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offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gp-b\"\/><\/linearGradient><\/defs><\/svg><div class=\"nrp\"><div class=\"nrp-wrap\"><article class=\"nrp-flow\"><header class=\"nrp-hero\"><div class=\"nrp-hero-grid\"><div><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Reports<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Baseline Edition 2026<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Complete edition<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h1 class=\"pp-hero-title nrp-hero-title-l\">Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk<\/h1><p class=\"nrp-lede\"><\/p><div class=\"nrp-actions\"><button class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"primary\" type=\"button\" data-nrp-act=\"print\" hidden><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M6 18H4a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-5a2 2 0 0 1 2-2h16a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v5a2 2 0 0 1-2 2h-2\"\/><path d=\"M6 9V3a1 1 0 0 1 1-1h10a1 1 0 0 1 1 1v6\"\/><rect x=\"6\" y=\"14\" width=\"12\" height=\"8\" rx=\"1\"\/><\/svg>Print or save as PDF<\/button><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-01\/\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M19 12H5\"\/><path d=\"m12 19-7-7 7-7\"\/><\/svg>Edition home<\/a><\/div><p class=\"nrp-note nrp-noprint\">Choose A4 or Letter in the print dialog; running heads and page numbers are added in print. This is a review copy: the signed PDF with its DOI is issued at release.<\/p><\/div><div><div class=\"nrp-cover\"><div class=\"nrp-cover-top\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">SR-01<\/span><\/div><span class=\"nrp-cover-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><p class=\"nrp-cover-k\">Strategic Systems<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cover-t\">Global Polycrisis 2026<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cover-s\"><\/p><div class=\"nrp-cover-foot\"><span>Baseline Edition 2026<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><span><abbr title=\"The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation\">GCRI<\/abbr> for the Nexus Consortium<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block nrp-imprint\" aria-label=\"Imprint\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Imprint<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Editor<\/dt><dd>Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)<\/dd><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto<\/dd><dt>Report number<\/dt><dd class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/dd><dt>Evidence close<\/dt><dd>30 September 2026, cut DC-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-B0<\/dd><dt>Status<\/dt><dd>Draft under stewardship review; not yet released<\/dd><dt>DOI and UNI<\/dt><dd>Issued at deposit<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd>CC BY 4.0 for Nexus-authored text, tables and figures; third-party material keeps its own licence<\/dd><dt>Cite as<\/dt><dd>Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Strategic <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> Report 2026: Global <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h120\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 sys.fragility.polycrisis\" data-tk=\"Systemic and compound events \u00b7 Structural fragility of interconnected systems\" data-td=\"Several global crises, such as conflict, climate, debt, disease and energy, interacting so that each worsens the others and the joint harm exceeds their sum.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H120\" data-tr=\"draft\">Polycrisis<\/a> and Cascading Systems Risk (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-01\/<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" aria-label=\"Contents\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Contents<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">\u00b7<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-part-summary\">Executive summary<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">1<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-part-coupled-system\">Chapter 1. Crises are entangled, not stacked<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">2<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-part-findings\">Chapter 2. Key findings<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">3<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-part-systems-and-sectors\">Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">4<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-part-risk-and-capability\">Chapter 4. Risks and capability<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">5<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-part-scenario\">Chapter 5. Concurrent breadbasket shortfall and energy price shock<\/a>.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">6<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-part-lenses-and-readings\">Chapter 6. Lenses and readings<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">7<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-part-agenda\">Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">8<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-part-systems-in-depth\">Chapter 8. Systems in depth<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-part-methodology\">Annex A. Methodology<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">B<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-part-data\">Annex B. Data appendix<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">C<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-part-references\">Annex C. References and record<\/a><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-part-summary\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-01\/\">Global Polycrisis 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Executive summary<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Executive summary<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>5 min read<\/span><span>1 figure<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>16 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span>.<\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.1<\/span><span>Abstract<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-prose\"><p>The world in 2026 faces crises that are entangled rather than additive. Researchers identify three causal mechanisms: common causes that stress several <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> at once, domino effects that carry a shock from one system to the next, and feedbacks between systems that amplify both<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup>. The 2026 evidence shows all three. Warming at 1.43 \u00b0C in 2025, after a record 1.55 \u00b0C in 2024, is a common cause across water, food, health and nature<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>. Natural-disaster losses of US$224 billion in 2025, half of them uninsured, move through household balance sheets and public budgets<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>, where 3.4 billion people already live in countries that spend more on interest than on health or education<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup>. About 673 million people faced hunger in 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup> and 123.2 million were forcibly displaced<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup>. Six of nine planetary boundaries are transgressed<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup>. This Baseline Edition maps the mechanisms, fixes the reference state, and sets the questions the 2027 edition will test. It forecasts no collapse and ranks no threat.<\/p><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.2<\/span><span>Key messages<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Six readings that frame the global baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-km\"><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">1.43 \u00b0C above 1850\u20131900 in 2025, after a record 1.55 \u00b0C in 2024; 2023\u20132025 averaged 1.48 \u00b0C.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-n40\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-r40\" aria-label=\"Note 40\">40<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>How warm is the world?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Insured losses exceeded US$100 billion for the sixth year running; 2025 losses were driven by floods, storms and wildfires.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Are disaster losses rising?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Half of 2025 losses were uninsured; in Asia almost nine-tenths were.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Who carries the losses?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">No: energy CO\u2082 set a record in 2024, although clean power supplied about 41% of electricity.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Are emissions falling?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">673 million people faced hunger in 2024; concurrent breadbasket failure is a rising <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 tail-risk\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Risk from outcomes at the far end of a distribution, which are rare but carry very large consequences and often dominate total expected harm.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">tail risk<\/a>.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Is the food system stable?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Wildlife populations fell by 73% on average from 1970 to 2020; six of nine planetary boundaries are transgressed.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-n20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>How fast is nature changing?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Debt service: 3.4 billion people live where interest outweighs health or education spending.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>What constrains the response?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">A concurrent breadbasket shortfall coinciding with an energy and fertiliser price shock. SCN-SR01-BBF-01.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>What will 2027 test first?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.3<\/span><span>Headline finding<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-003<\/span><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Insurers covered about 48% of the US$224 billion in natural-disaster losses in 2025, about 70% in North America, about half in Europe, about 12% in Asia and under a fifth in Africa.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure S.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-fig1-t\">Natural-disaster losses in 2025 (US$ billion)<\/span><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">Insured<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"93.1\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">108<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Uninsured<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">116<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: Munich Re NatCatSERVICE 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>; the uninsured share is the difference between overall and insured losses.<\/p><\/figure><p class=\"nrp-p\">The <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 protection-gap\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The difference between total economic losses from hazards and the share covered by insurance or other pre-arranged protection, leaving households, firms and governments to absorb the rest.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">protection gap<\/a> is widest where exposure is growing fastest and fiscal space is thinnest. Uninsured losses become household debt, delayed reconstruction and pressure on public budgets, which feed back into vulnerability before the next event<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.4<\/span><span>At a glance<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">8.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">billion<\/span><p>people, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">1.55<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">\u00b0C<\/span><p>record year, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-n41\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-r41\" aria-label=\"Note 41\">41<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">423.9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">ppm<\/span><p>CO\u2082 concentration, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">57.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Gt CO\u2082e<\/span><p>GHG emissions, 2023<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">123.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>forcibly displaced, end-2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">102<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">US$ tn<\/span><p>public debt, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.5<\/span><span>What each steward reads in it<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-cards\" data-n=\"3\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GCRI \u00b7 KEY T<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Technical Truth<\/h3><p>The evidence supports an entangled reading of global risk.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><abbr title=\"The Global Risks Forum\">GRF<\/abbr> \u00b7 KEY M<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Public Meaning<\/h3><p>For most people global risk arrives as a price rise, a heat wave or a flood, and its burden depends on where they live.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><abbr title=\"The Global Risks Alliance\">GRA<\/abbr> \u00b7 KEY F<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Capital Meaning<\/h3><p>Readiness implications only. About half of disaster losses are uninsured, debt service crowds out adaptation, and climate disclosure standards are spreading.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEXUS<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Synthesis<\/h3><p>The world\u2019s crises share causes and channels.<\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.6<\/span><span>What this edition is, and is not<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What this edition is<\/h3><p>A question-led baseline: how crises in climate, food, energy, finance, health and conflict become entangled through common causes, domino effects and feedbacks. It reads the same global evidence as the global edition, through the mechanisms that connect it.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What it is not<\/h3><p>Not a list of crises, a prediction of collapse, a ranking of threats or countries, or a policy recommendation. It states where the scientific community disagrees before stating what this edition concludes.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What comes next<\/h3><p>National, regional and sector evidence binds each mechanism in 2027. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline, new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-01\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a>.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>M. Lawrence, T. Homer-Dixon, S. Janzwood, J. Rockstr\u00f6m, O. Renn and J. F. Donges, \u201cGlobal <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h120\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 sys.fragility.polycrisis\" data-tk=\"Systemic and compound events \u00b7 Structural fragility of interconnected systems\" data-td=\"Several global crises, such as conflict, climate, debt, disease and energy, interacting so that each worsens the others and the joint harm exceeds their sum.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H120\" data-tr=\"draft\">polycrisis<\/a>: the causal mechanisms of crisis entanglement,\u201d Global Sustainability, vol. 7, e6, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, WMO-No. 1391. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, March 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2025: It Is Time for Reform. UNCTAD, Geneva, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025. FAO, Rome, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>UNHCR (ed.), Global Trends: <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h57\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 soc.humanitarian.mass-displacement\" data-tk=\"Society, conflict and economy \u00b7 Humanitarian crises\" data-td=\"Large numbers of people forced to leave their homes by conflict, disaster or collapse, straining host areas and services.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H57\" data-tr=\"draft\">Forced Displacement<\/a> in 2024. UNHCR, Copenhagen, June 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>K. Richardson, W. Steffen, W. Lucht et al., \u201cEarth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries,\u201d Science Advances, vol. 9, eadh2458, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-n40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), \u201cWMO confirms 2025 was one of warmest years on record.\u201d Press release. WMO, Geneva, January 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-r40\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 40\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2025. Ember, London, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>F. Gaupp, J. Hall, S. Hochrainer-Stigler and S. Dadson, \u201cChanging risks of simultaneous global breadbasket failure,\u201d Nature <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a>, vol. 10, pp. 54\u201357, 2020.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>WWF (ed.), Living Planet Report 2024: A System in Peril. WWF, Gland, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-reduction\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Preventing new risk, reducing existing risk and managing residual risk, all contributing to resilience.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Risk Reduction<\/a> 2025: Resilience Pays. UNDRR, Geneva, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results. United Nations, New York, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-n41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2024, WMO-No. 1368. WMO, Geneva, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-r41\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 41\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air \u2026 please! UNEP, Nairobi, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cs-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-part-coupled-system\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-01\/\">Global Polycrisis 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 1<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Crises are entangled, not stacked<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Part I describes systems and their couplings. It ranks no country and assesses no government or organisation.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>7 min read<\/span><span>2 figures<\/span><span>2 tables<\/span><span>14 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span>.<\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.1<\/span><span>The questions this part answers<\/span><\/h2><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Key questions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Where is <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 global-risk\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Nexus risk class: a risk whose hazard, consequences or causal chain crosses national borders and acts at continental or planetary scale, so that no single country can assess or manage it alone.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">global risk<\/a> concentrated, and in which <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>?<\/li><li>Which couplings carry shocks across sectors and borders?<\/li><li>Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?<\/li><li>What must the federation measure first in 2027?<\/li><\/ul><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">In this part<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Narrative<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Headline finding<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Lead figure<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Five mechanism chapters<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Twelve-domain reading<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Sector screens<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Dependency matrix<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Risk objects<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Capability ladder<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Scenario<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Three lenses<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Portfolio<\/li><\/ul><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.2<\/span><span>The argument<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-prose\"><p><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h120\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 sys.fragility.polycrisis\" data-tk=\"Systemic and compound events \u00b7 Structural fragility of interconnected systems\" data-td=\"Several global crises, such as conflict, climate, debt, disease and energy, interacting so that each worsens the others and the joint harm exceeds their sum.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H120\" data-tr=\"draft\">Polycrisis<\/a> is often used as a mood. This edition uses it as a model. Lawrence and co-authors define three mechanisms through which crises become entangled: common causes that stress several <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> at once, domino effects that carry a shock from one system to the next, and inter-systemic feedbacks that amplify both<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup>. Each can be observed, and each can be tested.<\/p><p>The forcing layer is moving fast. 2024 was the warmest year on record at 1.55 \u00b0C above the late nineteenth century, and 2025 the second or third warmest at 1.43 \u00b0C; the eleven years 2015\u20132025 are the eleven warmest observed. Earth\u2019s energy imbalance and ocean heat content reached record highs in 2025, which means the system is still gaining heat<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>Losses follow, but unevenly. Natural disasters caused US$224 billion in losses in 2025, and insured losses exceeded US$100 billion for the sixth year running. No major <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h2\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.cyclone.tropical-cyclone\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Cyclonic storm systems\" data-td=\"A warm-core rotating storm over tropical oceans whose winds, rain and surge threaten coasts and inland river basins.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H2\" data-tr=\"draft\">hurricane<\/a> struck the United States mainland; the total was driven by floods, severe storms and wildfires, led by the Los Angeles fires at about US$53 billion<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>. Frequency, not one peak event, now sets the global loss record.<\/p><p>Who pays depends on where the hazard lands. Insurers covered about 70% of losses in North America but about 12% in Asia and under a fifth in Africa<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>. Where cover is thin, losses fall on households and on public budgets that are already stretched: 3.4 billion people live in countries that spend more on interest than on health or education<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>Beneath the losses, the core systems are already under strain. About 673 million people faced hunger in 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup>, 2.2 billion lacked safely managed drinking water<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup>, air pollution kills about 6.7 million people a year<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup>, and monitored wildlife populations have fallen by 73% on average since 1970<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup>. Each of these is coupled to the others through land, water and energy<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>New couplings are forming at the frontier. Data centres used about 415 TWh of electricity in 2024, about 1.5% of the world total, and their use is projected to roughly double by 2030<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup>. The minerals behind batteries, grids and chips are refined in very few places: the top three refining countries hold, on average, about 86% of supply for key energy minerals<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-n36\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-r36\" aria-label=\"Note 36\">36<\/a><\/sup>. Technology risk is therefore also energy, water and supply-chain risk.<\/p><p>Capabilities have grown, but unevenly. 108 countries reported multi-hazard early-warning systems in 2024, more than twice as many as in 2015<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-n35\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-r35\" aria-label=\"Note 35\">35<\/a><\/sup>, and just over half of the world\u2019s people are now covered by at least one social-protection benefit<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-n44\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-r44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup>. Adaptation finance, however, falls short of need by an estimated US$187\u2013359 billion a year<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-n42\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-r42\" aria-label=\"Note 42\">42<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>This edition therefore reads <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 global-risk\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Nexus risk class: a risk whose hazard, consequences or causal chain crosses national borders and acts at continental or planetary scale, so that no single country can assess or manage it alone.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">global risk<\/a> as a property of couplings rather than a ranking of threats. The dependency matrix, the risk objects, the capability ladder and the compound scenario that follow all ask the same two questions: where does a shock travel next, and who holds the capability to stop it?<\/p><\/div><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 1.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-fig1-t\">Where did 2025\u2019s natural-disaster losses fall? Overall losses by region (US$ billion)<\/span><p class=\"nrp-fig-what\">North America, including Central America and the Caribbean, carried the largest losses, and about 70% of them were insured. Asia\u2019s losses were more than half as large, but only about US$9 billion was insured. Africa\u2019s recorded losses were small in money terms but almost entirely uninsured<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">North America<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">133<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Asia<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"54.9\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">73<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Europe<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"8.3\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">11<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Africa<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"2.3\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">3<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2025.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Figure ID FIG-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-01-003<\/p><\/figure><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">93<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">US$ bn<\/span><p>insured in North America<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">US$ bn<\/span><p>insured in Asia<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">17,200<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">deaths<\/span><p>in natural disasters, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">166<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">US$ bn<\/span><p>from floods, storms and wildfires<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.3<\/span><span>Twenty couplings between five systems<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The global matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited assessments and analogue events; they set the starting graph that federation evidence will test in 2027.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-fig2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-fig2-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 1.2<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-fig2-t\">Couplings between the five systems<\/span><p class=\"nrp-fig-what\">Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.<\/p><\/figcaption><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-ring\" viewBox=\"0 0 340 340\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"Coupling ring: 20 typed couplings between water, energy, food, health and biodiversity. The matrix in the next table carries every value.\" data-nx-z=\"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\"><\/svg><ul class=\"nrp-legend\"><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"STRONG\"><\/span>Strong<\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"MODERATE\"><\/span>Moderate<\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"WEAK\"><\/span>Weak<\/li><\/ul><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: this edition&#8217;s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.<\/p><\/figure><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 1.