- United Kingdom 2026
- Chapter 8
Systems in depth
One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Britain’s risk is coupled, not cumulative
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Hot, dry summer in southern England
- 6Lenses and readings
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
8.1Water, the baseline system chapter
Britain has too much water in winter and too little in summer. Flood exposure is rising while the South and East face a projected supply shortfall.
| Component | State | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flood exposure | about one in four properties in England | 8 | Reported |
| Supply | shortfall projected by 2055 without action | 9 | Scenario |
| Quality | storm overflow spills; river condition | 10 | Reported |
| Governance | water-sector reform law in 2025 | 26 | Reported |
Couplings into other systems
- WAT → HLT drinking water and river quality
- WAT → INF flooding of networks
- WAT → FIN uninsured flood losses
Evidence to bind in 2027
- basin stress in the South and East
- flood exposure in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland
Related editions
- REG-EUR Europe
- GLB Global Systems
- GS-01 Water
- GS-02 Energy
- GS-05 Finance
- XT-01 AI
8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter
The power system has changed fastest of all: coal ended in 2024 and clean power is planned for 2030. Electrification makes the grid the backbone of other systems.
| Component | State | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emissions | 373 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 53% below 1990 | 1 | Reported |
| Coal | last coal power station closed in September 2024 | 18 | Reported |
| Clean power | action plan for 2030 published | 1617 | Reported |
| Single points of failure | substation fire closed Heathrow in 2025 | 19 | Reported |
Couplings into other systems
- ENE → HLT power for care and cooling
- ENE → DAT data centres
- ENE → INF transport and airports
Evidence to bind in 2027
- substation and network redundancy
- data-centre connection demand
Related editions
- REG-EUR Europe
- GLB Global Systems
- GS-01 Water
- GS-02 Energy
- GS-05 Finance
- XT-01 AI
8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter
The UK produces around 60% of the food it consumes. Import and energy prices pass quickly to households, and drought and heat cut domestic yields.
| Component | State | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Self-supply | around 60% of food consumed | 14 | Reported |
| Imports | mainly from Europe | 14 | Reported |
| Climate | drought and heat cut yields | 4 | Reported |
| Prices | energy costs pass into food prices | 14 | Inferred |
Couplings into other systems
- ENE → FOO inputs and prices
- WAT → FOO irrigation in the East
- TRD → FOO imports
Evidence to bind in 2027
- household food access
- price transmission from shocks
Related editions
- REG-EUR Europe
- GLB Global Systems
- GS-01 Water
- GS-02 Energy
- GS-05 Finance
- XT-01 AI
8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter
Heat is the fastest-growing climate–health risk in a country built for cold. Floods and cold also load the NHS and social care.
| Component | State | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heat | about 2,985 heat-associated deaths in 2022 | 11 | Reported |
| Vulnerability | older people and those with chronic illness | 12 | Reported |
| Flooding | health effects of floods and displacement | 12 | Reported |
| Surge capacity | not consolidated nationally | , | Expert input |
Couplings into other systems
- CLI → HLT heat
- ENE → HLT power for care
- WAT → HLT water quality
Evidence to bind in 2027
- NHS and care heat surge capacity
- cooling in care homes
Related editions
- REG-EUR Europe
- GLB Global Systems
- GS-01 Water
- GS-02 Energy
- GS-05 Finance
- XT-01 AI
8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter
The UK is among the most nature-depleted countries. Species abundance has fallen by a fifth since 1970, weakening natural flood and water regulation.
| Component | State | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abundance | average decline of 19% since 1970 | 15 | Reported |
| Extinction risk | one in six species in Great Britain | 15 | Reported |
| Rivers | storm overflows and low flows | 10 | Reported |
| Targets | legally binding targets under the Environment Act | 25 | Reported |
Couplings into other systems
- BIO → WAT flood and water regulation
- BIO → FOO pollination and soils
- WAT → BIO river quality
Evidence to bind in 2027
- habitat condition indicators
- progress against Environment Act targets
Related editions
- REG-EUR Europe
- GLB Global Systems
- GS-01 Water
- GS-02 Energy
- GS-05 Finance
- XT-01 AI
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references.
- 8Environment Agency (ed.), National Assessment of Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk in England 2024. Environment Agency, Bristol, December 2024.back
- 9Environment Agency (ed.), National Framework for Water Resources 2025. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2025.back
- 10Environment Agency (ed.), Event Duration Monitoring: storm overflows annual data 2023. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2024.back
- 26UK Parliament (ed.), Water (Special Measures) Act 2025. London, 2025.back
- 1Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), 2024 UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Final Figures. DESNZ, London, 5 February 2026.back
- 18Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), “End of coal power”, closure of Ratcliffe-on-Soar power station. Press release, London, 30 September 2024.back
- 16Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (ed.), Clean Power 2030 Action Plan: A New Era of Clean Electricity. DESNZ, London, December 2024.back
- 17National Energy System Operator (ed.), Clean Power 2030: Advice on Achieving Clean Power for Great Britain by 2030. NESO, Warwick, November 2024.back
- 19National Energy System Operator (ed.), North Hyde substation fire: review of the 21 March 2025 outage. NESO, Warwick, 2025.back
- 14Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (ed.), United Kingdom Food Security Report 2024. DEFRA, London, December 2024.back
- 4Climate Change Committee (ed.), Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk: Advice to Government for the UK’s Third Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3). CCC, London, 2021.back
- 11UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Heat Mortality Monitoring Report: 2022. UKHSA, London, 2023.back
- 28Met Office (ed.), “Record high temperatures verified” (40.3 °C at Coningsby, 19 July 2022). Met Office, Exeter, 2022.back
- 12UK Health Security Agency (ed.), Health Effects of Climate Change (HECC) in the UK: 2023 Report. UKHSA, London, 2023.back
- 15State of Nature Partnership (ed.), State of Nature 2023. State of Nature Partnership, UK, 2023.back
- 25UK Parliament (ed.), Environment Act 2021. London, 2021.back