France 2026
Executive summary

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

5 min read1 figure0 tables14 notesNR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE.

Contents

S.1Abstract

France enters 2027 having cut its territorial emissions to 369 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 32% below 1990, but at a pace the High Council for the Climate judges too slow for the 2030 target of 270 Mt¹³⁴⁰. Its electricity is about 95% low-carbon and the country exported a record volume of power in 2024⁷, yet the same nuclear fleet showed its exposure in 2022, when corrosion repairs and heat-limited cooling cut output to its lowest level since 1988²⁵. 2022 was the warmest year on record in metropolitan France⁸, and heat caused more than 3,700 deaths in summer 2024, three quarters of them among people aged 75 and over⁴. About 10.4 million detached houses are exposed to clay shrink-swell subsidence²¹ and 17.1 million residents to river flooding²². France produces nearly a fifth of the EU’s agricultural output²³, while farmland birds have declined by about 30% since 1989¹⁸. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state for the five core systems, maps the dependencies through which shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer in Q1 2027. It ranks nothing and decides nothing.

S.2Key messages

The eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

369 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 32% below 1990, but falling about half as fast as the 2030 target needs.¹³.
Where do emissions stand?Reported
2022 was the warmest year on record in metropolitan France; the national adaptation plan now prepares for +4 °C by 2100.⁸⁹¹⁰.
Is the climate already changing?Reported
People aged 75 and over: about three quarters of the 3,700 heat deaths in summer 2024.⁴.
Who is most exposed to heat?Reported
Nuclear output fell to its lowest since 1988 in 2022, when heat and low flows limited cooling.²⁵.
How exposed is electricity to heat and drought?Reported.
About 17.1 million residents are exposed to river flooding.²².
How large is flood exposure?Reported
About 10.4 million detached houses are exposed to clay shrink-swell subsidence.²¹.
What does drought do to houses?Reported
Farmland birds have declined by about 30% since 1989.¹⁸.
How is nature faring?Reported
A hot, dry summer in which low river flows constrain nuclear cooling while heat, drought and fire load health, food and insurance. SCN-FRA-HDN-01.
What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input.

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004

Nuclear output fell to 279 TWh in 2022, the lowest since 1988, as stress-corrosion repairs coincided with heat and low river flows that limited cooling; output recovered to about 362 TWh in 2024.

Figure S.1Nuclear electricity output (TWh)

Item	Bar, scaled to the largest value	Value
2021		≈361
2022		279
2024		≈362

Sources: RTE Bilan électrique 2022 and 2024²⁵⁷.

Nuclear provides about two-thirds of French electricity, so a hot, dry summer is an energy event as well as a water and health event. When reactors cut output, France imports at peak European prices and its neighbours lose an exporter⁷²⁵.

S.4At a glance

68.6million

population, 1 January 2025⁶

369Mt CO₂e

emissions, 2024¹

≈95%

low-carbon electricity, 2024⁷

≈18%

of EU agricultural output²³

9.4t CO₂e

carbon footprint per person, 2023³

17.1million

residents exposed to river flooding²²

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of French risk.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people risk arrives as a heatwave, a cracked wall or a water restriction.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. A national catastrophe regime under rising claims, a low-carbon grid exposed to cooling limits and a slowing emissions trend show where finance-readiness evidence will matter.

NEXUS

Synthesis

France has a low-carbon power system and strong institutions, but its systems share the same summer rivers.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the state of France’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems in 2026, the dependencies between them, the risks that travel through them and the capabilities that hold them. It sets the questions the operational series will answer.

What it is not

Not a national risk assessment, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any ministry, regional or local authority, operator or company. Competent authorities in metropolitan France and the overseas territories keep every mandate they hold.

What comes next

Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline, new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references.

1Citepa (ed.), Rapport Secten, Gaz à effet de serre et polluants atmosphériques : bilan des émissions en France de 1990 à 2024, édition 2025. Citepa, Paris, 2025.back
3Haut Conseil pour le Climat (ed.), Rapport annuel 2025. HCC, Paris, July 2025.back
40Ministère de la Transition écologique (ed.), Stratégie nationale bas-carbone : projet de troisième stratégie (SNBC-3). MTE, Paris, 2024–2025.back
7RTE (ed.), Bilan électrique 2024. RTE, Paris, February 2025.back
25RTE (ed.), Bilan électrique 2022. RTE, Paris, February 2023.back
8Météo-France (ed.), Bilan climatique de l’année 2022 en France. Météo-France, Saint-Mandé, January 2023.back
4Santé publique France (ed.), Chaleur et santé : bilan de l’été 2024. Santé publique France, Saint-Maurice, 2024.back
21CGDD (ed.), Retrait-gonflement des argiles : plus de 10 millions de maisons individuelles potentiellement très exposées. Ministère de la Transition écologique, Paris, 2021.back
22CGDD (ed.), Évaluation préliminaire des risques d’inondation : exposition de la population aux inondations par débordement de cours d’eau. Ministère de la Transition écologique, Paris.back
23Eurostat (ed.), Economic accounts for agriculture: agricultural output by Member State, 2024. Eurostat, Luxembourg, 2025.back
18Observatoire national de la biodiversité (ed.), « Évolution des populations d’oiseaux communs spécialistes des milieux agricoles. » ONB–OFB, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
9Ministère de la Transition écologique (ed.), Troisième plan national d’adaptation au changement climatique (PNACC-3). MTE, Paris, March 2025.back
10Ministère de la Transition écologique (ed.), Trajectoire de réchauffement de référence pour l’adaptation au changement climatique (TRACC). MTE, Paris, 2024.back
6INSEE (ed.), Bilan démographique 2024. INSEE, Paris, January 2025.back

Cite this summary

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Executive summary: Executive summary. In France Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of France’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report.