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">From, to<\/th><th scope=\"col\">WAT<\/th><th scope=\"col\">ENE<\/th><th scope=\"col\">FOO<\/th><th scope=\"col\">HLT<\/th><th scope=\"col\">BIO<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><b>WAT<\/b> Water<\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">hydro \u00b7 thermal cooling<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">irrigation \u00b7 rain-fed yield<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">safe water \u00b7 sanitation<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\"><code>flows<\/code> \u00b7 <code>wetlands<\/code><\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>ENE<\/b> Energy<\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\"><code>pumping<\/code> \u00b7 <code>desalination<\/code><\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">fuel \u00b7 fertiliser \u00b7 cold chain<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">air pollution \u00b7 cooling<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">land use \u00b7 mining<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>FOO<\/b> Food<\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">\u224870% of withdrawals<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">bioenergy feedstock<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">nutrition \u00b7 food safety<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">land conversion<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>HLT<\/b> Health<\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">workforce<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">workforce<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\"><code>labour<\/code> \u00b7 <code>disease<\/code><\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">residues<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>BIO<\/b> Biodiversity<\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\"><code>regulation<\/code> \u00b7 <code>filtration<\/code><\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\"><code>biomass<\/code> \u00b7 <code>hydrology<\/code><\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\"><code>pollination<\/code> \u00b7 <code>soils<\/code><\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\"><code>zoonoses<\/code> \u00b7 <code>medicines<\/code><\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"6\">Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Transmission paths<\/h3><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 FOO \u2192 TRD<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Heat and drought in several breadbaskets at once cut exports and raise prices.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> 2010\u20132011 price spike<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">ENE \u2192 FOO<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Gas and fertiliser prices pass into food prices.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> 2022 price shock<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 WAT \u2192 ENE<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Drought cuts hydro and cooling water for thermal plants.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> 2022 European drought<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">BIO \u2192 HLT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Land-use change raises zoonotic spillover risk.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> IPBES nexus<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-n16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">FIN \u2192 all<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Debt service crowds out adaptation and recovery.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> post-2022 debt stress<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.4<\/span><span>Reinforcing loops<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 1.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Loop<\/th><th scope=\"col\">First direction<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Second direction<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">WAT and FOO<\/span><\/td><td>Water to food: irrigation \u00b7 rain-fed yield<\/td><td>Food to water: \u224870% of withdrawals<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">WAT and BIO<\/span><\/td><td>Water to biodiversity: <code>flows<\/code> \u00b7 <code>wetlands<\/code><\/td><td>Biodiversity to water: <code>regulation<\/code> \u00b7 <code>filtration<\/code><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FOO and BIO<\/span><\/td><td>Food to biodiversity: land conversion<\/td><td>Biodiversity to food: <code>pollination<\/code> \u00b7 <code>soils<\/code><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"3\">A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-01\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a>.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>M. Lawrence, T. Homer-Dixon, S. Janzwood, J. Rockstr\u00f6m, O. Renn and J. F. Donges, \u201cGlobal <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h120\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 sys.fragility.polycrisis\" data-tk=\"Systemic and compound events \u00b7 Structural fragility of interconnected systems\" data-td=\"Several global crises, such as conflict, climate, debt, disease and energy, interacting so that each worsens the others and the joint harm exceeds their sum.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H120\" data-tr=\"draft\">polycrisis<\/a>: the causal mechanisms of crisis entanglement,\u201d Global Sustainability, vol. 7, e6, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, WMO-No. 1391. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, March 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2025: It Is Time for Reform. UNCTAD, Geneva, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025. FAO, Rome, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>WHO and UNICEF (eds.), Progress on Household Drinking Water, Sanitation and Hygiene 2000\u20132022. Joint Monitoring Programme, New York and Geneva, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>World Health Organization (ed.), \u201cAmbient (outdoor) air pollution\u201d and \u201c<a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h29\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 poll.air-quality.household-air-pollution\" data-tk=\"Pollution and hazardous substances \u00b7 Air pollution episodes\" data-td=\"Smoke and gases from cooking, heating and lighting with solid fuels or kerosene that accumulate indoors.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H29\" data-tr=\"draft\">Household air pollution<\/a>\u201d fact sheets. WHO, Geneva, retrieved 2026-09-30.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>WWF (ed.), Living Planet Report 2024: A System in Peril. WWF, Gland, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281\/zenodo.13850054. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5281\/zenodo.13850054\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.5281\/zenodo.13850054<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>International Energy Agency (ed.), Energy and AI. World Energy Outlook Special Report. IEA, Paris, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-n36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-r36\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 36\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-n35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>WMO and UNDRR (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Early Warning<\/a> <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> 2024. WMO and UNDRR, Geneva, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-r35\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 35\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-n44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>International Labour Organization (ed.), World Social Protection Report 2024\u201326: Universal Social Protection for Climate Action and a Just Transition. ILO, Geneva, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-r44\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 44\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-n42\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">42<\/span><span>UNEP (ed.), Adaptation Gap Report 2024: Come Hell and High Water. UNEP, Nairobi, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c1-r42\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 42\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-part-findings\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-01\/\">Global Polycrisis 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 2<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Key findings<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Twelve findings carry the global baseline. They are grouped by system and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>3 min read<\/span><span>1 figure<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>14 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span>.<\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.1<\/span><span>Headline finding<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-003\">NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-003<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Insurers covered about 48% of the US$224 billion in natural-disaster losses in 2025, about 70% in North America, about half in Europe, about 12% in Asia and under a fifth in Africa.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 2.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-fig1-t\">Natural-disaster losses in 2025 (US$ billion)<\/span><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">Insured<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"93.1\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">108<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Uninsured<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">116<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: Munich Re NatCatSERVICE 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>; the uninsured share is the difference between overall and insured losses.<\/p><\/figure><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Implication<\/h3><p class=\"nrp-p\">The <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 protection-gap\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The difference between total economic losses from hazards and the share covered by insurance or other pre-arranged protection, leaving households, firms and governments to absorb the rest.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">protection gap<\/a> is widest where exposure is growing fastest and fiscal space is thinnest. Uninsured losses become household debt, delayed reconstruction and pressure on public budgets, which feed back into vulnerability before the next event<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">What would move it<\/h3><p class=\"nrp-p\">Regional loss splits by peril (agenda item P-02), the growth of sovereign and parametric cover, and the 2026 and 2027 loss years would each move this finding.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.2<\/span><span>Climate forcing<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001\">NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Global temperature was 1.43 \u00b1 0.13 \u00b0C above 1850\u20131900 in 2025, after a record 1.55 \u00b0C in 2024; 2015\u20132025 are the eleven warmest years.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-010\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-010\">NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-010<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Six of nine planetary boundaries were assessed as transgressed in 2023, and five major tipping <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> are at risk at current warming.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.3<\/span><span>Finance<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-002\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-002\">NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-002<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Natural disasters caused US$224 billion in losses in 2025, of which US$108 billion (48%) was insured.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-003\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-003\">NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-003<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Insured shares differ sharply by region: about 70% in North America, about half in Europe, about 12% in Asia and under a fifth in Africa (2025).<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-011\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-011\">NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-011<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Public debt reached US$102 trillion in 2024; 3.4 billion people live in countries that spend more on interest than on health or education.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.4<\/span><span>Energy<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004\">NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Energy-related CO\u2082 emissions reached a record 37.8 Gt in 2024; total greenhouse-gas emissions were 57.1 Gt CO\u2082e in 2023.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-005\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-005\">NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-005<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Data centres used about 415 TWh of electricity in 2024, about 1.5% of the world total, with use projected to roughly double by 2030.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.5<\/span><span>Food<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-006\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-006\">NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-006<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">About 673 million people faced hunger in 2024, and 2.3 billion were moderately or severely food insecure.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.6<\/span><span>Water<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-WAT-007\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-WAT-007\">NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-WAT-007<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">2.2 billion people lacked safely managed drinking water and 3.5 billion lacked safely managed sanitation in 2022.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.7<\/span><span>Health<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-008\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-008\">NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-008<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Ambient and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h29\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 poll.air-quality.household-air-pollution\" data-tk=\"Pollution and hazardous substances \u00b7 Air pollution episodes\" data-td=\"Smoke and gases from cooking, heating and lighting with solid fuels or kerosene that accumulate indoors.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H29\" data-tr=\"draft\">household air pollution<\/a> together cause about 6.7 million deaths a year.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.8<\/span><span>Biodiversity<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-BIO-009\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-BIO-009\">NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-BIO-009<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Monitored wildlife populations declined by 73% on average between 1970 and 2020; 17.6% of land and 8.4% of the ocean are protected.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-s9\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-s9-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-s9-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.9<\/span><span>Systemic<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012\">NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a concurrent breadbasket shortfall coinciding with an energy and fertiliser price shock. \u00a7 scenario.<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-01\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a>.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2025: It Is Time for Reform. UNCTAD, Geneva, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-reduction\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Preventing new risk, reducing existing risk and managing residual risk, all contributing to resilience.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Risk Reduction<\/a> 2025: Resilience Pays. UNDRR, Geneva, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, WMO-No. 1391. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, March 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>K. Richardson, W. Steffen, W. Lucht et al., \u201cEarth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries,\u201d Science Advances, vol. 9, eadh2458, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>T. M. Lenton, D. I. Armstrong McKay, S. Loriani et al. (eds.), The Global Tipping Points Report 2023. University of Exeter, Exeter, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air \u2026 please! UNEP, Nairobi, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>International Energy Agency (ed.), Energy and AI. World Energy Outlook Special Report. IEA, Paris, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025. FAO, Rome, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>WHO and UNICEF (eds.), Progress on Household Drinking Water, Sanitation and Hygiene 2000\u20132022. Joint Monitoring Programme, New York and Geneva, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>World Health Organization (ed.), \u201cAmbient (outdoor) air pollution\u201d and \u201c<a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h29\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 poll.air-quality.household-air-pollution\" data-tk=\"Pollution and hazardous substances \u00b7 Air pollution episodes\" data-td=\"Smoke and gases from cooking, heating and lighting with solid fuels or kerosene that accumulate indoors.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H29\" data-tr=\"draft\">Household air pollution<\/a>\u201d fact sheets. WHO, Geneva, retrieved 2026-09-30.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>WWF (ed.), Living Planet Report 2024: A System in Peril. WWF, Gland, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>UNEP-WCMC and IUCN (eds.), Protected Planet Report 2024. UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, Cambridge and Gland, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c2-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-part-systems-and-sectors\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-01\/\">Global Polycrisis 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 3<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Systems and sectors at baseline<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>5 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>2 tables<\/span><span>16 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span>.<\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.1<\/span><span>Where each system stood at evidence close<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WAT \u00b7 Water<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">People without safely managed drinking water<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">2.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">billion<\/span><p>3.5 billion lacked safely managed sanitation in the same year.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2022<\/span><span>WHO\/UNICEF JMP<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">ENE \u00b7 Energy<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Energy-related CO\u2082 emissions<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">37.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Gt CO\u2082<\/span><p>A record high, up 0.8% on 2023, as demand grew faster than clean supply.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2024<\/span><span>IEA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">FOO \u00b7 Food<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">People facing hunger<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">673<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>About 8.2% of the world population; 2.3 billion were moderately or severely food insecure.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2024<\/span><span>SOFI 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">HLT \u00b7 Health<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Deaths each year from ambient and household air pollution<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">6.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>Air pollution couples energy, cities and health more directly than any other pathway.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2019\u20132020<\/span><span>WHO<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">BIO \u00b7 Biodiversity<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Average decline of monitored wildlife populations<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u221273<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>1970\u20132020. 17.6% of land and 8.4% of the ocean are protected, against 30% by 2030.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>1970\u20132020<\/span><span>WWF<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup> \u00b7<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">SYS \u00b7 Cross-system<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Natural-disaster losses \u00b7 insured<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">224 \u00b7 108<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">US$ bn<\/span><p>The sixth year above US$100 billion insured; floods, storms and fires dominated.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2025<\/span><span>Munich Re<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.2<\/span><span>Domain posture<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The reading states where the global evidence points; the coupling column names the dependency that carries risk across <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> and borders.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 3.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Each domain read in words, not scored<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Domain<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Posture at baseline<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coupling<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">WAT<\/span><\/td><td>2.2 billion people without safely managed drinking water; basin stress concentrated in arid and fast-growing regions.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">WAT \u2192 FOO irrigation \u00b7 WAT \u2192 ENE cooling<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE<\/span><\/td><td>Record energy CO\u2082 in 2024; clean power at about 41% of electricity; demand rising with cooling and compute.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE \u2194 WAT \u00b7 ENE \u2192 FOO inputs<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FOO<\/span><\/td><td>673 million people facing hunger; production concentrated in a few breadbaskets and exporters.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FOO \u2190 WAT, ENE \u00b7 FOO \u2192 TRD<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HLT<\/span><\/td><td>Air pollution and heat are the leading environmental health burdens; <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 one-health\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"An integrated approach that recognises the health of people, animals, plants and ecosystems as interdependent and manages risks across them together.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">One Health<\/a> risks persist.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HLT \u2190 CLI, ENE, BIO<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">BIO<\/span><\/td><td>Wildlife populations down 73% since 1970; protection below 30% targets on land and sea.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">BIO \u2192 WAT, FOO \u00b7 BIO \u2190 land use<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CLI<\/span><\/td><td>1.43 \u00b0C in 2025 after a record 1.55 \u00b0C; energy imbalance at a record high.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">forcing on all five systems<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INF<\/span><\/td><td>Chokepoints in shipping, power and data networks concentrate exposure.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INF \u2192 TRD, ENE, FOO<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIN<\/span><\/td><td>Insured losses above US$100 billion for six years; about half of losses uninsured; debt constrains response.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIN \u2190 CLI \u00b7 FIN \u2192 sovereigns<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DAT<\/span><\/td><td>Cloud, cable and satellite dependencies are concentrated and only partly mapped.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DAT \u2192 ENE, FIN, HLT<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">AIC<\/span><\/td><td>Data centres used about 415 TWh in 2024; use projected to roughly double by 2030.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">AIC \u2192 ENE, WAT, MIN<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MIN<\/span><\/td><td>Refining of key energy minerals concentrated: the top three refiners average about 86%.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MIN \u2192 ENE transition, AIC<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">TRD<\/span><\/td><td>Trade fragmentation and export restrictions raise transmission risk for food and minerals.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">TRD \u2192 all systems<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.3<\/span><span>Sector screens<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">All sixteen global sectors are screened on the same grammar as every national edition, so later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 3.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Code<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Sector<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Exposure to watch<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence coverage<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-00<\/span><\/td><td>Cross-system<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h120\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 sys.fragility.polycrisis\" data-tk=\"Systemic and compound events \u00b7 Structural fragility of interconnected systems\" data-td=\"Several global crises, such as conflict, climate, debt, disease and energy, interacting so that each worsens the others and the joint harm exceeds their sum.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H120\" data-tr=\"draft\">entangled crises<\/a>; six of nine boundaries transgressed<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>compound and cascading shocks<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-01<\/span><\/td><td>Water<\/td><td>2.2 billion without safely managed water<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>drought and flood extremes<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-02<\/span><\/td><td>Energy<\/td><td>record CO\u2082; about 41% clean power<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>heat demand; mineral concentration<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-03<\/span><\/td><td>Food and agrifood<\/td><td>673 million facing hunger<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>concurrent breadbasket failure<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-04<\/span><\/td><td>Health<\/td><td>6.7 million air-pollution deaths a year<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>heat, pandemics, <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/health\/biological-hazard-standards\/\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 health.systemic-bio.antimicrobial-resistance\" data-tk=\"Health and biosecurity \u00b7 Systemic biological risks\" data-td=\"Spread of microbes that no longer respond to medicines, making routine infections and surgery dangerous.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H45\" data-tr=\"draft\">antimicrobial resistance<\/a><\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-05<\/span><\/td><td>Finance and economy<\/td><td>US$102 trillion public debt<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>debt distress after disasters<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-06<\/span><\/td><td>Development<\/td><td>123.2 million forcibly displaced<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>conflict\u2013climate compounding<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-07<\/span><\/td><td>Climate<\/td><td>1.43 \u00b0C in 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>extremes and tipping risk<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-08<\/span><\/td><td>Disaster<\/td><td>US$224 billion losses in 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>frequency of medium events<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-09<\/span><\/td><td>Infrastructure<\/td><td>chokepoint concentration<\/td><td>shipping, power and cable outages<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-10<\/span><\/td><td>Cities<\/td><td>most people now live in cities<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>urban heat and flooding<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-11<\/span><\/td><td>Biodiversity<\/td><td>\u221273% wildlife populations<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>land-use change and fire<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-12<\/span><\/td><td>Earth observation<\/td><td>strong global observing <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><\/td><td>continuity of key missions<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-13<\/span><\/td><td>Cyber and digital<\/td><td>concentrated cloud and network dependence<\/td><td>systemic outages<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-14<\/span><\/td><td>Policy and institutions<\/td><td>new pandemic and ocean agreements<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-n32\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-r32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>implementation and finance gaps<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-15<\/span><\/td><td>Science and engineering<\/td><td>deep research base; AI adoption rising<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-n37\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-r37\" aria-label=\"Note 37\">37<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>translation and dual use<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-01\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a>.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>WHO and UNICEF (eds.), Progress on Household Drinking Water, Sanitation and Hygiene 2000\u20132022. Joint Monitoring Programme, New York and Geneva, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025. FAO, Rome, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>World Health Organization (ed.), \u201cAmbient (outdoor) air pollution\u201d and \u201c<a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h29\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 poll.air-quality.household-air-pollution\" data-tk=\"Pollution and hazardous substances \u00b7 Air pollution episodes\" data-td=\"Smoke and gases from cooking, heating and lighting with solid fuels or kerosene that accumulate indoors.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H29\" data-tr=\"draft\">Household air pollution<\/a>\u201d fact sheets. WHO, Geneva, retrieved 2026-09-30.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>WWF (ed.), Living Planet Report 2024: A System in Peril. WWF, Gland, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>UNEP-WCMC and IUCN (eds.), Protected Planet Report 2024. UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, Cambridge and Gland, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>K. Richardson, W. Steffen, W. Lucht et al., \u201cEarth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries,\u201d Science Advances, vol. 9, eadh2458, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2025. Ember, London, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2025: It Is Time for Reform. UNCTAD, Geneva, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>UNHCR (ed.), Global Trends: <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h57\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 soc.humanitarian.mass-displacement\" data-tk=\"Society, conflict and economy \u00b7 Humanitarian crises\" data-td=\"Large numbers of people forced to leave their homes by conflict, disaster or collapse, straining host areas and services.