Biodiversity

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references.

  1. 14Bundesministerium des Innern und für Heimat (ed.), Bericht zur Hochwasserkatastrophe 2021: Katastrophenhilfe, Wiederaufbau und Evaluierungsprozesse. BMI, Berlin, 2022.back
  2. 12Statistisches Bundesamt (ed.), Nichtöffentliche und öffentliche Wasserversorgung und Abwasserentsorgung 2019. Destatis, Wiesbaden, 2022.back
  3. 26Bundesregierung (ed.), Nationale Wasserstrategie. Berlin, March 2023.back
  4. 24Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde (ed.), Das Niedrigwasser 2018 und 2022 an Rhein und Elbe. BfG, Koblenz.back
  5. 7Umweltbundesamt (ed.), Erneuerbare Energien in Zahlen 2024 (AGEE-Stat). UBA, Dessau-Roßlau, 2025.back
  6. 16Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Klimaschutz (ed.), “Abschaltung der letzten drei Kernkraftwerke am 15. April 2023.” BMWK, Berlin, 2023.back
  7. 17Bundesnetzagentur (ed.), Lageberichte zur Gasversorgung 2022–2023. BNetzA, Bonn.back
  8. 1Umweltbundesamt (ed.), Treibhausgas-Emissionen in Deutschland 2024: Vorjahresschätzung. UBA, Dessau-Roßlau, March 2025.back
  9. 23Eurostat (ed.), Economic accounts for agriculture: agricultural output by Member State, 2024. Eurostat, Luxembourg, 2025.back
  10. 22Bundesministerium für Ernährung und Landwirtschaft (ed.), Statistisches Jahrbuch über Ernährung, Landwirtschaft und Forsten 2024. BMEL, Berlin, 2024.back
  11. 18C. A. Hallmann, M. Sorg, E. Jongejans et al., “More than 75 percent decline over 27 years in total flying insect biomass in protected areas,” PLOS ONE, vol. 12, e0185809, 2017.back
  12. 4Robert Koch-Institut (ed.), “Hitzebedingte Mortalität in Deutschland 2022,” Epidemiologisches Bulletin. RKI, Berlin, 2023.back
  13. 8Deutscher Wetterdienst (ed.), Deutschlandwetter im Jahr 2024. DWD, Offenbach, December 2024.back
  14. 5Robert Koch-Institut (ed.), Hitzebedingte Mortalität in Deutschland 2023 und 2024. RKI, Berlin, 2024–2025.back
  15. 20Thünen-Institut (ed.), Satellitengestützte Erfassung der Waldschäden in Deutschland 2018–2021. Thünen-Institut, Braunschweig, 2022.back
  16. 21Bundesministerium für Ernährung und Landwirtschaft (ed.), Ergebnisse der Waldzustandserhebung 2024. BMEL, Berlin, 2025.back
  17. 19Bundesamt für Naturschutz (ed.), Rote Listen gefährdeter Tiere, Pflanzen und Pilze Deutschlands. BfN, Bonn, retrieved 2026-09-30.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In Germany Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Germany’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report.

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