Systems and sectors at baseline

4 min read0 figures2 tables15 notesNR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE.

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Germany’s risk is coupled, not cumulative
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Hot, dry summer with low Rhine water
  8. 6Lenses and readings
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

WAT · Water

Share of water abstraction for energy supply

≈44%

mostly power-plant cooling; public supply about 27%.

Reported2019Destatis12

ENE · Energy

Renewable share of gross electricity consumption

≈54%

the last nuclear reactors closed in April 2023.

Reported2024UBA7

FOO · Food

Share of EU agricultural output

≈13%

among the largest producers in the EU.

Reported2024Eurostat23

HLT · Health

Heat-related deaths

≈4,500deaths

in 2022; older people carry most of the burden.

Reported2022RKI4

BIO · Biodiversity

Decline in flying-insect biomass, protected areas

>75%

over 27 years, a signal of pressure on pollination and food webs.

Reported1989–2016Hallmann et al.18

SYS · Cross-system

July 2021 flood damage

≈40€ bn

more than 180 deaths in Germany; 135 in the Ahr valley.

Reported2021BMI14 · Prognos15

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATFlash floods in small catchments; low Rhine water in dry summers; cooling the largest use.WAT → ENE · WAT → TRDReported EQL 4
ENEAbout 54% renewable electricity; nuclear closed 2023; Russian gas replaced.ENE → HLT · ENE ← WATReported EQL 4
FOOA major EU producer; yields cut in dry years.FOO ← WAT, CLIReported EQL 3
HLTAbout 4,500 heat-related deaths in 2022; older people most exposed.HLT ← CLI, ENEReported EQL 4
BIOInsect biomass down more than 75%; forests damaged 2018–2021.BIO → FOO · BIO → WATReported EQL 4
CLI2024 the warmest year on record; heavy rain and heat increasing.forcing on all five systemsReported EQL 5
INFRail, roads and bridges destroyed in 2021; inland waterways exposed to low water.INF ← CLI, WATReported EQL 3
FINAbout 54% of homes with natural-hazard cover.FIN ← CLI · FIN → householdsReported EQL 4
DATData-centre growth around Frankfurt adds grid and cooling demand.DAT ← ENE, WATInferred EQL 2
AICCompute growth not yet consolidated in national statistics.AIC → ENEExpert input EQL 2
MINIndustrial base dependent on imported raw materials.MIN → ENE, industryInferred EQL 3
TRDExport-led industry exposed to freight and energy shocks.TRD ↔ ENE, INFInferred EQL 3

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemcoupled floods, droughts and energy shocks1417compound hot, dry summersPARTIAL
GS-01Waterflash floods and low water1424heavy rain; droughtGOOD
GS-02Energyabout 54% renewable power7flexibility as coal exitsGOOD
GS-03Foodmajor EU producer23drought on yieldsPARTIAL
GS-04Healthheat deaths45heat among older peopleGOOD
GS-05Financenatural-hazard cover about 54%13uninsured flood lossesGOOD
GS-06Developmentregional disparitiesrural services after disastersTHIN
GS-07Climatewarmest year 20248heavy rain and heatGOOD
GS-08Disaster2021 floods14flash floods; warning reachGOOD
GS-09Infrastructurerail, roads and waterways24flood damage; low waterPARTIAL
GS-10Citiesurban heat and heavy raindrainage capacityPARTIAL
GS-11Biodiversityinsects −75%; forests damaged1820drought, heat, pestsGOOD
GS-12Earth observationstrong national monitoringdata integrationPARTIAL
GS-13Cyber and digitaldata-centre hub around Frankfurtoutages and attacksTHIN
GS-14Policyclimate and adaptation laws1011implementationGOOD
GS-15Sciencedeep research basetranslation into operationsTHIN

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references.

  1. 12Statistisches Bundesamt (ed.), Nichtöffentliche und öffentliche Wasserversorgung und Abwasserentsorgung 2019. Destatis, Wiesbaden, 2022.back
  2. 7Umweltbundesamt (ed.), Erneuerbare Energien in Zahlen 2024 (AGEE-Stat). UBA, Dessau-Roßlau, 2025.back
  3. 23Eurostat (ed.), Economic accounts for agriculture: agricultural output by Member State, 2024. Eurostat, Luxembourg, 2025.back
  4. 4Robert Koch-Institut (ed.), “Hitzebedingte Mortalität in Deutschland 2022,” Epidemiologisches Bulletin. RKI, Berlin, 2023.back
  5. 18C. A. Hallmann, M. Sorg, E. Jongejans et al., “More than 75 percent decline over 27 years in total flying insect biomass in protected areas,” PLOS ONE, vol. 12, e0185809, 2017.back
  6. 14Bundesministerium des Innern und für Heimat (ed.), Bericht zur Hochwasserkatastrophe 2021: Katastrophenhilfe, Wiederaufbau und Evaluierungsprozesse. BMI, Berlin, 2022.back
  7. 15Prognos, IÖW and GWS (eds.), Kosten durch Klimawandelfolgen in Deutschland. Report for BMWK and BMUV, Berlin, 2022.back
  8. 17Bundesnetzagentur (ed.), Lageberichte zur Gasversorgung 2022–2023. BNetzA, Bonn.back
  9. 24Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde (ed.), Das Niedrigwasser 2018 und 2022 an Rhein und Elbe. BfG, Koblenz.back
  10. 5Robert Koch-Institut (ed.), Hitzebedingte Mortalität in Deutschland 2023 und 2024. RKI, Berlin, 2024–2025.back
  11. 13Gesamtverband der Deutschen Versicherungswirtschaft (ed.), Naturgefahrenreport 2024. GDV, Berlin, 2024.back
  12. 8Deutscher Wetterdienst (ed.), Deutschlandwetter im Jahr 2024. DWD, Offenbach, December 2024.back
  13. 20Thünen-Institut (ed.), Satellitengestützte Erfassung der Waldschäden in Deutschland 2018–2021. Thünen-Institut, Braunschweig, 2022.back
  14. 10Bundestag (ed.), Bundes-Klimaanpassungsgesetz (KAnG). Bundesgesetzblatt, Berlin, 2023; in force 1 July 2024.back
  15. 11Bundestag (ed.), Bundes-Klimaschutzgesetz (KSG), as amended in 2024. Bundesgesetzblatt, Berlin.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In Germany Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Germany’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report.

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