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H57\" data-tr=\"draft\">Forced Displacement<\/a> in 2024. UNHCR, Copenhagen, June 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, WMO-No. 1391. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, March 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results. United Nations, New York, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>World Health Assembly (ed.), WHO Pandemic Agreement, resolution WHA78.1. WHO, Geneva, May 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-n32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>United Nations (ed.), Agreement under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea on the Conservation and Sustainable Use of Marine Biological Diversity of Areas beyond National Jurisdiction. United Nations, New York, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-r32\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 32\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-n37\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">37<\/span><span>Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (ed.), Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2025. Stanford HAI, Stanford, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c3-r37\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 37\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-part-risk-and-capability\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-01\/\">Global Polycrisis 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 4<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Risks and capability<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Four global risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence; loss metrics are added only where they can be modelled.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>3 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>1 table<\/span><span>15 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span>.<\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">4.1<\/span><span>Risk objects<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-SR01-FOO-001<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Concurrent breadbasket shortfall<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>heat and drought in several producing regions in one season<\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>import-dependent countries; low-income households<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>concentrated exports; thin stocks; price-sensitive diets<\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>trade openness; reserves; <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 social-protection\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Public policies and programmes that help people manage risk and reduce poverty and vulnerability across their lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">social protection<\/a><\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>CLI \u2192 FOO \u2192 TRD \u2192 HLT<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>seasonal \u00b7 1 and 5 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-SR01-FIN-002<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Uninsured losses where cover is thin<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>rising frequency of floods, storms and fires<\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>Asia, Africa, small island states<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>low insurance; limited fiscal space<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>sovereign and parametric cover; development finance<\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>CLI \u2192 FIN \u2192 households, sovereigns<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>annual<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-SR01-MIN-003<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Concentration in critical-mineral refining<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>rising demand for transition and compute minerals<\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>battery, grid and chip supply chains<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>top three refiners average about 86%<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-n36\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-r36\" aria-label=\"Note 36\">36<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>stockpiles; recycling; diversification<\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>MIN \u2192 ENE, AIC \u2192 FIN<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1\u20135 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-SR01-CLI-004<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Crossing of Earth-system tipping points<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>continued warming above 1.5 \u00b0C<\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>coasts, coral reefs, monsoon and polar <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>irreversibility once thresholds are crossed<\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>emission cuts; monitoring; adaptation<\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>CLI \u2192 BIO, WAT \u2192 all<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>10 years and beyond<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">4.2<\/span><span>Capability ladder<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at the global level, from a policy listing to performance in real events.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 4.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: <code>listed<\/code>, <code>exists<\/code>, <code>demonstrated<\/code>, <code>tested<\/code><\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Function<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Rung<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Level<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Strongest public evidence at baseline<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Prevention and mitigation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>Paris and Sendai frameworks; emissions still rising<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-n29\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-r29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-n31\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-r31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Monitoring and observation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>DEMONSTRATED<\/td><td>global observing <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> underpin WMO and C3S records<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-n39\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-r39\" aria-label=\"Note 39\">39<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Early warning<\/a><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>108 countries reported multi-hazard early-warning systems in 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-n35\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-r35\" aria-label=\"Note 35\">35<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Preparedness and planning<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>national adaptation plans uneven; adaptation finance gap of US$187\u2013359 billion a year<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-n42\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-r42\" aria-label=\"Note 42\">42<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Redundancy and reserves<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>no coordinated global food or mineral reserve<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Response<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>DEMONSTRATED<\/td><td>international humanitarian response in real events; chronically underfunded<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Continuity of critical services<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>sector-level plans; limited cross-border testing<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Recovery<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>development finance and debt relief instruments<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Adaptation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>plans widespread; finance below need<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-n42\" aria-label=\"Note 42\">42<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 social-protection\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Public policies and programmes that help people manage risk and reduce poverty and vulnerability across their lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Social protection<\/a><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>52.4% of people covered by at least one benefit<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-n44\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-r44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Finance and insurance<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>deep markets in some regions; about half of losses uninsured<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Institutional coordination<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>new pandemic agreement and IHR amendments<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Technical infrastructure<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>global networks concentrated in few chokepoints<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Workforce<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>health and emergency workforce shortages widely reported<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Research capacity<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>ADEQUATE<\/td><td>IPCC and IPBES assessments; translation uneven<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"4\">A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-01\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a>.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2025: It Is Time for Reform. UNCTAD, Geneva, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-n36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-r36\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 36\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air \u2026 please! UNEP, Nairobi, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-n29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>UNFCCC (ed.), <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/climate\/paris-agreement-and-ndc-alignment\/\">Paris Agreement<\/a>. United Nations, Paris, 2015.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-r29\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 29\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-n31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>UNDRR (ed.), <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/sendai-framework-alignment\/\">Sendai Framework<\/a> for Disaster <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-reduction\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Preventing new risk, reducing existing risk and managing residual risk, all contributing to resilience.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Risk Reduction<\/a> 2015\u20132030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-r31\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 31\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, WMO-No. 1391. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, March 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-n39\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">39<\/span><span>Copernicus <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Service (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2024. ECMWF, Reading, January 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-r39\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 39\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-n35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>WMO and UNDRR (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Early Warning<\/a> <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> 2024. WMO and UNDRR, Geneva, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-r35\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 35\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-n42\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">42<\/span><span>UNEP (ed.), Adaptation Gap Report 2024: Come Hell and High Water. UNEP, Nairobi, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-r42\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 42\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-n44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>International Labour Organization (ed.), World Social Protection Report 2024\u201326: Universal Social Protection for Climate Action and a Just Transition. ILO, Geneva, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-r44\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 44\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>World Health Assembly (ed.), WHO Pandemic Agreement, resolution WHA78.1. WHO, Geneva, May 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>World Health Assembly (ed.), Amendments to the <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/health\/international-health-regulations-alignment\/\">International Health Regulations<\/a> (2005), resolution WHA77.17. WHO, Geneva, June 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281\/zenodo.13850054. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5281\/zenodo.13850054\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.5281\/zenodo.13850054<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c4-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-part-scenario\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c5-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-01\/\">Global Polycrisis 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 5<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Concurrent breadbasket shortfall and energy price shock<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>2 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>1 note<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span>.<\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c5-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c5-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c5-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.1<\/span><span>Assumptions<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Scenario SCN-SR01-BBF-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Baseline<\/dt><dd>the 2026 reference state in this edition<\/dd><dt>Drivers<\/dt><dd>heat and drought across two or more major grain-exporting regions in one season, while gas and fertiliser prices spike<\/dd><dt>Analogues<\/dt><dd>2007\u20132008 and 2010\u20132011 food price spikes; 2022 energy and fertiliser shock<\/dd><dt>Interventions<\/dt><dd>none modelled, the specification describes the unmitigated case<\/dd><dt>Run state<\/dt><dd>narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c5-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c5-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c5-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c5-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c5-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.2<\/span><span>The cascade, step by step<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">1<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 FOO<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">heat and drought cut yields in several exporters at once.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2010 \u00b7 2012<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">2<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">ENE \u2192 FOO<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">fertiliser and fuel costs raise production costs<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2022<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">3<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">FOO \u2192 TRD<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">export restrictions amplify the price rise<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2008 \u00b7 2011<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">4<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">TRD \u2192 HLT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">food-price rises cut diets in import-dependent households<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2008<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">5<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">FIN \u2192 sovereigns<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">import bills and subsidies widen deficits<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2022<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">6<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">HLT \u2192 development<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">hunger and displacement rise in fragile settings<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2011<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c5-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c5-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c5-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.3<\/span><span>The scenario as a table of steps<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nx-p\">How the shock in scenario SCN-SR01-BBF-01 would travel through Global <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h120\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 sys.fragility.polycrisis\" data-tk=\"Systemic and compound events \u00b7 Structural fragility of interconnected systems\" data-td=\"Several global crises, such as conflict, climate, debt, disease and energy, interacting so that each worsens the others and the joint harm exceeds their sum.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H120\" data-tr=\"draft\">Polycrisis<\/a>&#8216;s coupled <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">01 Climate to food<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Heat and drought cut yields in several exporters at once. Analogue or source: 2010 \u00b7 2012.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition SR-01, scenario SCN-SR01-BBF-01, step 1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">02 Energy to food<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Fertiliser and fuel costs raise production costs. Analogue or source: 2022.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition SR-01, scenario SCN-SR01-BBF-01, step 2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">03 Food to trade<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Export restrictions amplify the price rise. Analogue or source: 2008 \u00b7 2011.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition SR-01, scenario SCN-SR01-BBF-01, step 3<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">04 Trade to health<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Food-price rises cut diets in import-dependent households. Analogue or source: 2008.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition SR-01, scenario SCN-SR01-BBF-01, step 4<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">05 Finance to sovereigns<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Import bills and subsidies widen deficits. Analogue or source: 2022.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition SR-01, scenario SCN-SR01-BBF-01, step 5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">06 Health to development<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Hunger and displacement rise in fragile settings. Analogue or source: 2011.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition SR-01, scenario SCN-SR01-BBF-01, step 6<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-2\">A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition&#8217;s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-01\/scenario\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Global Polycrisis 2026, scenario SCN-SR01-BBF-01<\/a> (2026); Global Polycrisis 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c5-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c5-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c5-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-01\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a>.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c5-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>F. Gaupp, J. Hall, S. Hochrainer-Stigler and S. Dadson, \u201cChanging risks of simultaneous global breadbasket failure,\u201d Nature <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a>, vol. 10, pp. 54\u201357, 2020.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c5-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-part-lenses-and-readings\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-01\/\">Global Polycrisis 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 6<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Lenses and readings<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The global baseline is read through each steward\u2019s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>10 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>6 tables<\/span><span>37 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span>.<\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.1<\/span><span>Three lenses<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-cards\" data-n=\"3\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GCRI \u00b7 KEY T<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Technical Truth<\/h3><p>The evidence supports an entangled reading of global risk. Warming and losses set records in the same years; frequency, not one peak event, drives losses; and the five core systems share dependence on water, energy and land. Evidence is strongest for climate and losses, and weakest for digital dependencies and tipping proximity.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">CLI-001 \u00b7 FIN-002 \u00b7 CLI-010 \u00b7 SYS-012<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GRF \u00b7 KEY M<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Public Meaning<\/h3><p>For most people global risk arrives as a price rise, a heat wave or a flood, and its burden depends on where they live. The baseline asks that public debate weigh the couplings and the distribution of losses, not a list of separate threats.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">FIN-003 \u00b7 FOO-006 \u00b7 HLT-008<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GRA \u00b7 KEY F<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Capital Meaning<\/h3><p>Readiness implications only. About half of disaster losses are uninsured, debt service crowds out adaptation, and climate disclosure standards are spreading<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n33\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup>. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">FIN-002 \u00b7 FIN-003 \u00b7 FIN-011<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEXUS<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Synthesis<\/h3><p>The world\u2019s crises share causes and channels. The 2027 programme should test the mechanisms rather than list the crises: bind the common causes, trace the dominoes through fiscal and food channels, and measure the feedbacks that make recovery slower than the next shock.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">SYS-012 \u00b7 P-01 \u00b7 P-02<\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.2<\/span><span>Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">International instruments that shape the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one\u2019s compliance.<\/p><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">IN FORCE<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">ADOPTED<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">ADOPTED \u00b7 OPEN FOR SIGNATURE<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">PUBLISHED \u00b7 VOLUNTARY<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Standards and regulatory watch<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instrument<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Body<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Scope<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Relevance<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/climate\/paris-agreement-and-ndc-alignment\/\">Paris Agreement<\/a><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n29\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UNFCCC<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td><code>emissions<\/code>, <code>adaptation<\/code><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Kunming-Montreal Framework<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n30\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CBD<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>ADOPTED 2022<\/td><td>30% by 2030<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/sendai-framework-alignment\/\">Sendai Framework<\/a> 2015\u20132030<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n31\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UNDRR<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>ADOPTED 2015<\/td><td>disaster <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-reduction\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Preventing new risk, reducing existing risk and managing residual risk, all contributing to resilience.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">risk reduction<\/a><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>High Seas (BBNJ) Agreement<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n32\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>United Nations<\/td><td>ocean beyond national jurisdiction<\/td><td>ADOPTED 2023<\/td><td>marine biodiversity<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/health\/international-health-regulations-alignment\/\">International Health Regulations<\/a>, 2024 amendments<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>WHO<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>ADOPTED 2024<\/td><td>pandemic preparedness<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WHO Pandemic Agreement<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>WHO<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>ADOPTED \u00b7 OPEN FOR SIGNATURE<\/td><td><code>prevention<\/code>, <code>access<\/code><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IFRS S1 and S2<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>ISSB<\/td><td>jurisdictions adopting<\/td><td>PUBLISHED \u00b7 VOLUNTARY<\/td><td>climate disclosure<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Regulation (EU) 2024\/1689<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n34\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r34\" aria-label=\"Note 34\">34<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>EU<\/td><td>European Union<\/td><td>IN FORCE \u00b7 PHASED<\/td><td>AI governance<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Changed since 2024<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>The World Health Assembly adopted the Pandemic Agreement in May 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Amendments to the International Health Regulations were adopted in 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Jurisdictions began adopting the ISSB climate disclosure standard<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">To watch in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Updated nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Implementation of the High Seas Agreement<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>National biodiversity strategies against the 2030 targets<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Status is read from the issuing body on the retrieval date. Instruments open for signature or awaiting ratification are labelled as such; a change in status opens a review task for every finding that relies on the instrument.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.3<\/span><span>GCRI reading: the model card<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-p\">GCRI&#8217;s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. <a href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-01\/methodology\/\">Annex A, methodology<\/a>.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.4<\/span><span>Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Four signed essays by the <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/programme\/reports\">Reports<\/a> editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">In 2025 no major hurricane reached the United States mainland, and insured losses still passed US$100 billion for the sixth year running. Floods, hail, storms and wildfires, individually \u201cmedium\u201d, now add up to totals that once required a single great catastrophe. Global resilience has to be measured against many events in close succession, not one event of record size.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 01<\/h3><p>Medium events are the new catastrophe<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">About half of 2025\u2019s disaster losses were uninsured, and almost nine-tenths in Asia. Where cover is thin, a flood becomes household debt and a fiscal shock, and recovery competes with interest payments. Closing the gap is less a question of insurance products than of fiscal space, data and risk reduction.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 02<\/h3><p>The protection gap is a development gap<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Data centres used about 415 TWh of electricity in 2024, and refining of the minerals behind batteries and chips is concentrated in very few places. The digital transition is also an energy, water and minerals transition, and its risks sit in substations, cooling towers and refineries as much as in software.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 03<\/h3><p>Frontier technology is physical<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">A small number of regions grow most of the world\u2019s traded grain. A season in which several of them fail together, more likely as the world warms, would travel through prices to every import-dependent household. The world tracks harvests one country at a time; the risk lives in their concurrence.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 04<\/h3><p>Breadbaskets are a shared exposure<\/p><\/article><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Essays are signed views of the editorial team. Contributed articles from regional consortia, national pathways and invited experts begin with the 2027 <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h120\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 sys.fragility.polycrisis\" data-tk=\"Systemic and compound events \u00b7 Structural fragility of interconnected systems\" data-td=\"Several global crises, such as conflict, climate, debt, disease and energy, interacting so that each worsens the others and the joint harm exceeds their sum.