Risks and capability

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

3 min read0 figures1 table8 notesNR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE.

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Britain’s risk is coupled, not cumulative
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5Hot, dry summer in southern England
  8. 6Lenses and readings
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GBR-CLI-001

    Extreme heat

    Driver
    heatwaves above 35–40 °C
    Exposure
    older people; care homes; dense cities
    Vulnerability
    housing not designed for heat; limited cooling
    Capacity
    heat-health alerts; NHS surge planning
    Cascade
    CLI → HLT · CLI → INF rail and power
    Horizon
    seasonal

  2. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GBR-CLI-002

    Surface-water and river flooding

    Driver
    extreme rainfall; storm sequences
    Exposure
    6.3 million properties in England8
    Vulnerability
    urban drainage capacity; cover affordability
    Capacity
    flood warnings; defences; Flood Re21
    Cascade
    WAT → INF, HLT, FIN
    Horizon
    annual

  3. ScenarioEQL 3RSK-GBR-WAT-003

    Drought and water-supply shortfall

    Driver
    dry summers; population growth
    Exposure
    South and East of England
    Vulnerability
    leakage; limited storage
    Capacity
    new reservoirs; transfers; demand management9
    Cascade
    WAT → HLT, FOO, BIO
    Horizon
    5–30 years

  4. ReportedEQL 3RSK-GBR-INF-004

    Single points of failure in lifelines

    Driver
    fire, flood or cyber event at a critical node
    Exposure
    airports, hospitals, data centres, rail
    Vulnerability
    limited redundancy at key substations19
    Capacity
    resilience framework27; backup supply
    Cascade
    ENE → INF → DAT, TRD
    Horizon
    any time

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationEXISTSplanning rules and flood defences; adaptation behind risk6
Monitoring and observationDEMONSTRATEDMet Office and agency monitoring in continuous use
Early warningDEMONSTRATEDweather, flood and heat-health alerts in real events
Preparedness and planningEXISTSNational Risk Register7; Resilience Framework27
Redundancy and reservesEXISTSgrid and water redundancy uneven; single points of failure19
ResponseDEMONSTRATEDemergency response to storms, floods and heat
Continuity of critical servicesEXISTSdata centres designated CNI22; continuity tested event by event
RecoveryEXISTSrecovery schemes after major floods
AdaptationEXISTSnational adaptation programme; CCC finds gaps6
Social protectionEXISTSwelfare and cost-of-living support
Finance and insuranceEXISTSflood cover via Flood Re until 203921
Institutional coordinationEXISTSUK and devolved resilience structures
Technical infrastructureEXISTSageing water and drainage networks
WorkforceEXISTShealth and care workforce pressures documented
Research capacityADEQUATEstrong climate and environmental science
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references.

  1. 8Environment Agency (ed.), National Assessment of Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk in England 2024. Environment Agency, Bristol, December 2024.back
  2. 21Flood Re (ed.), Annual Report and Accounts 2024 and Transition Plan to 2039. Flood Re, London, 2024.back
  3. 9Environment Agency (ed.), National Framework for Water Resources 2025. Environment Agency, Bristol, 2025.back
  4. 19National Energy System Operator (ed.), North Hyde substation fire: review of the 21 March 2025 outage. NESO, Warwick, 2025.back
  5. 27Cabinet Office (ed.), The UK Government Resilience Framework. HM Government, London, December 2022.back
  6. 6Climate Change Committee (ed.), Progress in Adapting to Climate Change: 2025 Report to Parliament. CCC, London, 2025.back
  7. 7Cabinet Office (ed.), National Risk Register 2023 edition. HM Government, London, 2023.back
  8. 22Department for Science, Innovation and Technology (ed.), “Data centres designated Critical National Infrastructure.” Press release, London, September 2024.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In United Kingdom Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the United Kingdom’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report.

ReportsContribute

Send evidence or a correction on United Kingdom.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.

Nexus StandardsCountry Systems Risk and Resilience

Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.

Nexus Standards

Profiles · conformance · crosswalks

Not for profit

Our articles, maps and twins are free to read and free to republish. Readers and partners keep it that way.

Support our work

Who funds us

Nexus Standards is a not-for-profit institution. To ask who funds a piece of work, use the funding questions form.

Independence

Editors and the expert reviewers named on each article decide what we publish. Funders and partners do not review or approve articles before publication.

Corrections policy

Licence

Articles: CC BY 4.0. Figures, maps, twins and data: CC BY 4.0. Other uses: ask through the permissions form.