Hot, dry summer with low Rhine water

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

2 min read0 figures0 tables3 notesNR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE.

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Germany’s risk is coupled, not cumulative
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Hot, dry summer with low Rhine water
    1. 5.1 Assumptions
    2. 5.2 The cascade, step by step
    3. 5.3 The scenario as a table of steps
  8. 6Lenses and readings
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-DEU-HDR-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline
the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers
a dry winter and spring; low Alpine snowmelt; repeated heatwaves in July and August
Analogues
summers 2018 and 202224
Interventions
none modelled, the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state
narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

  1. 1

    CLI → WAT

    low rainfall and snowmelt cut Rhine and Elbe levels.

    2018 · 2022

  2. 2

    WAT → TRD

    barges sail part-loaded; freight costs rise

    202224

  3. 3

    TRD → industry

    chemical and steel plants cut output for lack of inputs.

    2018

  4. 4

    CLI → HLT

    heat deaths among older people rise

    20224

  5. 5

    CLI → BIO

    forest fires and bark-beetle damage spread

    2018–202120

  6. 6

    WAT → ENE

    cooling-water limits on thermal plants

    2018 · 2022

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-DEU-HDR-01 would travel through Germany’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

StepWhat happensSource
01 Climate to waterLow rainfall and snowmelt cut Rhine and Elbe levels. Analogue or source: 2018 · 2022.Edition DEU, scenario SCN-DEU-HDR-01, step 1
02 Water to tradeBarges sail part-loaded; freight costs rise. Analogue or source: 2022 [24].Edition DEU, scenario SCN-DEU-HDR-01, step 2
03 Trade to industryChemical and steel plants cut output for lack of inputs. Analogue or source: 2018.Edition DEU, scenario SCN-DEU-HDR-01, step 3
04 Climate to healthHeat deaths among older people rise. Analogue or source: 2022 [4].Edition DEU, scenario SCN-DEU-HDR-01, step 4
05 Climate to biodiversityForest fires and bark-beetle damage spread. Analogue or source: 2018–2021 [20].Edition DEU, scenario SCN-DEU-HDR-01, step 5
06 Water to energyCooling-water limits on thermal plants. Analogue or source: 2018 · 2022.Edition DEU, scenario SCN-DEU-HDR-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Germany 2026, scenario SCN-DEU-HDR-01 (2026); Germany 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references.

  1. 24Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde (ed.), Das Niedrigwasser 2018 und 2022 an Rhein und Elbe. BfG, Koblenz.back
  2. 4Robert Koch-Institut (ed.), “Hitzebedingte Mortalität in Deutschland 2022,” Epidemiologisches Bulletin. RKI, Berlin, 2023.back
  3. 20Thünen-Institut (ed.), Satellitengestützte Erfassung der Waldschäden in Deutschland 2018–2021. Thünen-Institut, Braunschweig, 2022.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 5: Hot, dry summer with low Rhine water. In Germany Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Germany’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report.

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Sector signature

The sectors behind Germany.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

Signature

Water and its partners

Water gives irrigation to food (0.8), cooling water and hydropower to energy (0.6) and environmental flows to biodiversity (0.6).

W · E · I · F · H · B.

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.43 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Food → Biodiversity · land conversion0.6
  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Water → Biodiversity · environmental flows0.6
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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