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H120\" data-tr=\"draft\">polycrisis<\/a> edition, each with its own review route and disclosures.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.5<\/span><span>Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 polycrisis readiness pack<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">2027 polycrisis readiness pack<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Register<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State at baseline<\/th><th scope=\"col\">First 2027 entry<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>E1<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 global-risk\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Nexus risk class: a risk whose hazard, consequences or causal chain crosses national borders and acts at continental or planetary scale, so that no single country can assess or manage it alone.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Global risk<\/a> state delta<\/td><td>baseline set by this edition<\/td><td>changes against the baseline<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E2<\/td><td>WEFH+B state delta<\/td><td>five global system readings set<\/td><td>indicator updates and freshness<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E3<\/td><td>Agenda and Portfolio movement<\/td><td>eight agenda items \u00b7 seven proposed objects<\/td><td>admission decisions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E4<\/td><td>Federation delivery register<\/td><td>Canada issued; 85 editions in programme<\/td><td>regional and sector baselines<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E5<\/td><td>Consortium capability register<\/td><td>national consortia forming<\/td><td>first contributions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E6<\/td><td>Leadership questions and challenges<\/td><td>none yet<\/td><td>first challenge log<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E7<\/td><td>Foundry technical state<\/td><td>national environments prepared<\/td><td>first federation cut<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E8<\/td><td>Publication candidates<\/td><td>twelve findings carried forward<\/td><td>PUBLISH \u00b7 HOLD dispositions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E9<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/programme\/universe\">Universe<\/a> readiness<\/td><td>one candidate mission<\/td><td>admission and role spine<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E10<\/td><td>Correction register<\/td><td>none<\/td><td>first federation-wide cycle<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication dispositions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Publish<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Hold<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Needs evidence<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Restricted<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Superseded<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Programme progress is not real-world risk improvement. These registers record the work of the Nexus programme; they report on no state or organisation.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.6<\/span><span>Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The review behind this edition covers global assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Review protocol<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Question<\/dt><dd>What does the published evidence establish about the world\u2019s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks?<\/dd><dt>Sources searched<\/dt><dd>global assessments; UN and multilateral statistics; peer-reviewed literature; industry loss data<\/dd><dt>Window<\/dt><dd>releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Selection<\/dt><dd>sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition<\/dd><dt>Next step<\/dt><dd>systematic reviews for agenda items P-01 to P-06 in 2027<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Assessments and peer-reviewed science<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Type<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Lee and Romero (eds.)<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>assessment<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>forcing and risk<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>McElwee et al. (eds.)<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>assessment<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>nexus interlinkages<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>O\u2019Brien et al. (eds.)<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>assessment<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>transformative change<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Richardson et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>planetary boundaries<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rockstr\u00f6m et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n47\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r47\" aria-label=\"Note 47\">47<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>safe and just boundaries<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Lenton et al. (eds.)<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>report<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>tipping <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Zscheischler et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2018<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>compound events<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Gaupp et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2020<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>breadbasket risk<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Lawrence et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h120\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 sys.fragility.polycrisis\" data-tk=\"Systemic and compound events \u00b7 Structural fragility of interconnected systems\" data-td=\"Several global crises, such as conflict, climate, debt, disease and energy, interacting so that each worsens the others and the joint harm exceeds their sum.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H120\" data-tr=\"draft\">polycrisis<\/a> mechanisms<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Romanello et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n26\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>heat and health<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Institutional flagships<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>State of the Global Climate<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n41\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r41\" aria-label=\"Note 41\">41<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>WMO<\/td><td>2025\u201326<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>temperature, ocean heat<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>GAR 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UNDRR<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>disaster risk<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Emissions and Adaptation Gap<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n42\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r42\" aria-label=\"Note 42\">42<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UNEP<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>emissions, finance gap<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Energy Review<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IEA<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>energy emissions<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">UN and multilateral statistics<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>SOFI 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>FAO and partners<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>hunger<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>JMP 2023<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>WHO \u00b7 UNICEF<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>water and sanitation<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>World Population Prospects<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN DESA<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>population<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Trends<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UNHCR<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>displacement<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A World of Debt<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UNCTAD<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>debt service<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Air-quality fact sheets<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>WHO<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>air-pollution deaths<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>World <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 social-protection\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Public policies and programmes that help people manage risk and reduce poverty and vulnerability across their lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Social Protection<\/a> Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n44\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>ILO<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>social protection<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Industry, energy and nature data<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>NatCatSERVICE 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Munich Re<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>losses<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Electricity Review<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Ember<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>clean power share<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Energy and AI<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IEA<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>data-centre demand<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Critical Minerals Outlook<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n36\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r36\" aria-label=\"Note 36\">36<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IEA<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>refining concentration<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Living Planet Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>WWF<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>wildlife trends<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Protected Planet<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UNEP-WCMC \u00b7 IUCN<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>protected areas<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Where the evidence agrees<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>The world is warming at a historic rate, with record ocean heat<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Losses are rising in trend and driven by frequency across perils<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>The five core systems are tightly interlinked<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Where it is unsettled<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>How close individual tipping systems are to their thresholds<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>How often concurrent breadbasket failures will occur at each warming level<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>How fast AI-driven electricity demand will grow<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEWS AND PREPRINTS<\/p><p>No news report or preprint binds a finding in this edition. News is used only to date events; preprints used from 2027 will be flagged as not peer-reviewed.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-01\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a>.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>International Sustainability Standards Board (ed.), IFRS S1 General Requirements and IFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures. IFRS Foundation, London, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r33\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 33\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>UNFCCC (ed.), <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/climate\/paris-agreement-and-ndc-alignment\/\">Paris Agreement<\/a>. United Nations, Paris, 2015.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r29\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 29\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15\/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r30\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 30\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>UNDRR (ed.), <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/sendai-framework-alignment\/\">Sendai Framework<\/a> for Disaster <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-reduction\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Preventing new risk, reducing existing risk and managing residual risk, all contributing to resilience.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Risk Reduction<\/a> 2015\u20132030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r31\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 31\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>United Nations (ed.), Agreement under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea on the Conservation and Sustainable Use of Marine Biological Diversity of Areas beyond National Jurisdiction. United Nations, New York, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r32\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 32\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>World Health Assembly (ed.), Amendments to the <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/health\/international-health-regulations-alignment\/\">International Health Regulations<\/a> (2005), resolution WHA77.17. WHO, Geneva, June 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>World Health Assembly (ed.), WHO Pandemic Agreement, resolution WHA78.1. WHO, Geneva, May 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council of the European Union (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024\/1689 (Artificial Intelligence Act). Official Journal L, 12 July 2024, as amended.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r34\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 34\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281\/zenodo.13850054. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5281\/zenodo.13850054\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.5281\/zenodo.13850054<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>K. O\u2019Brien, L. Garibaldi and A. Agrawal (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Underlying Causes of <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h27\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.species.biodiversity-loss\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Biodiversity and species stress\" data-td=\"Decline in the variety and abundance of species and habitats that weakens services such as pollination, fisheries and soil formation.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H27\" data-tr=\"draft\">Biodiversity Loss<\/a> and the Determinants of Transformative Change. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>K. Richardson, W. Steffen, W. Lucht et al., \u201cEarth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries,\u201d Science Advances, vol. 9, eadh2458, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n47\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">47<\/span><span>J. Rockstr\u00f6m, J. Gupta, D. Qin et al., \u201cSafe and just <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 earth-system\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The integrated set of physical, chemical, biological and human processes that regulate the state of the planet, studied as one coupled system.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Earth system<\/a> boundaries,\u201d Nature, vol. 619, pp. 102\u2013111, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r47\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 47\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>T. M. Lenton, D. I. Armstrong McKay, S. Loriani et al. (eds.), The Global Tipping Points Report 2023. University of Exeter, Exeter, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., \u201cFuture climate risk from compound events,\u201d Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469\u2013477, 2018.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>F. Gaupp, J. Hall, S. Hochrainer-Stigler and S. Dadson, \u201cChanging risks of simultaneous global breadbasket failure,\u201d Nature Climate Change, vol. 10, pp. 54\u201357, 2020.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>M. Lawrence, T. Homer-Dixon, S. Janzwood, J. Rockstr\u00f6m, O. Renn and J. F. Donges, \u201cGlobal polycrisis: the causal mechanisms of crisis entanglement,\u201d Global Sustainability, vol. 7, e6, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>M. Romanello et al., \u201cThe 2024 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change,\u201d The Lancet, vol. 404, pp. 1847\u20131896, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r26\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 26\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, WMO-No. 1391. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, March 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2024, WMO-No. 1368. WMO, Geneva, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r41\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 41\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025: Resilience Pays. UNDRR, Geneva, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air \u2026 please! UNEP, Nairobi, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n42\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">42<\/span><span>UNEP (ed.), Adaptation Gap Report 2024: Come Hell and High Water. UNEP, Nairobi, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r42\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 42\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025. FAO, Rome, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>WHO and UNICEF (eds.), Progress on Household Drinking Water, Sanitation and Hygiene 2000\u20132022. Joint Monitoring Programme, New York and Geneva, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results. United Nations, New York, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>UNHCR (ed.), Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2024. UNHCR, Copenhagen, June 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2025: It Is Time for Reform. UNCTAD, Geneva, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>World Health Organization (ed.), \u201cAmbient (outdoor) air pollution\u201d and \u201cHousehold air pollution\u201d fact sheets. WHO, Geneva, retrieved 2026-09-30.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>International Labour Organization (ed.), World Social Protection Report 2024\u201326: Universal Social Protection for Climate Action and a Just Transition. ILO, Geneva, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r44\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 44\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2025. Ember, London, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>International Energy Agency (ed.), Energy and AI. World Energy Outlook Special Report. IEA, Paris, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r36\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 36\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>WWF (ed.), Living Planet Report 2024: A System in Peril. WWF, Gland, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>UNEP-WCMC and IUCN (eds.), Protected Planet Report 2024. UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, Cambridge and Gland, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c6-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-part-agenda\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c7-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-01\/\">Global Polycrisis 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 7<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">The 2027 agenda<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Eight bounded questions open the 2027 polycrisis agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 polycrisis edition.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>5 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>6 tables<\/span><span>3 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span>.<\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c7-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c7-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c7-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.1<\/span><span>Questions for the operational series<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">P-01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How likely is a simultaneous shortfall across major breadbaskets at 1.5\u20132 \u00b0C, and which import-dependent countries are most exposed?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-SR01-FOO-01 \u00b7 breadbasket concurrency; first output: concurrency model and exposure register.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">P-02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Where does the uninsured share of disaster losses land, by region, peril and income group?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-SR01-FIN-02 \u00b7 global protection-gap atlas; first output: region-by-peril loss table, 2015\u20132025.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">P-03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How do AI compute demand, power <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>, water and critical-mineral refining constrain one another?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-SR01-TEC-03 \u00b7 compute\u2013power\u2013minerals nexus; first output: demand and concentration map.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">P-04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Which tipping systems are closest, and which indicators would give <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">early warning<\/a>?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-SR01-CLI-04 \u00b7 tipping indicators register; first output: indicator register with evidence grades.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">P-05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How does debt service constrain adaptation and recovery where hazard is highest?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-SR01-FIN-05 \u00b7 debt\u2013adaptation constraint; first output: exposure\u2013fiscal space matrix.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">P-06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How do heat and water stress couple through health, labour and food in the tropics?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-SR01-HLT-06 \u00b7 heat\u2013water\u2013labour; first output: regional heat\u2013work exposure layer.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">P-07<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Where do early-warning gaps coincide with high hazard and thin insurance?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">To be admitted in 2027; first output: gap overlay with WMO and UNDRR data.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">P-08<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How do conflict, displacement and climate hazards compound in fragile settings?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c7-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c7-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c7-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.2<\/span><span>Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Six initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 global portfolio. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c7-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Objects proposed for the first operational quarter<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">ID<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Object<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Kind<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Question<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-SR01-FOO-01<\/span><\/td><td>Breadbasket concurrency model<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>P-01<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-SR01-FIN-02<\/span><\/td><td>Global protection-gap atlas<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>P-02<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-SR01-TEC-03<\/span><\/td><td>Compute\u2013power\u2013minerals nexus<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>P-03<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-SR01-CLI-04<\/span><\/td><td>Tipping indicators register<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>P-04<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-SR01-FIN-05<\/span><\/td><td>Debt\u2013adaptation constraint<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>P-05<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-SR01-HLT-06<\/span><\/td><td>Heat\u2013water\u2013labour exposure<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>P-06<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MSN-SR01-2027-01<\/span><\/td><td>Breadbasket\u2013energy compound Universe mission<\/td><td>Mission<\/td><td>P-01<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Candidate<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c7-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c7-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c7-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.3<\/span><span>The pathway<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The global edition is the top of the federation. It does not collect its own evidence. It reads national, regional and sector editions through one governed evidence graph, so a correction made anywhere travels everywhere. At baseline the federation is designed and its first edition is issued.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">National Foundries<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">continuous national evidence environments<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">PREPARED \u00b7 first sealed cuts in Q1 2027.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">National Models and Portfolios<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">each country as a system of <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">CANADA v0 ISSUED \u00b7 25 further national baselines.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Quarterly national reports<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">State &amp; Agenda, Evidence, <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 stress-test\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"An assessment of how a system, portfolio or institution would perform under severe but plausible adverse scenarios, to find weaknesses before they are revealed by events.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Stress Test<\/a>, Annual.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">BASELINE STAGE \u00b7 Q1 2027 opens the series.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Regional aggregation<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">ten regional clusters<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">10 PLANNED \u00b7 regional baselines in 2026\u20132027<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Global sector and strategic models<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">GS-01\u202615 \u00b7 SR-01\u202614 \u00b7 XT-01\u202620<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">49 PLANNED \u00b7 pilots: GS-01, SR-01, XT-01<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Universe<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">annual proving environment<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">CANDIDATE MISSION \u00b7 global mandate in 2027<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">07<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Global Report<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">this series<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">BASELINE ISSUED \u00b7 2027 annual edition<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">08<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Evidence and correction<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">one graph, many projections<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">OPEN \u00b7 first federation-wide correction cycle in 2027.<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c7-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c7-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c7-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.4<\/span><span>Universe 2027, evidence pack for the polycrisis candidate mission<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Mandate<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Core Build \u00b7 1 month<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Action \u00b7 1 week<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Evidence seal<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Portfolio correction<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Next mandate<\/p><\/li><\/ol><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c7-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Universe 2027, evidence pack for the polycrisis candidate mission<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Record<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Timing<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>F1<\/td><td>Annual mandate record<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>after the Q2 2027 alignment<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F2<\/td><td>Core Build record<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>one month before the exercise<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F3<\/td><td>Exercise evidence<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>during the Action week<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F4<\/td><td>Decision packets<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>exercise state only<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F5<\/td><td>Proof receipts<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>scoped to each recorded check<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F6<\/td><td>After-action report<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>within one quarter<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F7<\/td><td>Upgrade docket<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>routed to the Portfolio<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F8<\/td><td>Portfolio renewal<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>2027 <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h120\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 sys.fragility.polycrisis\" data-tk=\"Systemic and compound events \u00b7 Structural fragility of interconnected systems\" data-td=\"Several global crises, such as conflict, climate, debt, disease and energy, interacting so that each worsens the others and the joint harm exceeds their sum.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H120\" data-tr=\"draft\">polycrisis<\/a> annual edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F9<\/td><td>Public synthesis<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>public-safe extracts only<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Mission<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>ID<\/dt><dd>MSN-SR01-2027-01 \u00b7 breadbasket\u2013energy compound shock<\/dd><dt>Role spine<\/dt><dd>Leadership sponsor \u00b7 Institutional anchor \u00b7 Mission lead, drawn from national pathways<\/dd><dt>Receiving actors<\/dt><dd>to be identified with the mandate<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Simulation success is not deployment approval; demonstration is not certification; finance readiness is not financing secured.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c7-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c7-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c7-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.5<\/span><span>Handoffs and routing<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Where the baseline\u2019s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c7-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Handoffs and routing<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Finding<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Routed to<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Purpose<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Class<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>CLI-001 \u00b7 temperature<\/td><td>public record<\/td><td>reference for the 2027 series<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FIN-002 \u00b7 losses<\/td><td>finance-readiness review (key F)<\/td><td>protection-gap atlas P-02<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FIN-003 \u00b7 regional insured shares<\/td><td>regional consortia<\/td><td>regional loss splits<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ENE-005 \u00b7 data-centre demand<\/td><td>INI-SR01-TEC-03<\/td><td>compute\u2013power\u2013minerals nexus<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FOO-006 \u00b7 hunger<\/td><td>INI-SR01-FOO-01<\/td><td>breadbasket concurrency<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CLI-010 \u00b7 boundaries and tipping<\/td><td>INI-SR01-CLI-04<\/td><td>tipping register<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FIN-011 \u00b7 debt service<\/td><td>INI-SR01-FIN-05<\/td><td>debt\u2013adaptation constraint<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SYS-012 \u00b7 compound pathway<\/td><td>MSN-SR01-2027-01<\/td><td>Universe candidate<\/td><td>CONSORTIUM<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c7-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Routing rules by publication class<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Class<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Where it goes<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Who can see it<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>PUBLIC<\/td><td>the published edition and its evidence bundle<\/td><td>anyone<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CONSORTIUM<\/td><td>governed rooms of the federation<\/td><td>consortium members under agreement<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CONTROLLED<\/td><td>need-to-know channels<\/td><td>named competent actors only<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Handoffs carry findings to Nexus programme objects and steward reviews. States and organisations receive public editions as published; nothing here instructs them.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c7-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c7-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c7-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.6<\/span><span>Feeds and signal register<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c7-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Feeds watched from 2027<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Feed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Producer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Latency<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Feeds into<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Monthly climate bulletins<\/td><td>Copernicus <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Service<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><td>CLI-001<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ENSO outlooks<\/td><td>WMO and national centres<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><td>SCN-SR01-BBF-01<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global disaster alerts<\/td><td>GDACS (UN and European Commission)<\/td><td>near real time<\/td><td>FIN findings<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Disease outbreak news<\/td><td>WHO<\/td><td>per event<\/td><td>health signals<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Crop and market monitoring<\/td><td>FAO GIEWS \u00b7 AMIS<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><td>RSK-SR01-FOO-001<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Energy market reports<\/td><td>IEA<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><td>ENE findings<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Catastrophe loss estimates<\/td><td>reinsurers and index providers<\/td><td>per event<\/td><td>FIN-002<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Escalation routes<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">none \u00b7 keep monitoring<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">research question<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">project<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">risk object<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">annual publication<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">signal report<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c7-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Signals at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">ID<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Signal<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Corroboration<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Systems<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Route<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>SIG-SR01-001<\/td><td>Earth\u2019s energy imbalance at a record high in 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c7-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c7-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CORROBORATED<\/td><td>CLI \u00b7 all<\/td><td>tipping register P-04<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SIG-SR01-002<\/td><td>Non-peak perils dominate insured losses<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c7-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c7-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CORROBORATED<\/td><td>FIN \u00b7 CLI<\/td><td>protection-gap atlas P-02<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SIG-SR01-003<\/td><td>Rapid growth in data-centre electricity demand<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c7-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c7-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>ENE \u00b7 WAT \u00b7 MIN<\/td><td>research question P-03<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>A signal is not a warning. Signal records never substitute for official alerting or early-warning authorities, and they bypass no publication control.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c7-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c7-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c7-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-01\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a>.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c7-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, WMO-No. 1391. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, March 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c7-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c7-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c7-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c7-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>International Energy Agency (ed.), Energy and AI. World Energy Outlook Special Report. IEA, Paris, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c7-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-part-systems-in-depth\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-01\/\">Global Polycrisis 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 8<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Systems in depth<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>6 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>5 tables<\/span><span>18 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span>.<\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.1<\/span><span>Common causes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">A common cause stresses several <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> at once. Warming is the clearest: one forcing that loads water, food, health and nature in the same years<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">1.43<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">\u00b0C<\/span><p>warming in 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">6 of 9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">boundaries<\/span><p>transgressed<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">US$102<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">trillion<\/span><p>public debt, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instance<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Mechanism in action<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Warming<\/td><td>1.43 \u00b0C in 2025 after a record 1.55 \u00b0C; stress on all five core systems<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n41\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-r41\" aria-label=\"Note 41\">41<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Energy prices<\/td><td>one price shock passes into food, fertiliser and household budgets<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Land-use change<\/td><td>drives <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h27\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.species.biodiversity-loss\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Biodiversity and species stress\" data-td=\"Decline in the variety and abundance of species and habitats that weakens services such as pollination, fisheries and soil formation.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H27\" data-tr=\"draft\">biodiversity loss<\/a>, emissions and zoonotic risk together<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Interest rates<\/td><td>a rise tightens every indebted budget at once<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Pathways in this mechanism<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Warming loads water, food, health and nature together<\/li><li>One energy shock reaches food, fertiliser and budgets<\/li><li>Interest-rate rises tighten every indebted budget<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Attribution of joint stress to each common cause<\/li><li>Timing of common shocks across regions<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Global temperature and ENSO; energy and fertiliser prices; global interest rates.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-01 Water<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-03 Food<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-05 Finance<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-05 Fiscal resilience<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-09 Planetary boundaries<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Mechanism chapters describe how crises connect. They predict no event, rank no threat and assess no government.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.2<\/span><span>Domino effects<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">A domino effect carries a shock from one system to the next. Food and finance are the main channels at baseline.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">673<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>facing hunger, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">123.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>forcibly displaced, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">116<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">US$ bn<\/span><p>uninsured disaster losses, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instance<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Mechanism in action<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Drought \u2192 food \u2192 prices<\/td><td>breadbasket shortfalls transmitted through trade<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Disaster \u2192 budgets<\/td><td>uninsured losses become public and household debt<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Prices \u2192 hunger<\/td><td>food-price rises cut diets in import-dependent households<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Conflict \u2192 displacement<\/td><td>123.2 million forcibly displaced at the end of 2024<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Pathways in this mechanism<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Breadbasket shortfall \u2192 prices \u2192 hunger<\/li><li>Disaster \u2192 uninsured losses \u2192 public debt<\/li><li>Conflict \u2192 displacement \u2192 host-country strain<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Speed of price transmission to households<\/li><li>Fiscal cost of disasters by country group<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Food-price indices, export restrictions and displacement flows after major shocks.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-01 Water<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-03 Food<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-05 Finance<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-05 Fiscal resilience<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-09 Planetary boundaries<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Mechanism chapters describe how crises connect. They predict no event, rank no threat and assess no government.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.3<\/span><span>Inter-systemic feedbacks<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Feedbacks make crises reinforce each other: debt slows recovery, slow recovery deepens vulnerability, and vulnerability raises the cost of the next shock.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">3.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">billion<\/span><p>where interest exceeds health or education<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">US$187\u2013359<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">bn a year<\/span><p>adaptation finance gap<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n42\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-r42\" aria-label=\"Note 42\">42<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">+167<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>heat deaths of over-65s vs 1990s<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n26\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-r26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instance<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Mechanism in action<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Debt\u2013disaster loop<\/td><td>interest costs crowd out adaptation, raising future losses<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n42\" aria-label=\"Note 42\">42<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Hunger\u2013conflict loop<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a> and conflict reinforce each other<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Nature\u2013climate loop<\/td><td>ecosystem loss weakens carbon and water regulation<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Heat\u2013health\u2013labour loop<\/td><td>heat cuts work capacity and income<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Pathways in this mechanism<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Debt slows recovery; slow recovery raises the next loss<\/li><li>Hunger and conflict reinforce each other<\/li><li>Nature loss weakens climate and water regulation<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Recovery times after major disasters<\/li><li>Strength of the debt\u2013disaster loop by region<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Debt-service ratios in high-exposure countries and recovery times after major disasters.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-01 Water<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-03 Food<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-05 Finance<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-05 Fiscal resilience<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-09 Planetary boundaries<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Mechanism chapters describe how crises connect. They predict no event, rank no threat and assess no government.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.4<\/span><span>Shared vulnerabilities<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Entanglement is worst where buffers are thinnest. Fiscal space, insurance cover and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 social-protection\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Public policies and programmes that help people manage risk and reduce poverty and vulnerability across their lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">social protection<\/a> decide whether a shock stays contained.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">48<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>of 2025 disaster losses insured<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">52.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>covered by social protection<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n44\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-r44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">108<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">countries<\/span><p>with multi-hazard <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">early warning<\/a><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n35\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-r35\" aria-label=\"Note 35\">35<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instance<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Mechanism in action<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Fiscal space<\/td><td>3.4 billion people where interest exceeds health or education spending<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Insurance<\/td><td>about half of 2025 losses uninsured; about 12% insured in Asia<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Social protection<\/td><td>52.4% of people covered by at least one benefit<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Early warning<\/td><td>108 countries with multi-hazard <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> in 2024<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n35\" aria-label=\"Note 35\">35<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Pathways in this mechanism<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Thin buffers turn shocks into crises<\/li><li>Where insurance, protection and warning are all thin, losses compound<\/li><li>Buffers bought before the shock cost least<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Overlap of hazard, debt and thin cover<\/li><li>Tested performance of buffers in real events<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Coverage of insurance, social protection and early warning where hazard and debt are both high.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-01 Water<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-03 Food<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-05 Finance<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-05 Fiscal resilience<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-09 Planetary boundaries<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Mechanism chapters describe how crises connect. They predict no event, rank no threat and assess no government.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.5<\/span><span>Thresholds and tipping<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Some couplings change character past a threshold. Planetary boundaries and tipping <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> mark where gradual stress can become abrupt change.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">6 of 9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">boundaries<\/span><p>transgressed, 2023<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">systems<\/span><p>tipping at risk at current warming<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">record<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">2025<\/span><p>Earth energy imbalance<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instance<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Mechanism in action<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Planetary boundaries<\/td><td>six of nine assessed as transgressed in 2023<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Tipping systems<\/td><td>five major systems at risk at current warming<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Safe and just limits<\/td><td>boundaries defined for people as well as the planet<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n47\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-r47\" aria-label=\"Note 47\">47<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Energy imbalance<\/td><td>record high in 2025; the system is still gaining heat<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Pathways in this mechanism<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Gradual stress can become abrupt change<\/li><li>Some tipping systems interact and may cascade<\/li><li>Thresholds shrink the time available to respond<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Early-warning indicators for each tipping system<\/li><li>Interactions between tipping systems<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Early-warning indicators for tipping systems and updates to the planetary-boundary assessment.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-01 Water<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-03 Food<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-05 Finance<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-05 Fiscal resilience<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-09 Planetary boundaries<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Mechanism chapters describe how crises connect. They predict no event, rank no threat and assess no government.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-01\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a>.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, WMO-No. 1391. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, March 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>K. Richardson, W. Steffen, W. Lucht et al., \u201cEarth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries,\u201d Science Advances, vol. 9, eadh2458, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2025: It Is Time for Reform. UNCTAD, Geneva, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2024, WMO-No. 1368. WMO, Geneva, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-r41\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 41\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281\/zenodo.13850054. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5281\/zenodo.13850054\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.5281\/zenodo.13850054<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>K. O\u2019Brien, L. Garibaldi and A. Agrawal (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Underlying Causes of <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h27\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.species.biodiversity-loss\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Biodiversity and species stress\" data-td=\"Decline in the variety and abundance of species and habitats that weakens services such as pollination, fisheries and soil formation.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H27\" data-tr=\"draft\">Biodiversity Loss<\/a> and the Determinants of Transformative Change. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>M. Lawrence, T. Homer-Dixon, S. Janzwood, J. Rockstr\u00f6m, O. Renn and J. F. Donges, \u201cGlobal <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h120\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 sys.fragility.polycrisis\" data-tk=\"Systemic and compound events \u00b7 Structural fragility of interconnected systems\" data-td=\"Several global crises, such as conflict, climate, debt, disease and energy, interacting so that each worsens the others and the joint harm exceeds their sum.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H120\" data-tr=\"draft\">polycrisis<\/a>: the causal mechanisms of crisis entanglement,\u201d Global Sustainability, vol. 7, e6, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025. FAO, Rome, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>UNHCR (ed.), Global Trends: <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h57\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 soc.humanitarian.mass-displacement\" data-tk=\"Society, conflict and economy \u00b7 Humanitarian crises\" data-td=\"Large numbers of people forced to leave their homes by conflict, disaster or collapse, straining host areas and services.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H57\" data-tr=\"draft\">Forced Displacement<\/a> in 2024. UNHCR, Copenhagen, June 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>F. Gaupp, J. Hall, S. Hochrainer-Stigler and S. Dadson, \u201cChanging risks of simultaneous global breadbasket failure,\u201d Nature <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a>, vol. 10, pp. 54\u201357, 2020.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n42\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">42<\/span><span>UNEP (ed.), Adaptation Gap Report 2024: Come Hell and High Water. UNEP, Nairobi, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-r42\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 42\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>M. Romanello et al., \u201cThe 2024 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change,\u201d The Lancet, vol. 404, pp. 1847\u20131896, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-r26\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 26\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>International Labour Organization (ed.), World Social Protection Report 2024\u201326: Universal Social Protection for Climate Action and a Just Transition. ILO, Geneva, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-r44\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 44\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>WMO and UNDRR (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2024. WMO and UNDRR, Geneva, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-r35\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 35\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>T. M. Lenton, D. I. Armstrong McKay, S. Loriani et al. (eds.), The Global Tipping Points Report 2023. University of Exeter, Exeter, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-n47\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">47<\/span><span>J. Rockstr\u00f6m, J. Gupta, D. Qin et al., \u201cSafe and just Earth system boundaries,\u201d Nature, vol. 619, pp. 102\u2013111, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-c8-r47\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 47\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-part-methodology\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-01\/\">Global Polycrisis 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex A<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Methodology<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>9 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>12 tables<\/span><span>6 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span>.<\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.1<\/span><span>Methods<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Methods<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">No.<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Derivation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Calculation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Result<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>(1)<\/td><td>Insured share of 2025 losses<\/td><td>108 \u00f7 224<\/td><td>\u2248 48%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(2)<\/td><td>Uninsured 2025 losses<\/td><td>224 \u2212 108<\/td><td>US$116 bn<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(3)<\/td><td>Insured share in Asia<\/td><td>9 \u00f7 73<\/td><td>\u2248 12%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(4)<\/td><td>Insured share in North America<\/td><td>93 \u00f7 133<\/td><td>\u2248 70%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Strength<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Definition<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>STRONG<\/td><td>a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system\u2019s service or output within one season, in more than one region<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>MODERATE<\/td><td>an effect is documented but buffered or slower<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WEAK<\/td><td>an effect is plausible but not documented at global scale<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Status grammar<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Label<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Rule<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td>value as issued by its source, with year<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><td>reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Estimated<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus analytical value with stated method<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td>conditional on stated assumptions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><td>structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.2<\/span><span>Model card, Polycrisis System Model v0<\/span><\/h2><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Model ID<\/dt><dd>MDL-SR01-POLYCRISIS \u00b7 v0.1<\/dd><dt>Purpose<\/dt><dd>represent the world as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> with forcing and transmission layers<\/dd><dt>Family<\/dt><dd>graph-based system of systems<\/dd><dt>Inputs<\/dt><dd>the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data<\/dd><dt>Method<\/dt><dd>expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG \u00b7 MODERATE \u00b7 WEAK) from assessments and analogue events<\/dd><dt>Validation<\/dt><dd>none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027<\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements<\/dd><dt>Domain of validity<\/dt><dd>global scale; not for country, regional or asset-level use<\/dd><dt>Reproducibility<\/dt><dd>strength table and sources published in this edition<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">20<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">couplings<\/span><p>typed in v0<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">11<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">strong<\/span><p>documented within one season<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">moderate<\/span><p><code>documented<\/code>, <code>buffered<\/code><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">weak<\/span><p><code>plausible<\/code>, <code>undocumented<\/code><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">SUITABLE FOR<\/p><p>framing the 2027 agenda; choosing which couplings to measure first; explaining the entangled reading of <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 global-risk\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Nexus risk class: a risk whose hazard, consequences or causal chain crosses national borders and acts at continental or planetary scale, so that no single country can assess or manage it alone.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">global risk<\/a>.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NOT SUITABLE FOR<\/p><p>quantitative loss estimates, country comparisons or rankings, operational decisions, or any claim about a specific asset.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">VERSIONING<\/p><p>Models are immutable by version. A change to any coupling, rule or weight produces v0.2 with its own card and correction note.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.3<\/span><span>The baseline evidence cut<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Cut ID<\/dt><dd>DC-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-B0<\/dd><dt>Type<\/dt><dd>baseline documentary cut<\/dd><dt>Resolution policy<\/dt><dd>pinned \u00b7 as of 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Sources pinned<\/dt><dd>47 cited sources, each at the edition and retrieval date in the references<\/dd><dt>Model runs<\/dt><dd>none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method<\/dd><dt>Digest<\/dt><dd>computed at <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h5\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.thermal.hard-freeze\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Thermal extremes\" data-td=\"Air temperature falling well below freezing for hours, killing crops, bursting pipes and stopping water flow.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H5\" data-tr=\"draft\">freeze<\/a> and recorded in the publication record<\/dd><dt>Supersedes<\/dt><dd>nothing, first cut of the series<\/dd><dt>Superseded by<\/dt><dd>the 2027 <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h120\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 sys.fragility.polycrisis\" data-tk=\"Systemic and compound events \u00b7 Structural fragility of interconnected systems\" data-td=\"Several global crises, such as conflict, climate, debt, disease and energy, interacting so that each worsens the others and the joint harm exceeds their sum.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H120\" data-tr=\"draft\">polycrisis<\/a> annual cut<\/dd><\/dl><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Lineage<\/h3><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">source edition<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">pinned citation<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">finding<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">page<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">publication record<\/p><\/li><\/ol><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">From the baseline cut to the federation cut<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Element<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline 2026<\/th><th scope=\"col\">2027 global annual<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Sources<\/td><td>cited global publications, pinned by edition<\/td><td>national, regional and sector cuts through one graph<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Analysis<\/td><td>stated methods and editorial estimates<\/td><td>typed analysis specifications<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Models<\/td><td>Polycrisis System Model v0 specification<\/td><td>model runs with receipts<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Findings<\/td><td>twelve baseline findings<\/td><td>findings re-bound to federation evidence<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Review<\/td><td>five passes scheduled<\/td><td>five passes on the exact digest<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.4<\/span><span>Evidence age and coverage<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence age and coverage<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Indicator<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Observed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Released<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Cadence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Next release<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Global mean temperature<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>Mar 2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>Mar 2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Natural-disaster losses<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>Jan 2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>Jan 2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Total GHG emissions<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>Oct 2024<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>annual<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Energy-related CO\u2082<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>Mar 2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>annual<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Hunger and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a><\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>Jul 2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>annual<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Safely managed water<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>Jul 2023<\/td><td>biennial<\/td><td>biennial<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Air-pollution deaths<\/td><td>2019\u20132020<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>next WHO update<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Wildlife population index<\/td><td>1970\u20132020<\/td><td>Oct 2024<\/td><td>biennial<\/td><td>2026 edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h57\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 soc.humanitarian.mass-displacement\" data-tk=\"Society, conflict and economy \u00b7 Humanitarian crises\" data-td=\"Large numbers of people forced to leave their homes by conflict, disaster or collapse, straining host areas and services.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H57\" data-tr=\"draft\">Forced displacement<\/a><\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>Jun 2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>annual<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Public debt<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>annual<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coverage by system at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">System<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coverage<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Thinnest dimension<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Climate forcing<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><td>regional extremes and tipping proximity<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Energy<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><td>compute demand and water use<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Finance<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><td>losses in low-income regions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Food<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><td>concurrency of shortfalls<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Water<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>groundwater and basin stress<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Health<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>heat mortality outside high-income regions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Biodiversity<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>ecosystem condition beyond protected areas<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Digital and cyber<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><td>dependency mapping<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.5<\/span><span>Evidence cards, two anchor sources<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Issued by the World Meteorological Organization from nine international temperature datasets and contributions from national meteorological services, regional climate centres and UN partners. Annual, released each March. Role: binds CLI-001 and the record ocean-heat and energy-imbalance signals.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EVD-SR01-001<\/h3><p>State of the Global Climate 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Issued by Munich Re from its global natural-disaster loss database, maintained since 1980. Overall and insured losses with fatalities, by peril and region; 10- and 30-year inflation-adjusted averages. Role: binds FIN-002 and FIN-003.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EVD-SR01-002<\/h3><p>NatCatSERVICE 2025 full-year figures<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/article><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Quality dimensions at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Dimension<\/th><th scope=\"col\">EVD-SR01-001<\/th><th scope=\"col\">EVD-SR01-002<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Completeness<\/td><td>near-global; gaps filled statistically<\/td><td>reported and estimated losses<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Timeliness<\/td><td>about three months after the year<\/td><td>weeks after the year<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Revision<\/td><td>datasets revised as records improve<\/td><td>event estimates revised<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Method transparency<\/td><td>datasets and methods published<\/td><td>summary methodology published<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>External validation<\/td><td>multiple independent datasets<\/td><td>compared with other loss providers<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence cards to follow in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>SOFI 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup>, hunger estimation and uncertainty<\/li><li>JMP<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup>, water and sanitation service ladders<\/li><li>Living Planet Index<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup>, population trend method<\/li><li>A World of Debt<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup>, interest and social spending comparisons<\/li><\/ul><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.6<\/span><span>Publication acceptance record<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Publication acceptance record<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Group<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Area<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Items<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Pass<\/th><th scope=\"col\">N\/A<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Pending<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>D1<\/td><td>Identity and scope<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D2<\/td><td>Source and data<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>1<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D3<\/td><td>Analysis and models<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>3<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D4<\/td><td>Findings and claims<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D5<\/td><td>Figures, tables, maps<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>6<\/td><td>2<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D6<\/td><td>Editorial and citations<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D7<\/td><td>Review and approval<\/td><td>13<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>13<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D8<\/td><td>Artefact and design<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>7<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D9<\/td><td>Registry and release<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>9<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication gate<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Conditions met<\/dt><dd>14 of 23 at evidence close<\/dd><dt>Blocking problems<\/dt><dd>none recorded<\/dd><dt>Open conditions<\/dt><dd>reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Not applicable at baseline<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Model runs<\/dt><dd>first runs in Q1 2027<\/dd><dt>Maps<\/dt><dd>plates in Q2 2027<\/dd><dt>Waivers<\/dt><dd>none<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Dispositions are recorded item by item in the machine-readable checklist. A FAIL on any item blocks release.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.7<\/span><span>Status words<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-tab9\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">The status every value carries<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it means<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"positive\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Observed<\/span><\/td><td>Measured directly and published by the source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td>Published statistics of an official or institutional source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Declared<\/span><\/td><td>Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Estimated<\/span><\/td><td>A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Modelled<\/span><\/td><td>Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><td>Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Forecast<\/span><\/td><td>A projection by the cited source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Simulated<\/span><\/td><td>A simulation result under stated assumptions.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td>A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><td>Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Candidate<\/span><\/td><td>Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"2\">Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.8<\/span><span>How the edition is made, released and corrected<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nx-p\">Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a> as change proposals and feed the next cut.<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">01 Evidence arrives from the pillars<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site&#8217;s.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">02 The cut is sealed<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">03 The edition is assembled<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">04 The keys turn<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Nexus Standards reviews the parts applied: identifiers, citation, metadata, figures and crosswalks, cited as preparatory working drafts. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">05 The gate opens<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">06 Signed and deposited<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">07 Published on five sites<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Only then do the five Reports sites show the edition as published, each reading it through its own lens.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">08 Corrections go to Standards<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-2\">A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/nexus-reports\/governance\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Reports governance at Nexus Standards<\/a> (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-s9\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-s9-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-s9-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.9<\/span><span>Glossary and abbreviations<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-tab10\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.10<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Series terms<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Term<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Meaning<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Baseline Edition<\/td><td>the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WEFH+B<\/td><td>water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/governance-in-operation\/national-nexus\" data-tc=\"National Nexus\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The national model: the NNC, the NLC and the NWG as its three participation pillars, with the National Desk, Model and Portfolio and the NSC as the standards function of the NNC (OR-13)\">national nexus<\/a> core<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Coupling<\/td><td>a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 protection-gap\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The difference between total economic losses from hazards and the share covered by insurance or other pre-arranged protection, leaving households, firms and governments to absorb the rest.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Protection gap<\/a><\/td><td>the share of losses not covered by insurance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Capability ladder<\/td><td>LISTED \u2192 EXISTS \u2192 ADEQUATE \u2192 TESTED \u2192 DEMONSTRATED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EQL<\/td><td>evidence-quality level, 1\u20135<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence cut<\/td><td>a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NNC \u00b7 NLC \u00b7 NWG<\/td><td>National Nexus Consortium \u00b7 National Leadership Council \u00b7 National Working Groups<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-tab11\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.11<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Abbreviations used in this edition<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Abbreviation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Expansion<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>AMIS<\/td><td>Agricultural Market Information System<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>BBNJ<\/td><td>Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction (High Seas Agreement)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>C3S<\/td><td>Copernicus <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Service<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ENSO<\/td><td>El Ni\u00f1o\u2013Southern Oscillation<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>GAR<\/td><td>Global Assessment Report on Disaster <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-reduction\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Preventing new risk, reducing existing risk and managing residual risk, all contributing to resilience.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Risk Reduction<\/a><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>GDACS<\/td><td>Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>GIEWS<\/td><td>Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IHR<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/health\/international-health-regulations-alignment\/\">International Health Regulations<\/a> (2005)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IPBES<\/td><td>Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IPCC<\/td><td>Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ISSB<\/td><td>International Sustainability Standards Board<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>JMP<\/td><td>WHO\/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SOFI<\/td><td>The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WMO<\/td><td>World Meteorological Organization<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-s10\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-s10-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-s10-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.10<\/span><span>Technical annex<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-tab12\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.12<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Technical annex<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Annex<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Contents<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>A.1<\/td><td>Indicator definitions<\/td><td>the global indicator set, with units and sources<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.2<\/td><td>Coupling strengths<\/td><td>the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.3<\/td><td>Scenario specification<\/td><td>SCN-SR01-BBF-01 assumptions and signposts<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.4<\/td><td>Capability placements<\/td><td>rung evidence for fifteen functions<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.5<\/td><td>Model diagnostics<\/td><td>first runs and validation<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.6<\/td><td>Sensitivity analyses<\/td><td>influence of coupling strengths<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.7<\/td><td>Regional notes<\/td><td>regional baseline cards<\/td><td>WITH REGIONAL EDITIONS<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.8<\/td><td>Review statements<\/td><td>pass-by-pass review record<\/td><td>AT RELEASE<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">A.1 \u00b7 indicator definition, global mean near-surface temperature<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Construct<\/dt><dd>annual global mean near-surface air temperature anomaly<\/dd><dt>Unit<\/dt><dd>\u00b0C relative to 1850\u20131900<\/dd><dt>Method<\/dt><dd>synthesis of nine international datasets<\/dd><dt>Source<\/dt><dd>WMO State of the Global Climate 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>\u00b10.13 \u00b0C (90% range)<\/dd><dt>Known limits<\/dt><dd>a single year above 1.5 \u00b0C does not mean the Paris limit is passed<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Annexes carry the same evidence, review and correction rules as the chapters and are versioned with the edition.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-01\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a>.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, WMO-No. 1391. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, March 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025. FAO, Rome, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>WHO and UNICEF (eds.), Progress on Household Drinking Water, Sanitation and Hygiene 2000\u20132022. Joint Monitoring Programme, New York and Geneva, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>WWF (ed.), Living Planet Report 2024: A System in Peril. WWF, Gland, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2025: It Is Time for Reform. UNCTAD, Geneva, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-ca-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-part-data\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-01\/\">Global Polycrisis 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex B<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Data appendix<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>8 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>8 tables<\/span><span>21 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span>.<\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.1<\/span><span>The indicator set<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Global baseline indicator set<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Indicator<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Unit<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Global mean temperature above 1850\u20131900<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">1.43<\/span><\/td><td>\u00b0C<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Record year temperature<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">1.55<\/span><\/td><td>\u00b0C<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n41\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-r41\" aria-label=\"Note 41\">41<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Three-year average temperature<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">1.48<\/span><\/td><td>\u00b0C<\/td><td>2023\u20132025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n40\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-r40\" aria-label=\"Note 40\">40<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CO\u2082 concentration<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">423.9<\/span><\/td><td>ppm<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Total GHG emissions<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">57.1<\/span><\/td><td>Gt CO\u2082e<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Energy-related CO\u2082<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">37.8<\/span><\/td><td>Gt CO\u2082<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Data-centre electricity use<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">\u2248415<\/span><\/td><td>TWh<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Natural-disaster losses<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">224<\/span><\/td><td>US$ billion<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Insured disaster losses<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">108<\/span><\/td><td>US$ billion<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Disaster deaths<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">17,200<\/span><\/td><td>deaths<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>People facing hunger<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">673<\/span><\/td><td>million<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Without safely managed water<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">2.2<\/span><\/td><td>billion<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Air-pollution deaths<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">6.7<\/span><\/td><td>million a year<\/td><td>2019\u20132020<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Wildlife population change<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">\u221273<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>1970\u20132020<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Protected land \u00b7 ocean<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">17.6 \u00b7 8.4<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Population<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">8.2<\/span><\/td><td>billion<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Forcibly displaced<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">123.2<\/span><\/td><td>million<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Public debt<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">102<\/span><\/td><td>US$ trillion<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Covered by <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 social-protection\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Public policies and programmes that help people manage risk and reduce poverty and vulnerability across their lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">social protection<\/a><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">52.4<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n44\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-r44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-actions nrp-noprint\"><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" 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download=\"NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-indicators.csv\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M12 15V3\"\/><path d=\"M21 15v4a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H5a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-4\"\/><path d=\"m7 10 5 5 5-5\"\/><\/svg>Indicators, CSV<\/a><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"data:application\/json;charset=utf-8,%7B%0A%20%22edition%22%3A%20%22NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE%22%2C%0A%20%22title%22%3A%20%22Strategic%20Systems%20Report%202026%3A%20Global%20Polycrisis%20and%20Cascading%20Systems%20Risk%22%2C%0A%20%22status%22%3A%20%22Draft%20under%20stewardship%20review%3B%20not%20yet%20released%22%2C%0A%20%22licence%22%3A%20%22CC-BY-4.0%20for%20the%20edition%20table%3B%20each%20value%20keeps%20its%20source's%20licence%22%2C%0A%20%22columns%22%3A%20%5B%0A%20%20%22Indicator%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Value%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Unit%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Year%22%2C%0A%20%20%22State%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Source%22%0A%20%5D%2C%0A%20%22rows%22%3A%20%5B%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Global%20mean%20temperature%20above%201850%E2%80%931900%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%221.43%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%C2%B0C%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Record%20year%20temperature%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%221.55%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%C2%B0C%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B41%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Three-year%20average%20temperature%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%221.48%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%C2%B0C%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222023%E2%80%932025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B40%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22CO%E2%82%82%20concentration%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22423.9%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22ppm%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Total%20GHG%20emissions%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2257.1%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22Gt%20CO%E2%82%82e%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222023%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B3%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Energy-related%20CO%E2%82%82%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2237.8%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22Gt%20CO%E2%82%82%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B4%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Data-centre%20electricity%20use%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%E2%89%88415%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22TWh%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B5%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Natural-disaster%20losses%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22224%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22US%24%20billion%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B2%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Insured%20disaster%20losses%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22108%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22US%24%20billion%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B2%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Disaster%20deaths%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2217%2C200%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22deaths%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B2%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22People%20facing%20hunger%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22673%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B7%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Without%20safely%20managed%20water%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222.2%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22billion%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222022%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B8%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Air-pollution%20deaths%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%226.7%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%20a%20year%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222019%E2%80%932020%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B14%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Wildlife%20population%20change%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%E2%88%9273%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%221970%E2%80%932020%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B9%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Protected%20land%20%C2%B7%20ocean%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2217.6%20%C2%B7%208.4%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B10%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Population%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%228.2%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22billion%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B11%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Forcibly%20displaced%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22123.2%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B12%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Public%20debt%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22102%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22US%24%20trillion%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B13%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Covered%20by%20social%20protection%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2252.4%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222023%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B44%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%0A%20%5D%0A%7D\" download=\"NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-indicators.json\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M12 15V3\"\/><path d=\"M21 15v4a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H5a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-4\"\/><path d=\"m7 10 5 5 5-5\"\/><\/svg>Indicators, JSON<\/a><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NOTES<\/p><p>Loss values are nominal US dollars as published. Temperature values carry an uncertainty of about \u00b10.13 \u00b0C. A machine-readable copy of this table is published with the evidence bundle at release.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.2<\/span><span>Global source register<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Domains bound by the register<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">WAT<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">ENE<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">FOO<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">HLT<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">BIO<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">CLI<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">FIN<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">TRD<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">MIN<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">AIC<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Global source register<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Category<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coverage<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Period<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Cadence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>State of the Global Climate<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN technical body<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>1850\u20132025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>CLI<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NatCatSERVICE<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>industry<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>1980\u20132025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>FIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Emissions Gap Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN programme<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>1990\u20132023<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>CLI \u00b7 ENE<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Energy Review<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>intergovernmental<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>ENE<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SOFI 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN agencies<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>FOO<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>JMP<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN agencies<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2000\u20132022<\/td><td>biennial<\/td><td>WAT \u00b7 HLT<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Living Planet Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>civil society<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>1970\u20132020<\/td><td>biennial<\/td><td>BIO<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>World Population Prospects<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN statistics<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>1950\u20132100<\/td><td>biennial<\/td><td>profile<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Trends<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN agency<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>development<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A World of Debt<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN agency<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>FIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Air-quality data<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN agency<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2019\u20132020<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>HLT<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Critical Minerals Outlook<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n36\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-r36\" aria-label=\"Note 36\">36<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>intergovernmental<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>MIN<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">FIXTURE PROHIBITION<\/p><p>No demonstration or reference-cartographic fixture is used as evidence in this edition. The publication gate checks every binding against this register.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.3<\/span><span>Regional reading, ten regional clusters<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Map plates follow with the regional Baseline Editions, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form, and ranks no region.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Regional reading, ten regional clusters<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Region<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Principal hazards<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Systems most exposed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline evidence<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>North America<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/wildfire-and-vegetation-fire-standards\/\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.wildfire.wildfire\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Vegetation and peat fire\" data-td=\"An uncontrolled fire in forest, scrub or grass that burns structures, crops and habitat and fills the air with smoke.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H24\" data-tr=\"draft\">wildfire<\/a>, severe storms, hurricanes, heat<\/td><td><code>insurance<\/code>, <code>power<\/code>, <code>housing<\/code><\/td><td>2025 losses<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>South America<\/td><td><code>drought<\/code>, <code>flood<\/code>, <code>fire<\/code><\/td><td><code>hydropower<\/code>, <code>agriculture<\/code>, <code>forests<\/code><\/td><td>regional assessments<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Europe<\/td><td>heat, flood, drought, <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h24\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.wildfire.wildfire\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Vegetation and peat fire\" data-td=\"An uncontrolled fire in forest, scrub or grass that burns structures, crops and habitat and fills the air with smoke.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H24\" data-tr=\"draft\">wildfire<\/a><\/td><td><code>health<\/code>, <code>energy<\/code>, <code>agriculture<\/code><\/td><td>2025 losses<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Eurasia<\/td><td>heat, drought, <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h15\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 cryo.glacier.permafrost-thaw\" data-tk=\"Ice and snow \u00b7 Glacier, ice-sheet and permafrost change\" data-td=\"Warming of frozen ground that weakens foundations, collapses slopes, releases greenhouse gases and reshapes drainage.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H15\" data-tr=\"draft\">permafrost thaw<\/a><\/td><td>agriculture, infrastructure<\/td><td>assessments<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Middle East and North Africa<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/hydrometeorological-hazard-standards\/\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.thermal.heatwave\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Thermal extremes\" data-td=\"A spell of abnormally high temperature, often with warm nights, that overloads bodies, power grids and crops.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H5\" data-tr=\"draft\">extreme heat<\/a>, <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h10\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 water.deficit.supply-shortfall\" data-tk=\"Water systems \u00b7 Water deficit\" data-td=\"Demand exceeding the water a system can deliver, so that rationing or cuts follow for homes, farms and industry.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H10\" data-tr=\"draft\">water scarcity<\/a><\/td><td>water, food imports, health<\/td><td>water reports<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n38\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-r38\" aria-label=\"Note 38\">38<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Africa<\/td><td><code>drought<\/code>, <code>flood<\/code>, <code>heat<\/code><\/td><td><code>food<\/code>, <code>health<\/code>, <code>livelihoods<\/code><\/td><td>losses largely uninsured<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>South Asia<\/td><td>heat, monsoon floods, cyclones<\/td><td><code>health<\/code>, <code>labour<\/code>, <code>agriculture<\/code><\/td><td>heat\u2013health<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n26\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-r26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>East Asia<\/td><td><code>typhoons<\/code>, <code>floods<\/code>, <code>heat<\/code><\/td><td>manufacturing, cities, power<\/td><td>2025 losses<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ASEAN<\/td><td>typhoons, floods, <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h11\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 water.coastal.sea-level-rise\" data-tk=\"Water systems \u00b7 Coastal and sea-level hazards\" data-td=\"A long-term rise of mean sea level that raises the baseline for floods, erosion and saltwater intrusion.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H11\" data-tr=\"draft\">sea-level rise<\/a><\/td><td>coasts, agriculture, supply chains<\/td><td>assessments<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Oceania-Pacific<\/td><td>cyclones, floods, sea-level rise<\/td><td>small islands, coasts, insurance<\/td><td>assessments<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">MAP PLATES WITH THE REGIONAL EDITIONS<\/p><p>Each plate will carry its boundary source and version, projection, resolution, classification, uncertainty encoding and public-safe transform, with text and table alternatives.<\/p><\/aside><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Regional readings summarise the cited evidence. They are not risk ratings of any region or country.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.4<\/span><span>Regional card, South Asia<\/span><\/h2><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">region<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">basin<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">monsoon system<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">corridor<\/li><\/ul><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Systems in view<\/dt><dd><code>health<\/code>, <code>labour<\/code>, <code>water<\/code>, <code>food<\/code>, <code>energy<\/code><\/dd><dt>Defining hazards<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/hydrometeorological-hazard-standards\/\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.thermal.heatwave\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Thermal extremes\" data-td=\"A spell of abnormally high temperature, often with warm nights, that overloads bodies, power grids and crops.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H5\" data-tr=\"draft\">extreme heat<\/a> before the monsoon; monsoon floods; cyclones on the Bay of Bengal<\/dd><dt>Couplings<\/dt><dd>CLI \u2192 HLT heat; WAT \u2192 FOO monsoon-fed agriculture; ENE \u2192 HLT cooling demand<\/dd><dt>Capability evidence<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h2\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.cyclone.tropical-cyclone\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Cyclonic storm systems\" data-td=\"A warm-core rotating storm over tropical oceans whose winds, rain and surge threaten coasts and inland river basins.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H2\" data-tr=\"draft\">cyclone<\/a> <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">early warning<\/a> credited with large falls in deaths over recent decades<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n35\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-r35\" aria-label=\"Note 35\">35<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Gaps<\/dt><dd>heat mortality and labour-loss data; <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h10\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 water.deficit.groundwater-depletion\" data-tk=\"Water systems \u00b7 Water deficit\" data-td=\"Aquifers drawn down faster than they refill, lowering wells and driving land subsidence and saltwater intrusion.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H10\" data-tr=\"draft\">groundwater depletion<\/a><\/dd><dt>Agenda items<\/dt><dd>P-06 \u00b7 P-07<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Pre-monsoon heat is the region\u2019s leading climate\u2013health exposure, falling hardest on outdoor workers and people without cooling [26].<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">HEALTH<\/h3><p>Heat and work<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Agriculture depends on monsoon timing and groundwater; a late or weak monsoon couples water, food prices and rural incomes [38].<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">WATER AND FOOD<\/h3><p>The monsoon as infrastructure<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Cyclone warning and evacuation along the Bay of Bengal is among the clearest cases of early warning saving lives at scale [35].<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EARLY WARNING<\/h3><p>A demonstrated capability<\/p><\/article><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Regional cards are generated for all ten clusters from the regional Baseline Editions, with consistent fields and evidence-age labels. South Asia is shown first because it holds the leading heat\u2013water\u2013labour pathway.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.5<\/span><span>How countries appear in the global edition<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Countries enter the global edition through their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never placed in a league table.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">How countries appear in the global edition<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Card field<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it shows<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>WEFH+B state<\/td><td>each core system against peer distribution bands<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Couplings<\/td><td>the national dependency matrix<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Risk objects<\/td><td>the national risk portfolio<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Capability rungs<\/td><td>the national capability ladder<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence age<\/td><td>oldest and newest source dates<\/td><td>national source register<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme<\/h3><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">26<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">national<\/span><p>countries and unions<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">10<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">regional<\/span><p>clusters<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">16<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">global<\/span><p>flagship and sector<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">14<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">strategic<\/span><p><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> reports<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">20<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">frontier<\/span><p>technology reports<\/p><\/div><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">How to read a country card<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist<\/li><li>Couplings and risk objects come from the country\u2019s own national edition<\/li><li>Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions<\/li><li>Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">National Baseline Editions in the 2026 programme<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Wave<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Countries and unions<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>W0<\/td><td>Canada<\/td><td>ISSUED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>W1<\/td><td>United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, European Union, Switzerland<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>W2<\/td><td>Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, T\u00fcrkiye, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, South Africa, Senegal, Kenya, African Union, India, China, Republic of Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, Australia<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>External rankings, where cited, keep their own method and source. Nexus never converts them into a rating, and each country\u2019s ownership of its national edition is unaffected by its appearance here.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.6<\/span><span>Licences<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Licences of each kind of material<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Material<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Licence<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Text<\/td><td>CC BY 4.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Data<\/td><td>on the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Figures<\/td><td>Nexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Maps<\/td><td>boundary source and licence printed on each plate<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Metadata<\/td><td>CC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Third-party data, figures and text<\/td><td>The source&#8217;s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"2\">Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.7<\/span><span>Formats and provenance<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">This edition in every format<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Format<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Kind<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it is<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Identifier<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Web edition<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HTML<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Print edition<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"release\">At release<\/span><\/td><td>A4 portrait \u00b7 screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Indicator data<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CSV \u00b7 JSON<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>19 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE data release v1<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Figures<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">SVG \u00b7 PNG<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIG-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-*<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Slides<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"none\">Not recorded<\/span><\/td><td>No slide deck is recorded for this edition.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence brief<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HTML \u00b7 PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"none\">Not recorded<\/span><\/td><td>No evidence brief is recorded for this edition.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Dataset with DOI<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DataCite<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"release\">At release<\/span><\/td><td>Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Provenance<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Edition pack<\/dt><dd>The edition&#8217;s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built<\/dd><dt>Evidence cut<\/dt><dd>DC-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Reproducibility<\/dt><dd>sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters<\/dd><dt>Self-check<\/dt><dd>14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release<\/dd><dt>Review<\/dt><dd>five passes scheduled before release<\/dd><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>GCRI for the Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Corrections<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-01\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a>.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, WMO-No. 1391. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, March 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2024, WMO-No. 1368. WMO, Geneva, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-r41\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 41\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), \u201cWMO confirms 2025 was one of warmest years on record.\u201d Press release. WMO, Geneva, January 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-r40\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 40\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air \u2026 please! UNEP, Nairobi, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>International Energy Agency (ed.), Energy and AI. World Energy Outlook Special Report. IEA, Paris, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025. FAO, Rome, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>WHO and UNICEF (eds.), Progress on Household Drinking Water, Sanitation and Hygiene 2000\u20132022. Joint Monitoring Programme, New York and Geneva, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>World Health Organization (ed.), \u201cAmbient (outdoor) air pollution\u201d and \u201c<a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h29\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 poll.air-quality.household-air-pollution\" data-tk=\"Pollution and hazardous substances \u00b7 Air pollution episodes\" data-td=\"Smoke and gases from cooking, heating and lighting with solid fuels or kerosene that accumulate indoors.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H29\" data-tr=\"draft\">Household air pollution<\/a>\u201d fact sheets. WHO, Geneva, retrieved 2026-09-30.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>WWF (ed.), Living Planet Report 2024: A System in Peril. WWF, Gland, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>UNEP-WCMC and IUCN (eds.), Protected Planet Report 2024. UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, Cambridge and Gland, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results. United Nations, New York, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>UNHCR (ed.), Global Trends: <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h57\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 soc.humanitarian.mass-displacement\" data-tk=\"Society, conflict and economy \u00b7 Humanitarian crises\" data-td=\"Large numbers of people forced to leave their homes by conflict, disaster or collapse, straining host areas and services.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H57\" data-tr=\"draft\">Forced Displacement<\/a> in 2024. UNHCR, Copenhagen, June 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2025: It Is Time for Reform. UNCTAD, Geneva, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>International Labour Organization (ed.), World <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 social-protection\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Public policies and programmes that help people manage risk and reduce poverty and vulnerability across their lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Social Protection<\/a> Report 2024\u201326: Universal Social Protection for Climate Action and a Just Transition. ILO, Geneva, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-r44\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 44\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-r36\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 36\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n38\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">38<\/span><span>UNESCO World Water Assessment Programme (ed.), The United Nations World Water Development Report 2024: Water for Prosperity and Peace. UNESCO, Paris, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-r38\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 38\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>M. Romanello et al., \u201cThe 2024 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change,\u201d The Lancet, vol. 404, pp. 1847\u20131896, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-r26\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 26\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-n35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>WMO and UNDRR (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2024. WMO and UNDRR, Geneva, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-01-cb-r35\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 35\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-part-references\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cc-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-01\/\">Global Polycrisis 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex C<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">References and record<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>11 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>1 table<\/span><span>0 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span>.<\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cc-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cc-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cc-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.1<\/span><span>48 sources<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/uni\/\" data-tc=\"UNI\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The universal identifier of every Nexus artifact (NS-1)\">UNI<\/a> once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ref-1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, WMO-No. 1391. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, March 2026. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ref-2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ref-3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air \u2026 please! UNEP, Nairobi, 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ref-4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ref-5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>International Energy Agency (ed.), Energy and AI. World Energy Outlook Special Report. IEA, Paris, 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 7<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ref-6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2025. Ember, London, 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 3, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ref-7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025. FAO, Rome, 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ref-8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>WHO and UNICEF (eds.), Progress on Household Drinking Water, Sanitation and Hygiene 2000\u20132022. Joint Monitoring Programme, New York and Geneva, 2023. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ref-9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>WWF (ed.), Living Planet Report 2024: A System in Peril. WWF, Gland, 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ref-10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>UNEP-WCMC and IUCN (eds.), Protected Planet Report 2024. UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, Cambridge and Gland, 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ref-11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results. United Nations, New York, 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 3, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ref-12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>UNHCR (ed.), Global Trends: <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h57\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 soc.humanitarian.mass-displacement\" data-tk=\"Society, conflict and economy \u00b7 Humanitarian crises\" data-td=\"Large numbers of people forced to leave their homes by conflict, disaster or collapse, straining host areas and services.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H57\" data-tr=\"draft\">Forced Displacement<\/a> in 2024. UNHCR, Copenhagen, June 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ref-13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2025: It Is Time for Reform. UNCTAD, Geneva, 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ref-14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>World Health Organization (ed.), \u201cAmbient (outdoor) air pollution\u201d and \u201c<a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h29\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 poll.air-quality.household-air-pollution\" data-tk=\"Pollution and hazardous substances \u00b7 Air pollution episodes\" data-td=\"Smoke and gases from cooking, heating and lighting with solid fuels or kerosene that accumulate indoors.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H29\" data-tr=\"draft\">Household air pollution<\/a>\u201d fact sheets. WHO, Geneva, retrieved 2026-09-30. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ref-15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ref-16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281\/zenodo.13850054. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5281\/zenodo.13850054\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.5281\/zenodo.13850054<\/a> <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ref-17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>K. O\u2019Brien, L. Garibaldi and A. Agrawal (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Underlying Causes of <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h27\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.species.biodiversity-loss\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Biodiversity and species stress\" data-td=\"Decline in the variety and abundance of species and habitats that weakens services such as pollination, fisheries and soil formation.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H27\" data-tr=\"draft\">Biodiversity Loss<\/a> and the Determinants of Transformative Change. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ref-18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025: Resilience Pays. UNDRR, Geneva, 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ref-19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>World Economic Forum (ed.), Global Risks Report 2026, 21st edition. WEF, Cologny\/Geneva, 2026.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ref-20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>K. Richardson, W. Steffen, W. Lucht et al., \u201cEarth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries,\u201d Science Advances, vol. 9, eadh2458, 2023. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ref-21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>T. M. Lenton, D. I. Armstrong McKay, S. Loriani et al. (eds.), The Global Tipping Points Report 2023. University of Exeter, Exeter, 2023. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ref-22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., \u201cFuture climate risk from compound events,\u201d Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469\u2013477, 2018. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ref-23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>F. Gaupp, J. Hall, S. Hochrainer-Stigler and S. Dadson, \u201cChanging risks of simultaneous global breadbasket failure,\u201d Nature Climate Change, vol. 10, pp. 54\u201357, 2020. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ref-24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>M. Lawrence, T. Homer-Dixon, S. Janzwood, J. Rockstr\u00f6m, O. Renn and J. F. Donges, \u201cGlobal polycrisis: the causal mechanisms of crisis entanglement,\u201d Global Sustainability, vol. 7, e6, 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ref-25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>S. V. Buldyrev, R. Parshani, G. Paul, H. E. Stanley and S. Havlin, \u201cCatastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks,\u201d Nature, vol. 464, pp. 1025\u20131028, 2010.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ref-26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>M. Romanello et al., \u201cThe 2024 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change,\u201d The Lancet, vol. 404, pp. 1847\u20131896, 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ref-27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>World Health Assembly (ed.), WHO Pandemic Agreement, resolution WHA78.1. WHO, Geneva, May 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ref-28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>World Health Assembly (ed.), Amendments to the <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/health\/international-health-regulations-alignment\/\">International Health Regulations<\/a> (2005), resolution WHA77.17. WHO, Geneva, June 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ref-29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>UNFCCC (ed.), <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/climate\/paris-agreement-and-ndc-alignment\/\">Paris Agreement<\/a>. United Nations, Paris, 2015. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ref-30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15\/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ref-31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>UNDRR (ed.), <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/sendai-framework-alignment\/\">Sendai Framework<\/a> for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015\u20132030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ref-32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>United Nations (ed.), Agreement under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea on the Conservation and Sustainable Use of Marine Biological Diversity of Areas beyond National Jurisdiction. United Nations, New York, 2023. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ref-33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>International Sustainability Standards Board (ed.), IFRS S1 General Requirements and IFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures. IFRS Foundation, London, 2023. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ref-34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council of the European Union (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024\/1689 (Artificial Intelligence Act). Official Journal L, 12 July 2024, as amended. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ref-35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>WMO and UNDRR (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2024. WMO and UNDRR, Geneva, 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ref-36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ref-37\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">37<\/span><span>Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (ed.), Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2025. Stanford HAI, Stanford, 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ref-38\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">38<\/span><span>UNESCO World Water Assessment Programme (ed.), The United Nations World Water Development Report 2024: Water for Prosperity and Peace. UNESCO, Paris, 2024.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ref-39\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">39<\/span><span>Copernicus Climate Change Service (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2024. ECMWF, Reading, January 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ref-40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), \u201cWMO confirms 2025 was one of warmest years on record.\u201d Press release. WMO, Geneva, January 2026. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ref-41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2024, WMO-No. 1368. WMO, Geneva, 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ref-42\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">42<\/span><span>UNEP (ed.), Adaptation Gap Report 2024: Come Hell and High Water. UNEP, Nairobi, 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ref-43\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">43<\/span><span>World Bank Group (ed.), Poverty, Prosperity, and Planet Report 2024: Pathways Out of the Polycrisis. World Bank, Washington, DC, 2024.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ref-44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>International Labour Organization (ed.), World Social Protection Report 2024\u201326: Universal Social Protection for Climate Action and a Just Transition. ILO, Geneva, 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ref-45\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">45<\/span><span>S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports, The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026\u20132030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ref-46\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">46<\/span><span>S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Canada Systems Risk &amp; Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ref-47\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">47<\/span><span>J. Rockstr\u00f6m, J. Gupta, D. Qin et al., \u201cSafe and just Earth system boundaries,\u201d Nature, vol. 619, pp. 102\u2013111, 2023. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-ref-48\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">48<\/span><span>World Bank Group (ed.), Poverty, Prosperity, and Planet Report 2024: Pathways Out of the Polycrisis, extreme-poverty estimates. World Bank, Washington, DC, 2024.<\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cc-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cc-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cc-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.2<\/span><span>Publication record<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Title<\/dt><dd>Strategic <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> Report 2026, Global <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h120\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 sys.fragility.polycrisis\" data-tk=\"Systemic and compound events \u00b7 Structural fragility of interconnected systems\" data-td=\"Several global crises, such as conflict, climate, debt, disease and energy, interacting so that each worsens the others and the joint harm exceeds their sum.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H120\" data-tr=\"draft\">Polycrisis<\/a> and Cascading Systems Risk, Baseline Edition<\/dd><dt>Series<\/dt><dd>Reports \u00b7 Strategic Systems Series SR-01<\/dd><dt>Edition<\/dt><dd>Baseline Edition 2026 \u00b7 inaugural annual<\/dd><dt>Version<\/dt><dd>v1.0.0 \u00b7 draft for stewardship review<\/dd><dt>Publication ID<\/dt><dd>NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/dd><dt>Evidence close<\/dt><dd>30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Publication date<\/dt><dd>October 2026<\/dd><dt>DOI<\/dt><dd>concept and version DOI at deposit<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publisher<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Place<\/dt><dd>Toronto<\/dd><dt>Editor<\/dt><dd>Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor<\/dd><dt>Stewards<\/dt><dd>GCRI \u00b7 technical truth \u00b7 GRF \u00b7 public meaning \u00b7 GRA \u00b7 capital meaning<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd>text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source<\/dd><dt>Copyright<\/dt><dd>\u00a9 2026 GCRI \u00b7 Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Language<\/dt><dd>English (en-GB) source edition<\/dd><dt>Correspondence<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway \u00b7 editorial office<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">DISCLAIMER<\/p><p>This edition is published for research, planning and public understanding. It is not a government assessment, an official warning, a rating, a certification, investment advice or an operational authorisation. Reasonable care has been taken with every source; consult the cited originals before relying on any value.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Colophon<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Format<\/dt><dd>A4 portrait \u00b7 screen, print and archival PDF<\/dd><dt>Typefaces<\/dt><dd>Space Grotesk (display) \u00b7 Geist (text) \u00b7 IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) \u00b7 IBM Plex Mono (data)<\/dd><dt>Design standard<\/dt><dd>Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII<\/dd><dt>Accessibility<\/dt><dd>tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure<\/dd><dt>Production<\/dt><dd>Reports editorial team, GCRI<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">HOW TO CORRECT THIS EDITION<\/p><p>Report errors, omissions or objections through the Registry correction pathway. Each report is logged and answered; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version, and the original remains resolvable.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Release path for this version<\/h3><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cc-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table C.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Release path for this version<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">When<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Draft<\/td><td>editorial self-check complete at evidence close<\/td><td>October 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Steward review<\/td><td>five passes on the exact draft (keys T \u00b7 M \u00b7 F \u00b7 N)<\/td><td>Q4 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Approval<\/td><td>publication authority approves the exact digest<\/td><td>before release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Deposit<\/td><td>concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set<\/td><td>at release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Succession<\/td><td>the 2027 polycrisis edition reports changes against this baseline<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Current version<\/dt><dd>v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review<\/dd><dt>Previous edition<\/dt><dd>none, first edition of the series<\/dd><dt>Next edition<\/dt><dd>NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Latest version<\/dt><dd>resolve the concept DOI or the registry record<\/dd><dt>Correction route<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway<\/dd><dt>Notice types<\/dt><dd><code>erratum<\/code> \u00b7 <code>addendum<\/code> \u00b7 <code>supersession<\/code> \u00b7 <code>withdrawal<\/code><\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NO CORRECTIONS \u2260 NO LIMITS<\/p><p>The absence of corrections does not mean the absence of limitations. Limitations and uncertainty are stated where they arise in the edition.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><div id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-corrections\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cc-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cc-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cc-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.3<\/span><span>Corrections log<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nx-nr-corr\"><p class=\"nx-nr-corr-sum\"><span class=\"nx-nr-corr-n\">0<\/span><span>correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition&#8217;s current version.<\/span><\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Version<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Date<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Change<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Notice<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Edition\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">SR-01<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Version\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/td><td data-label=\"Date\">October 2026<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">Draft<\/td><td data-label=\"Change\">Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,<\/td><td data-label=\"Notice\">None<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-source\">Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.<\/p><\/div><\/section><\/div><div id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-outputs\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cc-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cc-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cc-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.4<\/span><span>Open record<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nx-nr-os\"><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>This edition&#8217;s open record<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-nr-os-kv\"><dt>Publication ID<\/dt><dd>NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/dd><dt>Series alias<\/dt><dd>NR-STR-SR-01-2026-BL<\/dd><dt>DOI<\/dt><dd>Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata<\/dd><dt>Versions<\/dt><dd>Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest<\/dd><dt>Bundle<\/dt><dd>RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\" rel=\"noopener\">CC BY 4.0<\/a> (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Credit and identity<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-nr-os-kv\"><dt>ORCID<\/dt><dd>Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record<\/dd><dt>ROR<\/dt><dd>Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone<\/dd><dt>CRediT<\/dt><dd>Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing<\/dd><dt>Account<\/dt><dd>None needed to contribute; never a password<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Find and follow<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p\">Search the open indexes for Global Polycrisis; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.<\/p><ul class=\"nx-nr-os-links\"><li><a href=\"https:\/\/openalex.org\/works?search=Nexus%20Reports%20Global%20Polycrisis\" rel=\"noopener\">OpenAlex<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/explore.openaire.eu\/search\/find?fv0=Nexus%20Reports%20Global%20Polycrisis&amp;f0=q\" rel=\"noopener\">OpenAIRE<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/search.crossref.org\/search\/works?q=Nexus%20Reports%20Global%20Polycrisis\" rel=\"noopener\">Crossref<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/commons.datacite.org\/?query=Nexus%20Reports%20Global%20Polycrisis\" rel=\"noopener\">DataCite Commons<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/zenodo.org\/search?q=Nexus%20Reports%20Global%20Polycrisis\" rel=\"noopener\">Zenodo<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/archive.softwareheritage.org\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Software Heritage<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/osf.io\/prereg\/\" rel=\"noopener\">OSF preregistration<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/via.hypothes.is\/https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-01\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Annotate with Hypothesis<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Mirrors and harvest<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p\">The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-mt-3\"><figure class=\"nx-nr-code\"><figcaption class=\"nx-nr-code-cap\">InvenioRDM metadata for a contribution on Global Polycrisis, prefilled from this page<\/figcaption><pre class=\"nx-nr-pre\" tabindex=\"0\"><code>{&#10;  &quot;metadata&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;resource_type&quot;: {&#10;      &quot;id&quot;: &quot;dataset&quot;&#10;    },&#10;    &quot;title&quot;: &quot;Evidence on Global Polycrisis for Nexus Reports&quot;,&#10;    &quot;publication_date&quot;: &quot;YYYY-MM-DD&quot;,&#10;    &quot;creators&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;person_or_org&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;type&quot;: &quot;personal&quot;,&#10;          &quot;family_name&quot;: &quot;Your family name&quot;,&#10;          &quot;given_name&quot;: &quot;Your given name&quot;,&#10;          &quot;identifiers&quot;: [&#10;            {&#10;              &quot;scheme&quot;: &quot;orcid&quot;,&#10;              &quot;identifier&quot;: &quot;0000-0000-0000-0000&quot;&#10;            }&#10;          ]&#10;        },&#10;        &quot;affiliations&quot;: [&#10;          {&#10;            &quot;id&quot;: &quot;ROR identifier of your organisation&quot;&#10;          }&#10;        ]&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;description&quot;: &quot;What it is, where its record is kept and how it bears on Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk.&quot;,&#10;    &quot;rights&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;id&quot;: &quot;cc-by-4.0&quot;&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;subjects&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Nexus Reports&quot;&#10;      },&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Global Polycrisis&quot;&#10;      },&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Strategic Systems Report \u00b7 SR-01&quot;&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;related_identifiers&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;identifier&quot;: &quot;https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-01\/&quot;,&#10;        &quot;scheme&quot;: &quot;url&quot;,&#10;        &quot;relation_type&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;id&quot;: &quot;issupplementto&quot;&#10;        },&#10;        &quot;resource_type&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;id&quot;: &quot;publication-report&quot;&#10;        }&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;version&quot;: &quot;1.0.0&quot;&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;custom_fields&quot;: {},&#10;  &quot;access&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;record&quot;: &quot;public&quot;,&#10;    &quot;files&quot;: &quot;public&quot;&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;files&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;enabled&quot;: true&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;parent&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;communities&quot;: {&#10;      &quot;default&quot;: &quot;nexusreports&quot;&#10;    }&#10;  }&#10;}<\/code><\/pre><\/figure><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-hook\" data-nx-research-hub=\"slot\" data-nx-research-context=\"{&quot;org&quot;:&quot;NXS&quot;,&quot;site&quot;:&quot;nxs&quot;,&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-01\/&quot;,&quot;kind&quot;:&quot;edition&quot;,&quot;subject&quot;:&quot;Global Polycrisis&quot;,&quot;series&quot;:[&quot;Strategic Systems Report \u00b7 SR-01&quot;]}\" hidden><\/div><\/section><\/div><div id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-pillars\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cc-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cc-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-01-cc-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.5<\/span><span>Where this edition sits among the six pillars<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.<\/p><ol class=\"nx-pl-list\"><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F03 Sealed observations and indicator series<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Foundry<\/span> Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F04 After-action and scenario findings for<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Universe<\/span> After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Foundry<\/span> National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>Applied in editions<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Standards<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a>: applied in editions.<\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>SR-01 edition<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Reports<\/span> Global <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h120\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 sys.fragility.polycrisis\" data-tk=\"Systemic and compound events \u00b7 Structural fragility of interconnected systems\" data-td=\"Several global crises, such as conflict, climate, debt, disease and energy, interacting so that each worsens the others and the joint harm exceeds their sum.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H120\" data-tr=\"draft\">Polycrisis<\/a> 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.<\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F06 Method and correction findings as change<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Standards<\/span> Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Universe<\/span> Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>Taught in the open<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Academy<\/span> Risk Academy: taught in the open.<\/li><\/ol><p class=\"nx-caption\"><span>What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; SR-01 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.<\/span><\/p><ul class=\"nx-pl-legend\" aria-label=\"Pillars\"><li data-pillar=\"labs\" data-hue=\"social\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-labs\/\">Labs<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-foundry\/\">Foundry<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/universe.nexus\/\">Universe<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/\">Nexus Standards<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/\">Reports<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/\">Risk Academy<\/a><\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Handoff<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Between<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What crosses, and when<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr data-pillar=\"foundry\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F03<\/span><\/td><td>Foundry to Reports<\/td><td>Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"universe\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F04<\/span><\/td><td>Universe to Reports<\/td><td>After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"foundry\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F05<\/span><\/td><td>Foundry to Reports<\/td><td>National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"standards\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">Ring<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus Standards to Reports<\/td><td>Nexus Standards: applied in editions.<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"standards\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F06<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Nexus Standards<\/td><td>Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"universe\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F12<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Universe<\/td><td>Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"academy\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">Ring<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Risk Academy<\/td><td>Risk Academy: taught in the open.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><\/article><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-noprint\"><section id=\"nx-sec-nr-gateway\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"systemic\" data-tone=\"alt\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-gateway-h\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Contribute<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-nr-gateway-h\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Send evidence or a correction on Global Polycrisis.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Reports is the Consortium&#8217;s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.<\/p><div class=\"nx-chips\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">Nexus Standards<\/span><span class=\"nx-chip\">Strategic Systems<\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><ul class=\"nx-dest\"><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/nexus-reports\/write-to-us\/contact\/\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Email<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">Gateway GW-STD<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">Send it from this page<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">Evidence, a correction, a case, a method, a review, a translation or profile input. It arrives tagged with this page, so the editor who owns it receives it.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/nexus-reports\/open-science\/#nx-sec-zenodo\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Zenodo<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">Open deposit<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">Deposit it and submit to the community<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">Publish your own record on Zenodo with your ORCID iD, then submit it to the Reports community there. Curators review it; the DOI stays yours.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/nexus-reports\/contribute\/\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">Nexus Standards<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">See every way to contribute<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">The contribution types, how each is reviewed, what credit you receive, the licence and what is never accepted.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nx-live-slot\" data-nxf-slot=\"contribute\" data-nxf-kind=\"workflow\" data-nxf-resource=\"nexus:\/\/nxs\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-01\/full#contribute\" data-nxf-title=\"Contribute evidence\" data-nxf-height=\"480\" hidden><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-3\">Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. 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